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Fergus Sees NY-23 Play Out in NH

by: Jennifer Daler

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 13:31:59 PM EDT


Not yet behind the pay wall is a column by former NH-GOP chair Fergus Cullen, where he compares the state of the NH GOP to that of the internecine struggle taking place in the race for US Rep in NY-23. There, GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava is being challenged to her right by Doug Hoffman, who is running on the Conservative line. Sarah "Barracuda" Palin has come out in favor of Hoffman, while Newt Gingrich and Michael Steele are supporting Scozzafava.

Cullen sees a similar dynamic here in the Granite State.

The situation has similarities to a special election for state representative that will take place in Concord next week. Jim MacKay was a rarity: a Republican who could win in Concord. He served five terms as a moderate before being swept out in the Obama tide last fall. MacKay was prepared to run for the seat again, but after learning a splinter group of disaffected conservatives would oppose him in a primary he probably could not win MacKay changed parties and is running as a Democrat.

I disagree with Cullen about MacKay's being swept out in an Obama tide. If we had had straight ticket voting still, maybe. But as I recall, there was a Republican primary whereby long time moderate Republican Liz Hager lost to some "free staters". Liz would also have been re-elected as a Republican, IMO, adding another seat to their caucus. Her defeat and the specter of "free staters" instead of the more moderate Republicans  Concord was used to sending to the State House hurt MacKay.  I believe he was the highest Republican vote getter in a race that turned Concord's State Rep delegation totally blue.

The 2010 election will be a moment of truth for the NH GOP and the GOP in general. Will Jennifer Horn beat Charlie Bass in a primary by running to his right? Will a more conservative candidate than Kelly Ayotte beat her in a primary for US Senate? Will we ever find out exactly where Ayotte is on that continuum?

Update: we now can see where Ayotte lands: squarely with Sarah "Barracuda".

Pindell

"As I travel across our state on the campaign trail, I have said we must stand up for fiscal sanity in Washington, we must have pro-growth economic policies that will create jobs," Ayotte said in a statement to NHPoliticalReport.com. "Because of that, I endorse Doug Hoffman."

Nationally, the GOP is doing badly:

the GOP's brand is still a mess. According to the poll, just 25% have a positive opinion of the party (compared with 42% for the Dem Party), which ties the GOP's low-water mark in the survey and which is a worse score than it ever had during the Bush presidency.

More on this at DKos.

If you're in the Concord district having the special election Tuesday, please go out and vote for Jim MacKay. He's a great legislator, an advocate for the mentally ill (who really need one about now) and will do a great job for Concord and the state. He's a welcome addition to the Democratic Party in NH.

Jennifer Daler :: Fergus Sees NY-23 Play Out in NH
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Scozzafoza is Toast (4.00 / 1)
Scozzafoza may have the GOP line, but Hoffman has become the de facto Republican candidate in NY-23 and will likely win the votes of party loyalists next Tuesday. Former Gov. George Pataki has endorsed Hoffman. Hoffman was also endorsed by Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the New York Post, former presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson - Thompson's done a TV ad for Hoffman, for goodness sake!

The dynamic is similar to what happened in Connecticut when Ned Lamont won the Democratic primary and Joe Lieberman ran as an independent. The Republican rank & file swiftly migrated to Lieberman, leaving the party's nominee in the dust.

This kind of election is old hat in New York. The Empire State's weird election laws allow for multiple parties and permit candidates to run on multiple lines. Experienced voters aren't surprised to find their favorite candidate representing an unfamiliar party. Republican Mayor John Lindsay was re-elected in New York City in 1969 on the Liberal Party line after losing the GOP primary.

The mass migration to Hoffman shows just how out of touch both Steele and Gingrich are with their own party - and what the baseline GOP platform is.

Hoffman's most successful lit piece compares his position with those of Scozzafoza and Democrat Bill Owens. He's anti-choice, anti-gay marriage, anti-taxes, anti-deficit, pro-gun, anti-health care reform - against most kinds of government involvement in the business of business and in favor of government involvement in our personal lives.

This is the Republican Party today. There is no "internecine war," the Doug Hoffmans of the party are simply shooting the wounded. Standing and fighting sounds like a noble idea, but the odds are against the Liz Hagers and Jim MacKays who belonged to a very different political party.


Risky in NH (0.00 / 0)
For this faction to emerge as the identity of the new party is a very risky move for Granite State Republicans.

Traditional NH Rs are fiscally conservative, and socially moderate. Others chime in please, because I've heard from a great many Republicans here who told me they were surprised to find themselves voting for Obama, but they felt abandoned by their party.

I suspect even Andy Smith would concur: NH conservatives are not where the radical disruptors are. A lot of conservatives are now free agents. May their loss be our gain!

No'm Sayn?


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