NH-Sen: Bill the Delphic Oracle, and some Early Read 2Q Numbers

Dean, you missed the real story in that Monitor column.... (0.00 / 0)

In 2007, in Democratic circles, and in Independent circles, Jeanne Shaheen will speak for herself. Her husband will not speak for her.  This is not 1950 in MOST circles....

In some NH Republican circles Republican women get the arcane US version of Talaban treatment for women.  Fran Wendelboe, clearly the most qualified candidate to run for State Republican Chair, was twice dumped by a State Chair with much less experience in either politics, or campaigning.  Wendelboe has set up her own headquarters, complete with air conditioning.

Her less  qualified male Party Chair victor has apparently moved the Republican headquarters to space that has no air conditioning.

Looks like Republicans may want to re-think passing over their more qualified women candidates for less qualified, less experienced, men.

No air conditioning for a State Party Headquarters?  That is funny. Absolutely and completely funny!

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 11:33:37 AM CDT

IIRC, she has moved into the old GOP HQ (0.00 / 0)

which the Party presumably left because it could no longer afford it.

Wendelboe's group doesn't have massive bills from the phone jamming settlement. If she were now GOP chair, she would.

It will be interesting to find out who is funding her group.

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by: elwood @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 12:22:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

To imply that I'm a sexist (0.00 / 0)

because every single press article that mentions a possible Shaheen run quotes Bill Shaheen as the authoritative word is so bizarre it almost defies analysis.

Please let me know when Jeanne Shaheen herself says something about her possible run. 2007 is now half over.

I'll go back now to my secret conspiracy to ban all women from politics.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 18:51:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I didn't think that was aimed at you (0.00 / 0)

Rather, at the media.

But really, people can't have it both ways. If Jeanne wants press attention when her husband speaks, carry on. If she doesn't, she can tell him to shut up, or make her own statement.

The idea that Mr. Shaheen can make a statement and the Governor has nothing to do with it is too cute by half.

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by: elwood @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 19:27:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My appologies, Dean.... (4.00 / 2)

I wasn't aiming it at you, personally, nor was I trying to imply that you were sexist.  I don't believe that. 

Because of those press reports we know what Billy's opinion is.  Governor Shaheen may or may not share that opinion.  I'm going to wait and hear from her before I reach any conclusions.  Husbands and wives disagree all the time.  My comments were very limited to that point.

I do believe that Fran Wendelboe was treated poorly because she's a very assertive women who dared not know her place in the Republican Party.  But that is a very different situation, with very different circumstances.

Again, your postings that quote Billy and provide some sort of analysis about those quotes are very fair and very interesting.  I completely and totally apologize for any comments that could be construed otherwise.  I just disagree that his statements can be parsed and dissected for too much precision.  For all we know he could be sleeping on the couch because of those comments....  :)

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 19:42:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think you're stretching it (0.00 / 0)

It's certainly true that husbands and wives disagree :-)

But the Shaheens have been a political couple in the public eye for a lot of years now. They know the rules; it's hard to believe Mr. Shaheen is speaking out of school.

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by: elwood @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 19:51:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thank you. (4.00 / 1)

And my apologies for not getting your point.

While I have been less enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton than others thus far, I am hopeful that we will catch up with the rest of the world someday and have a female president, as well as a much larger share of female public servants in federal and state races than we currently do.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 20:28:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is anyone else shocked?? (0.00 / 0)

That Katrina raised over a million dollars in two quarters?  Even by today's standards that seems either

a) impressive

b) incredible

(or perhaps c - a reminder of the massive influence money has in politics)

Anyone think that's enough to scare Shaheen from jumping in?  Even with DSCC assistance that is one heck of a head start (plus isn't the DSCC "supposed" to not endorse a candidate in the primary - although a bet a few candidates from last year, especially in VA would disagree)

By the time Shaheen gets around to making her decision in the fall Katrina could have more than 1.5 million if she continues this pace and Marchand could be closing in on half a million. 

