An Obvious Attempt to Set the Bar Unrealistically Low

Remember when... (4.00 / 2)

Wasn't a Hodes figure in the range of $300,000 for a half an early quarter thought by The Pundits to be low?

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Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 02:52:40 AM UTC

It was low, and (4.00 / 2)

it wasn't really half a quarter, insofar as he should have been raising for his House reelect the whole time even if he wasn't running for senate.

And had Ayotte raised only that much, as one of the GOP's most favored recruits nationally, it would have been low.

As it is, she cleared the bar, but she didn't exactly shatter expectations.

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by: Laura Clawson @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 14:08:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair enough, but (0.00 / 0)

It was a much earlier quarter with lower interest, the focus was on Gregg and not on the race to replace Gregg, and unlike Ayotte, Hodes didn't quit his job to become a full-time fundraiser for a campaign that neither side is really doing much other than fundraising for so far. (FWIW, I'm glad that's all they're doing--federal election cycles are too long, leave time for actual governing

Moreover, my point was less about the comparison and more about my objection to the media setting the goalposts.  It's not new.  Obviously Vietnam was a terrible mistake, but let's look back at 1968.  One name was printed on the ballot in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential primary: Eugene McCarthy.  LBJ had not announced his candidacy for re-election and was not on the ballot.  Regardless, as a passive, unannounced write-in, Johnson beat the only candidate with his name on the ballot by 6 points.  But the media decided that winning as a write-in is winning losing nonetheless, and LBJ eventually dropped out of the race.  And RFK was assassinated, and Humphrey was nominated, and Nixon won the election.

Overstepping of punditry creates self-fulfulling prophecies on a massive scale.  Just ask anyone who was a 2008 Democratic National Convention delegate for Biden, Dodd, Richardson, or Kucinich.  Oh wait; nobody was.  They didn't have the name recognition when the race started, so they were completely ignored by the media, and didn't stand a chance. Let the voters decide.

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Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 20:03:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

$$$$$$ (4.00 / 9)

The Ayotte campaign has made a strategic mistake. It decided to ignore pretty much everything else and focus strictly on money, thinking that by hauling in a bucket of cash, she could clear the primary field. To the extent she has weaknesses as a candidate, they figured the money would make up for that by buying a lot of media and direct mail next summer, when people will be paying attention.

The flaw in the strategy is that while flying under the radar may have worked four years ago, the non-money phase of campaigns now start really early. You can't get away with sending an unprepared neophyte candidate out to a few party events. With youtube and 7/24/365 traditional and new media coverage, a candidate with no message and no answers, just a resume and a couple of catch phrases about keeping government out of your wallet, is in danger of falling flat, and of being caught doing and saying dumb things. Which is what has happened to Kelly Ayotte. Instead of clearing the field, her weak performance is attracting more candidates to the field.

It almost doesn't matter how much money she raises this quarter, because the campaign has stumbled so badly out of the gate that even if she raised a million bucks, there are at least two self funders looking at the race who won't be scared out by that number. And, a candidate like Ovide doesn't need to match her dollar for dollar.

Her campaign has really messed up.



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 12:31:35 PM UTC

Excellent observation. (4.00 / 1)

You have to be a candidate before you can be a nominee.

Social Media Director for Jackie Cilley for Governor. Follow her on Twitter & Facebook!

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by: Dean Barker @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:10:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Check (4.00 / 1)

Press release from Hodes capaign icludes following;

Congressman Paul Hodes has raised nearly $600,000 for his US Senate campaign in the third quarter, bringing his yearly total to nearly $1.6 million raised.  His campaign will have over $1.1 million on hand.

That is a lot of money to have on hand. Wow.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 16:06:52 PM UTC

John DiStaso's Granite Status: Hodes raises big money (0.00 / 0)

http://www.theunionleader.com/...

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 17:23:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]