New ARG Poll: Shaheen over Sununu, 57-29

Ha! "Owe me a coke!" (0.00 / 0)

I just deleted my diary, as yours is more succinct, but I'll throw in what I had below here:

Not content with the shocker from Suffolk (500 repsondents, 4.38 MoE) that John E.'s at 31% of those supporting re-election, here's another "kaboom" from ARG in a Shaheen-Sununu match-up.  In a word, the former governor and possible candidate is destroying him:

2008 US Senate

  Shaheen   Sununu  Undecided

All voters  57%  29%  14%

Republicans  30%  61%  9%
Democrats  96%  1%  3%
Undeclared  50%  25%  25%

Mar 2007  44%  34%  22%
Oct 2002  43%  51%  6%

The poll breakdown: 553 interviews, 166 Repubs, 155 Dems, and 232 Indies, MoE 4.2

Between this and last night's news, only message shouts through loud and clear: we have a real chance to replace the Sprinter come November 2008.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:00:32 AM CDT

I wonder if he'll be primaried? (0.00 / 0)

With numbers like these, why not?

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by: elwood @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:05:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, the Club for Growth (4.00 / 1)

is already backing him with Charlie Bass' Main Street Partnership going along in an effort to stop that from happening, but perhaps we can convince Fran Wendelboe (sp?) and her Reagan group to get someone going.

Hard though, to find someone more right-wing than John E., unless you can ocnvince the candidate to believe the MSM nonsense that he's a "moderate."

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:09:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I was thinking of a "moderate" Republican (0.00 / 0)

running against him to his left.

A Doug Keough, or an Andy Peterson.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:20:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

30% of Republicans (0.00 / 0)

would vote for Shaheen over Sununu.

I wonder: isn't that around the same number of Repubs who are disapprove of the Iraq war in NH?

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:11:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't WANT to be the wet blanket (0.00 / 0)

... I'm just drawn that way.

Something's wrong with this poll. Maybe it's just too early, but the results are too good. Thirty percent of Republicans won't vote for their party's most likely Senate nominee in a presidential election year? No way.

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by: JimC @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:27:47 AM CDT

What percentage of Republicans (4.00 / 1)

voted for John Lynch in 2006? He won with 75% of the overall vote.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:32:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I have no idea (4.00 / 1)

But non-presidential years are different, and governors' races are different. Why else did Massachusetts have Republican governors for 16 years?

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by: JimC @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:36:42 AM CDT

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Here's what (0.00 / 0)

ARG reminds us with similar polling in 2002:

In October 2002: 10% of Republicans said they would vote for Shaheen and 85% said they would vote for Sununu. 86% of Democrats said they would vote for Shaheen and 8% said they would vote for Sununu. 45% of undeclared voters said they would vote for Shaheen and 46% said they would vote for Sununu.

Can anyone who follows polls tell me if 500 + change respondents is a good-sized sample, since we have back-to-back polls with around that number? It strikes me as modest, but not too small a size as to be unreliable. 

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:40:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's a good sample (0.00 / 0)

I think anything over 400 is a good sample, if the demographics are OK.

The issue with any poll is the screening. Are these likely voters? That's less of an issue in presidential years, because turnout is so much higher, but it's still an issue.

For example, Gore being the immediate frontrunner? I don't buy that either, not with a strong field ... but it's not my state.

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by: JimC @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:46:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bush Approval/Disapproval (4.00 / 1)

The fact that Bush's approval rating in New Hampshire in this poll is only 14% might have something to do with it.  When the Republicans actually have a nominee, other than Bush, the number might go up.

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by: gradysdad @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:46:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good point. (4.00 / 1)

It'll be funny watching the Sprinter stuck like glue to whoever the "I'm not Bush" nominee is.

Of course, so many of the Repub candidates are strong supporters of so many of W.'s policies, I wonder what will happen.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 10:49:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Shaheen's still not (4.00 / 2)

a real candidate and may be getting a little halo effect from people just remembering her fondly and thinking they like her better than Sununu.  Once she became a real prospect some might stray from her.  But better she get in with some time to make her case than that she get in already facing significant hostility.

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by: Laura Clawson @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:05:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, my one (major) criticism (4.00 / 2)

of this poll is the same one I had the last time back in March, i.e., that it's horribly unfair that we now have three candidates campaigning away, and communicating their message to anyone who will listen, fundraising and racking up endorsements, and ARG doesn't poll them, instead choosing to poll someone who will not even make a decision until September.