I guess my question is, why would Shaheen, who has spent a good long time building up the Democrat party in NH, wait to make a decision that would have potentially disastrous effect on the party? (It is almost Liebermanesque if one thinks about it in the sense of a person putting themselves above the party)  I would think that Ms. Shaheen enjoys seeing her name in the paper, but in the end will not run because, quite frankly, she has the best job in American politics if you like policy and don't want the hassle of being a public figure. 

Any thoughts?

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by: HoldenDC @ Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 20:54:19 PM CDT

You're right (0.00 / 0)

I can't think of any way that this could benefit the NH Democrat(sp?) party. 

When it comes down to it, the only people who stand to gain from this indecisiveness are the Shaheens.  Meanwhile, they're potentially wasting the hard efforts and all the fundraising that our declared primary contenders have been doing.

Liebermanesque is a pretty strong word, but I'll agree that to any observer it looks liek Shaheen is essentially putting herself above the party in holding out like this.  As far as her having the best job in American politics, she's definitely got a lot to think about but it's not fair to the party for her to make it at her convenience, ie: around the time this coming school year begins.

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

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by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 01:39:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm a long term observer (0.00 / 0)

As well as a long time participant.  First, Jeanne Shaheen has never put herself above the party.  One of the major reasons the Democratic Party is in good shape today, and is successful, is Jeanne Shaheen.  In some states, an incumbent office holder only concerns him or herself with re-election. Not Jeanne Shaheen; she was responsible for building the NH Democratic Party into a strong organization, with a trained competent staff, a strong financial base and a voter file that was as good, and eventually better than, the Republican Party list. If it wasn't for the structure she built, and the money she helped us raise after she lost in 2002, when we were broke and devastated, we wouldn't have bounced back for the 2004 election. Second, this is not "late"; it is early.  In the 2006 first congressional race, I remember meeting with two of the eventual candidates in the early fall of 2005 about whether they were going to run.  In April, 2004, I expected we would be having a gubernatorial primary between former Phil McLaughlin and then Democratic House leader Peter Burling.  When the filing period ended, we ended up with a primary between John Lynch and Paul McEarchern. It is because Governor Shaheen is the classy, gracious person she is, who does have the best interests of New Hampshire at heart, that she will make her mind up early, rather than keep the other candidates guessing until after the presidential primary.
By the way, Representative - good catch. It is the NH DEMOCRATIC Party, as any good Democrat knows. Call me suspicious, but does it strike anyone else as odd that a first time poster attacks a potential Democratic candidate who is decisively defeating John Sununu in the polls, a poster who doesn't call our party by its real name, and uses the red flag in front of a bull term, "Libermanesque" to stir the pot?  Something tells me that this person does  not have the best interest of the NH Democratic Party at heart; if s/he did, I think they would be talking about the positives of the candidate s/he thinks is best, and not trying to cause trouble!

Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 

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by: Kathy Sullivan @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 07:26:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Trouble ? (0.00 / 0)

Having an opinion different from yours on a blog is 'causing trouble' ? I think it is free expression.

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:19:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Trouble ? (0.00 / 0)

Having an opinion different from yours on a blog is 'causing trouble' ? I think it is free expression.

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:20:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm a newcomer (0.00 / 0)

and in the year since I've joined the Democratic party, no one has ever told me any of Jeanne Shaheen's history, as you just did.  Suffice it to say, I'm largely ignorant of the debt that the NH Democratic Party owes to the Shaheens.  I think that might be the true divide between older Democrats who have been in the party for a long time, and the new influx of people in my generation.  We really don't care about the patronage system.  And we'll listen to stories about things that we were too young to remember, but when it comes down to it if there's nothing I can see for myself then it's not going to have a impact on my feelings.

The judgments I make are based purely on what I have seen and learned in this short time, and what I have in front of me to choose from at this moment.

(I've got to make a stylistic comment, Kathy.  It'll be much more easier to read your posts if you double space between paragraphs/points)

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

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by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 12:57:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Okay! (0.00 / 0)

I'll double space from now on.

