( - promoted by Laura Clawson)
Now that the Equality Bill is temporarily behind us, I want to get back to a poll that Republicans were touting in trying to establish Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta as the Great Hope of the NHGOP. Well, Great Hope in Waiting, as he and others file their nails waiting for John E. Sununu to decide whether he wants to go down to inglorious defeat again.
The poll wasn't good news for Republicans or Frank Guinta. It showed Frank trailing Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter by 9 points. Here he is, the best Republicans seem to have to offer, the well known Mayor from the largest city in the district, and he only is pulling 34 percent. Not very promising. Also, there are larger issues at play here that should worry John F. Sununu and the rest of the Republican - well, calling it a bench would insult benches, so I'll call it a stool. With the changes to the electorate we have seen both here in NH and nationally, it's a terrible time to be a Republican running for office. |
| It's also tough to take the NRCC's "poll" seriously. It is no secret that Republicans are weighting their internal polls based on the 2004 election numbers, in their effort to convince otherwise hesitant potential candidates to make a commitment. That ignores the realities of the electoral landscape across the country. In New Hampshire, we experienced dramatic increases in Democratic registration thanks to the 2006 midterms, the 2008 Presidential primary and the 2008 general election. The 1st CD is no exception.
Weighting a poll based on what the electorate looked like four years ago is silly Last year, the Obama, Shaheen, Lynch, Hodes and Shea-Porter campaigns not only were responsible for registering more Democratic voters, they also solidified independents behind the Democratic agenda. A poll that doesn't account for these changes is worthless.
As the Washington Post recently pointed out, Republicams are in trouble across the country:
"Just 21 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans. That's the lowest since the fall of 1983, when just 19 percent identified themselves as Republicans. Party identification does fluctuate with events. But as a snapshot indicator, the latest figures highlight the impact of Obama's opening months on the Republican Party. From a high-water mark of 35 percent in the fall of 2003, Republicans have slid steadily to their present state of affairs."
A Pew Research Center poll shows that same gap in the Northeast.
"The Northeast stands out from other parts of the country not for the magnitude of the shift, but the overall balance in favor of Democrats. Even in 2004 -- when there were nearly as many Republicans as Democrats in the rest of the country -- Democrats held a substantial 35% to 26% advantage in Northeastern states. That advantage has widened to a nearly two-to-one edge (38% to 20%) in 2009."
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/12...
Other than bad polls, the NRCC does not have much to offer Mayor Guinta. As the recent special election in New York proved, where an unknown Democrat defeated a veteran Republican politician in a heavily Republican district, their strategic guidance isn't exactly stellar. While they spent a lot on attack ads, it obviously didn't help, and they won't be able to spend that kind of money in every district next year. And will they really spend scant resources to try to defeat an incumbent in a Democratic state when their own incumbent congressmen will be demanding money to save their seats? If Frank Guinta thinks so, he is listening to the Siren's song just before crashing on the rocks. The NRCC are the same geniuses who put the final nail in Charlie Bass's last campaign when they jammed voters' phone lines with calls violating NH law.
The GOP's problems don't stop there. Arlen Specter's defection says it all.
So, you have bad polls, bad strategy, and a party in disarray. And then, on the other side, we have Carol Shea Porter, an excellent congresswoman with an incredible grass roots base, who has made a name for herself in her efforts for veterans. You also have a strong party, a strong organization, and what looks to be an incredibly strong ticket.
Frank Guinta may want to rethink his career path. |