I think it is incumbent upon ARG to explain what they intend by polling Shaheen twice and no one else, or else they may face criticism from some quarters that they are doing Shaheen's or the DSCC's work for them.  It gives off a bad impression, whether it's a justified impression or not (and I have absolutely no way of knowing).

That said, the poll is still important news, imho.


birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:33:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I want to know too. (0.00 / 0)

This is my big question/problem with the ARG poll, especially in light of the Suffolk poll showing such low re-elect numbers for the sprinter.

It's great that the polled Shaheen, now how about everyone else?

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by: NateP @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 14:22:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not to Play Devil's Advocate, but. . . (0.00 / 0)

Shaheen is the only Democrat with substantial name recognition right now.  It is extremely early in the cycle:  Only insiders (like us) are paying attention, and Swett, Marchand, and Buckey have not yet had the opportunity to make their cases to voters.  Polling Buckey or Marchand would be like polling "generic Democratic candidate," whereas surveying Katrina (my choice) would glean more information about her husband's standing than her own.

The poll's greatest value is as evidence of Sununu's vulnerability.  But it clearly overstates its case, and no one should assume that this race is in the bag (or anywhere close).

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 17:37:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It doesn't "clearly overstate" (0.00 / 0)

given that the Suffolk University poll also showed Sununu with only 31% believing he "deserves re-election."

There's no point in looking at data if we immediately discount it because our gut says different.

But, agreed, everyone needs to campaign hard.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 18:49:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with Jim (0.00 / 0)

ARG has a sketchy polling history.  Jeanne is a strong candidate, but let's not delude ourselves:  NH is a purple state, not a blue one, and the Sununu family is 7-0 in general elections. 

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 12:23:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The country's just waking up (0.00 / 0)

and Republicans are realizing that they've been "took."
My meme for the day is that under our Constitution, the people are the government.  The people we designate to perform certain functions are the "agents of government."
So, when someone proposes to "drown" the government in a bathtub and that person is an agent of government, then that sounds like a treasonable proposal.
Of course, if the government is all of the people, drowning them is not going to be easy.  First, they would have to be rendered comatose or, at least, immobilized.
Immobilization, the natural consequence of the fright response to fear, had certainly been achieved until a few people sounded the alarm.
Now the people are shaking off their fears and reasserting control and the agents of government in the White House still haven't caught on.
They will.  Once awakened, the people are immune to the soporifics.

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by: hannah @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:34:06 AM CDT

If I'm reading this correctly (4.00 / 1)

then about 30% of people want to vote for Sununu regardless of whether it's Shaheen or some unknown democrat.  NH voters just don't want him back.

I think these polls have to poke a big hole in the "only Shaheen can win" argument.  Certainly she's a strong candidate, but Sununu is looking very weak right now.

Where do we go from here?

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by: Gavin @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 14:53:23 PM CDT

By election day both sides will be chewing their nails.... (0.00 / 0)

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 16:05:37 PM CDT

Possible (0.00 / 0)

and everyone needs to campaign that way, in any case.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 16:24:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hurray! (4.00 / 2)

This is great news!  It sounds like a lot of people remember Governor Shaheen's record of accomplishment on so many issues (about which you can read on http://draftshaheen....)! 
I don't like this ARG poll, however. It is silly to do a horse race poll with just two people when there are announced candidates. I don't like it when pollsters try to impose their view of the world on everyone. If anything, this poll hurts Governor Shaheen, because people will be offended, and say, "Oh, look, there they go, trying to select the candidate without any input." Which makes me wonder what the motivation was behind the poll, now that I think about it (I can be very conspiratorial). If Governor Shaheen runs, I know she will work hard to earn every vote, and to earn the nomination, just like she did when she ran for governor. 
It is also a weird poll  - it asked three questions?  No real issues questions?

Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 

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by: Kathy Sullivan @ Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 16:07:12 PM CDT

Profile of ARG's Dick Bennett (0.00 / 0)

in today's UL.

This is interesting:

To reach 1,200 likely New Hampshire voters (600 for each major party's primary) willing to talk, Bennett's people need to call nearly four times that number. In Nevada, the ratio is 10 to 1 because Granite Staters are more interested in politics and more likely to vote on the presidential field.

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by: elwood @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 06:20:08 AM CDT

Indeed: (0.00 / 0)

His political polling is funded by companies and lobbyists who sponsor individual state polls. His subscriptions provide people with more detailed numbers sooner than polling results released to reporters or on his Internet site, americanresearchgroup.com.

So who paid for the latest Shaheen/Sununu poll, I wonder?

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 09:53:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]