Question: I don't understand by your comment about the patronage system?  Doesn't "patronage system" means rewarding political allies with government jobs?  I said that Governor Shaheen helped build a strong party organization.  What does that have to do with a patronage system?


Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 

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by: Kathy Sullivan @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 13:13:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe I used the wrong word (0.00 / 0)

The idea I was trying to describe goes something like: "Jeanne Shaheen built the Democratic Party and put in her time, therefore we owe it to her to make her our candidate for Senate"

I guess my perspective is that "Democrats" are the people of New Hampshire who vote in the primary, not the people who have been heavily involved with the state party for a long time.

That's why we have primaries and don't let folks in positions such as the one you formerly occupied hand-pick our candidates in the back room.

In this case, Jeanne Shaheen realistically would clear the field if she enters the race.  I'd personally prefer to see an open primary, but our candidates can make their own decisions about what they want to do.

I respect those who have indicated they will not run if Shaheen decides to step in.  My issue is that I don't want us to not have a Senate race for the next 3 months, while the rest of us wait on Jeanne to decide.

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

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by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 13:33:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Okay again (4.00 / 1)

Thank you for clarifying, that was helpful.

I don't believe that because Gov. Shaheen built up the party, that she should be the nominee. I was responding to the person who said she was almost Liebermanesque in putting herself over the party, which was a nasty comment, because of all the hard work that Gov. Shaheen put in over the years to help the party.  Which is why I question the intent of that person [aside to Jon Bresler - questioning intent is not trying to squash free expression; it would be naive to think that there aren't people who use blogs to plant seeds of discord for purposes that aren't in the  interest of electing Democrats]. Calling someone Liebermanesque is, in my opinion, fighting words, like saying something about someone's mother.

Governor Shaheen should be the nominee because of her experience, her leadership, her ability and her record on issues like civil rights, womens rights and the environment.  She should be the nominee because our best and strongest candidate should take on Sununu. She should be the nominee because I think she deserves the chance to take him on in a fair fight - no cheating. 


Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 

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by: Kathy Sullivan @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 13:49:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

granted (4.00 / 1)

"just because you are paranoid doesn't mean there isn't somebody out to get you..."

The seeds of discord I seek to sow are with the established order. The Court just equated my right to free speech,with the rights of GM, Mitsubishi, Apple or any other multi-billion dollar corporation. The Republicans bought the courts and we will pay for a generation if we don't follow up '06 with smashing victories in '08. It could easily go back to the way it was just 8 months ago. This is an especially important time to be resolute and progressive.

At the Federal level, assuming a Democrat is the next President, it will be miserable at first following and cleaning up the mess of things that Bushism has made. I seek the most committed, hardest working candidate we can field. That person will inspire my respect, but not expect it. They will  take strong stands, to help the people of this nation re-constitute a severely damaged democracy. With a strong moderate to progressive outlook Steve Marchand is that guy. With a background in balancing budgets through his work for the Concord Coalition where he was the Northeast Regional Director of the nonpartisan, grassroots organization, he advocated for fiscal responsibility while ensuring that Social Security, Medicare, and the American economy are secure for all generations. He oversaw all of New England, as well as the State of New York. His understanding of elder life issues and advising AARP bespeaks his strengths on core issues facing our rapidly aging country. Hailing from the West Side of Manchester, and finding a wonderful acceptance from Liberals Moderates and Independents on the Seacoast...well as a fresh face he could easily mount a credible winning campaign and beat John Sununu. It could happen.

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 14:50:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sexist (0.00 / 0)

If you said something bad about my father I'd be just as pissed.

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 07:16:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, Democrats and Independents vote and decide in the Prmiary.... (0.00 / 0)

And in the General, Independents decide.

And Independents love Jeanne Shaheen.  She  has built her reputation and earned our trust over many years.  I trust her inner character especially because she stayed a Democrat when most Democratically oriented people became Rinos to further their political careers and stature.  Not Jeanne Shaheen.  She was a Democrat when being a Democrat just wasn't cool.

