Most of the movement both in feelings about Ayotte and in the horse race has come with moderate voters. Moderates make up the largest bloc of the New Hampshire electorate at 47%, and Hodes' lead with them has expanded from just 8 points at 47-39 in April to now 21 points at 51-30. Ayotte's favorability with them has gone from +5 at 32/27 to -19 at 27/46.
The Palin endorsement may well be playing a role in this. 51% of voters in the state say they're less likely to back a Palin endorsed candidate to only 26% who say that support would make them more inclined to vote for someone. Among moderates that widens to 65% who say a Palin endorsement would turn them off to 14% who it would make more supportive.
What's so LOL funny is how obvious this is to anyone with even a casual acquaintance of the reaction to Palin in New Hampshire in 2008. But Ayotte campaign manager Brooks Kochvar is from the Michelle Bachmann and Club for Growth wings of the GOP, so they had to go ahead and spend lots of time seeking out the endorsement only to find out the hard way it would be an albatross.