UNH Poll: Ayotte 39% Hodes 35%

I'll await the analysis (4.00 / 1)

But this is striking:

Fav/Unfav Ratings
Gregg 53/24
Shaheen 50/36
Hodes 32/23
Ayotte 40/8
Bass 33/23
Tausch 5/4
LaMontagne 5/4

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by: JimC @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:12:40 PM CDT

Andy Smith Polls (4.00 / 2)

Smart guy, but he can't poll worth shit.

His method:  (1) Find top hat, (2) Insert random numbers, (3) Keep picking until you get two within a reasonable proximity from each other.

This one is particularly sketchy.  I don't think that 39% of Ayotte's family members can identify her, much less 39% of NH residents.  

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:23:29 PM CDT

this one is goofy, but (0.00 / 0)

it does make me worry a little about Hodes's name rec. With numbers like these, I worry that the GOP might have a chance to define him w/some voters before he can define himself...Oh, wait! the GOP, both federally and in NH, are in free fall. Nevermind.

The national party, I suspect, will be perfectly happy with Fred Tausch for one simple reason - he can self-fund. Contrary to all the nonsense you're hearing about 2010 becoming the new 1994, the GOP faces a really tough year in terms of senate elections. With retirements in Fl., KS., MO, OH, and the situation in Pennsylvania, the GOP have a LOT of seats they have to hang onto. Add to that Diaperman Vitter, and their prospects don't look terrific. I have a hard time believing that $ will pour into NH to help someone who has either already lost to Hodes (Bass) or never run for office (Ayotte). Sununu got big bucks spent on him because he was a incumbent and Dad likely still has important friends in DC. But I think the NRSC is likely to figure this one's done and let Fred spend his money on a senate race - while they spend theirs to protect vulnerable incumbents and to try to keep seats in the above-mentioned states. I think they are unlikely to throw good 2010 money after bad 2008 money...

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by: measurestaken @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:07:22 PM CDT

What is the correct split? (0.00 / 0)

n/t

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by: JimC @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:50:58 AM CDT

D: 29.5%, R: 29.3%, U 41.3% (4.00 / 2)

Following last November's same-day registrations.

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by: elwood @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 19:15:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hodes Might Not Be Alone (0.00 / 0)

Let's keep in mind that Paul Hodes might not be the only Democratic candidate for United States Senate in 2010.  Maybe someone else will run, and we should give him or her a chance to make a case for nomination.

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 20:21:50 PM CDT

My imagination lags (4.00 / 3)

Carol has ruled our running. Unless John Durkin or Dick Swett jumps into the race, no other Democratic candidate would have any experience representing NH in Washington.

Its hard for me to see issues where I would find a less qualified candidate more suitable than Hodes.  

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by: elwood @ Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 06:16:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Let's Imagine... (0.00 / 0)

Having "been in Washington" doesn't seem to me to make anyone qualified to run for office.  Issues are much more important -- at least let's hope so.

Whether Democrat or Republican, being the recepient of vast sums of questionable Political Action Committee sources of contributions should bother all of us.  

And, we're still bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Plus, we have a Congress seemingly willing to "compromise" on health care depending on what the insurance lobby (i.e. PACs) will allow Congress to do.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 08:11:56 AM CDT

Well, maybe we disagree. (0.00 / 0)

I have never supported Jesse Jackson or Ralph Nader (though others in the family have) in part because I believe learning the ropes is valuable and jumping right into a top-tier office such as Senator is an act of ego by the candidate and an act of recklessness by the person voting for him/her.

But maybe you're hinting at a Splaine run. New Hampshire hasn't come close to exploiting your talents yet, so I'm listening.

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by: elwood @ Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 17:47:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL (4.00 / 1)

Funny guy.  There's a decent possibility I won't run for NH State Rep. again, let alone anything else.  The US Senate is way too much work for me.  But I'm hoping, actually, that we will see a Democratic primary in the Senate race in 2010 because I think it makes for a better eventual nominee against whomever the Republicans put up.    

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Sun Jul 05, 2009 at 18:49:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]