And she made being a Democrat cool.  And most important, it's the experience that she got along the way to that success that you party desperately needs in 2008.  It's a skill set that only comes from experience.  And it matters.  It really matters.

What we know is she knows how to do this.  With everyone else it's a guess; Maybe, Maybe not.  I think we all can agree, Jeanne Shaheen knows how to do this: The whole campaign package.

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 13:58:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Why I don't take Republican advice on Democrats (0.00 / 0)

... that you party desperately needs in 2008

Sorry, we're not desperate this time around.  The country is in desperate need of a Democratic Senator, but we are in no short supply of great people to fill that role.

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

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by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 14:38:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Jeanne Shaheen gets along great with Independents. (0.00 / 0)

But if your point is that not all Democrats do, you've proved your point, but you sure didn't have to prove it to me.

Maybe you haven't counted to 50.0001% yet.  But you do DESPERATELY need us to get there, especially in a Presidential year, and especially in the General.  Try counting.

Some of the most sophomoric forecasting I've seen is the extrapolation of 2006 Independent voting patterns into 2008 predictions, as well as looking at 2007 polling of Independents' current opinions and making assumptions about 2008 from that.  That is pure folly, complete and pure folly.

Jeanne Shaheen not only has the experience to communicate very well to us.  But she also has the experience to never - EVER - take us for granted.  She's earned our good will. She makes us feel like a part of, not outsiders, and Independents are never treated like the enemy by Jeanne Shaheen.  Never!

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 15:27:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In response... (0.00 / 0)

First, I am a proud democrat.  Believe what you want, but it was just a typo from posting past my bedtime.  And quite frankly, I am surprised you were so quick to reach for the ad hominem attack against my credibility. 

Regardless of your perceived paranoia of Republican boogeymen attempting to infiltrate this website against your candidate, I agree with you that in the abstract a decision in Fall of 07 for a race a year or more away is early.  However this race isn't being run in the abstract.  The purpose of a primary system is for the party to choose the best candidate - and right now we have three great candidates who are committed to running for the privilege of giving NH voters a choice between true representation and the pathetic croynism that currently "represents them" in Washington.  Whether or not Ms. Shaheen likes it, this race started awhile ago, and by keeping hope alive that she will join the fray, she is effectively neutering the existing candidates from achieving any type of momentum or significant base of support.  Which, given all you have said about her commitment to the DEMOCRATIC party of NH, seems to be counterintuitive to someone with those closely held beliefs. 

Based on your description of her, as well as the fact that it looks like she will clear the field if she decides to enter, the only possible logical conclusion of her decision to wait to the fall is:
a) she's in and is just waiting till after labor day to announce because people are not paying attention now.
b) She truly hasn't made up her mind but wants to take her time (despite knowing that it comes at the expense of others in the party) which I consider to be selfish and hence my use of the term Liebermanesque (the penultimate example of self serving behavior over the expense of the party). 

Perhaps thou doth protest too much over the use of this analogy since as part of the Governor's inner circle you are privy to her strategy.  Or maybe you are just protecting an old friend.  Eitherway, I stand by my original post (except of course for the use of democrat when we all know we are part of the Democratic party).

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by: HoldenDC @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 20:09:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

In 2002 Shaheen (0.00 / 0)

raised $5.8 million (PDF). $1.5M wouldn't scare her off.

And it's the "Democratic Party."

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by: elwood @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 05:56:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Katrina is a really nice person... (0.00 / 0)

But lets face it.  Her Dad is an influential Congressman who is now in the Party in power.  She'll raise plenty of money.  No doubt about that.  But that money isn't coming in because people think she can win.  It's coming in because of the influence people need from her Dad.

Katrina just won't sell very easy here.  I don't know why, exactly.  There is just something in her persona, and particularly her camera persona, where the more money she raises, and the more ads she can afford to run, the worse she will do.  I'm a photographer.  I don't know why that is.  I can't really put my finger on it exactly, it's just she fails the screen test.  She's an attractive lady, too.  It's not that.  But there is just something there that on camera just doesn't sell, something that makes her a very hard sell.  It's not her fault.  And I don't even know how to advise her to fix it.  She's just not candidate material for NH.

It's the strangest thing.  When you meet her you meet this really nice lady.  She's so warm and friendly.  But it's a very different person than the person I meet in her ads.

By contrast, when you meet Jeanne Shaheen you meet the same person you meet in her ads.  She's warm and inviting and she makes you smile whether it's in person or on TV.  In a tight race - and this is going to be a very tight, competitive, race - that means a lot.

Writing this post makes me sick. I'm very embarrassed writing it because it is so wrong from an intellectual, how it should be, basis.  It's a political reality that shouldn't be.  But it's a political reality that just is.

She doesn't pass the screen test. Katrina needs to be able to put her wonderful personality on film.  I have just never seen her on film where she's done that successfully.

Maybe someone can show her how to fix that.  I can see the problem but I'm not smart enough to figure out how to fix it. That's her challenge.  Her challenge isn't raising money.  She needs to put her real personality on film.  She just hasn't been able to succeed in doing that from my view.

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 07:15:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

KS camera persona (4.00 / 1)

At the Democracy for America conference, KSwett had a huge campaign sign that was a picture of her in front of a wall of books. I didn't know who she was (I'm from VT and don't have a TV) but when I saw it I really thought it was an ad for a trial lawyer, you know, one of those that says "We don't get paid unless we don't lose, or we hate to not get paid." Something about it screamed "sleazy opportunist". I can't even begin to explain why, like I said I did not know who it was and I had absolutely no pre-conceived opinion of her.

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by: GreenVTster @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:30:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Okay (4.00 / 1)

Jim Webb didn't decide to run for the Senate in 2006 until 2006 - the election year.

For the 2002 election cycle, Gov Shaheen announced she was forming an exploratory committee for the US Senate in late August of 2001.

She'll make her decision for 2008 in the fall of 2007. That is not a late time to make a decision like this.

The fact that Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey wanted to announce earlier is their choice. Their choice made knowing that Gov. Shaheen had said she hadn't decided to run or not. Because one candidate decides to run at a certain point does not control when another does. Each candidate makes a decision on what is best for each's candidacy.

As for what Bill Shaheen has said, his initial quotation was that she would decide in September. He subsequently was quoted saying she would decide in the fall. My guess is he was told that he should not have said September. As was discussed on a different diary, Sam Youngman's Hill story did not quote Bill Shaheen and a fair reading of his article was that Youngman was incorrectly recalling what Bill Shaheen had said in some other reporter's story. The fact another site picks up Youngman's article doesn't make his article correct nor does the fact that Dean decided to do a second diary on this, based simply on the fact that a second site picked up Youngman's article.

And, Rep. Edwards, as for Gov. Shaheen's selfishness, she could wait until next spring to decide and would still be able to raise enough money to run a successful campaign.

D
A 

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by: Moxie @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 06:41:14 AM CDT

Yes. And she should wait till spring... (0.00 / 0)

That's the smart tactical thing to do that will maximize her chances in the general.

But there is a certain irony in the third string candidates claiming that she is not the best candidate, while they simultaneously complain that they don't have as good a chance if she doesn't handicap herself by announcing early.

The filing deadline is in the spring.  Those are the rules to compete.  The candidates running are not running on her behalf.  They are trying to be competitors.  She should plan her time to maximize her chances.  That's what's best to defeat Sununu, and that's what's best for the Democratic party.

If her potential competitors don't want her to do what's best to beat Sununu, and do what's best for her Party, they should say so, and admit that their personal political position is more important to them than Jeanne Shaheen running the most effective race she can.

Isn't that what they are really saying?  Jeanne Shaheen is the most competitive candidate so she should handicap herself, her party, and her chances against Sununu to help their personal, political, positions and careers?  I don't know how to interpret it any other way.

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 07:29:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Couldn't disagree more. (0.00 / 0)

By waiting until spring, another 500-1000 US soldiers will have died in Sununu's war.

I not going to wait that long for a position on Iraq.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:08:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

But Dean, it's only what happens on general election day that influences that... (0.00 / 0)

Election day could bring some gains for Democrats.  But Democrats could give up ground, too.  Of course we'll have to agree to disagree about this, Dean.  But I consider Porter's seat far more vulnerable than Sununu's.

That Democrats control Congress is something that Republicans can use to make 2008 a very different environment than 2006.  Democrats are not the challengers any more.

Your plan A should be fun for you to plan gains in 2008.  But you better have a plan B that merely builds defenses against erosion.

Porter, in particular, needs Shaheen and Lynch on the ballot.  That is part of any type of Plan B's erosion control from my view.

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:47:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Again, I respectfully and strenuously disagree. (4.00 / 1)

How those in office and those running for office respond to the Iraq war right now influences how the war is conducted or ended right now.

I'm not interested in using the Iraq war to get Democrats elected in 2008.  I'm interested in using Democrats to end the Iraq war in 2007.

And I'm not alone.  A clear majority nationwide and in-state want this war to end, and I expect that both Hodes and Shea-Porter will be rewarded on election day for following the will of their constituents rather than most congressional  Democrats on the war funding vote.

Shaheen, through her past achievements, has earned the biggest in-state bullhorn to use against Sununu's enabling of this war.  As director of the IOP she can't use that bullhorn, but as candidate she can.  She and other candidates in other Republican-vulnerable states can pressure and scare the incumbents into abandoning Bush and reaching that 61 vote threshold needed in the senate to stop this nightmare.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:09:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

As a candidate her only job is to win... (0.00 / 0)

That is the only result that will have a real effect.

Objectives that run counter to that don't scare anybody.  They just create a warm and fuzzy feeling during a campaign that dissipates very rapidly whenever election day doesn't meet it's expectations.

The consequences of elections occur based upon the actual election results, not the soap boxes people stand on during a campaign.

Frankly, that is one of the big differences between experienced candidates and less experienced ones.  Experienced candidates like Governor Shaheen keep their eye on their campaign plan and the prize.  Less experienced ones are easily taken off course by the warm and fuzzy soap box opportunities that occur during all campaign that don't produce when the rubber meets the road, and often diminish the propensity for success.

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by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:46:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It is the issues (0.00 / 0)

that need airing to keep Sununu down. Where does Gov. Shaheen stand on Stem Cells, Iraq, Torture, Patriot Act, Impeachment, Carbon Neutrality, etc.? Are her policies exactly in line with her husband's candidate, or doesn't that matter ? Is there a Cabinet Post she would forego to assuage the loss in 2002 ? Not havng won an election since 2000 is she game tough ? I assume since she played rover at Shippansburg State that she still has the fight in her. Though making the big bucks in a cushy and fun job at Harvard would be tough to walk away from. Can she sit back and expect those of us who are already engaged in trying for 61 Senators and a President to sit back with her while she arranges her career choices...and if she loses against Sununu again, as improbable as that may seem, is she toast ? Musing for a Monday.

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:14:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

OK, Jon (0.00 / 0)

Let's take those one-by-one:

* It is probably safe to say that Jeanne is pro-stem cell research, against Bush's blundering on Iraq and his abuse of civil liberties, anti-impeachment (like other sane Democrats who realize that we have nothing to gain from President Cheney), and an emphatic supporter of strong environmental protection.  On the latter, her gubernatorial administration was exemplary.

* I don't view her candidacy through the prism of the presidential primary.  Gov. Shaheen is a strong, determined, principled, progressive leader in her own right.

* Whether you like or dislike Jeanne, she is definitely "game tough".  If you don't believe me, just ask Gordon Humphrey. . . .

* She works for a nonprofit educational institution.  No doubt she's fairly compensated, but I'm guessing that money is not a huge motivating factor for her right now.

* "Can she sit back and expect those of us who are already engaged in trying for 61 Senators and a President to sit back with her while she arranges her career choices?"  Jon, that's unfair.  Jeanne Shaheen has busted her tail for over 30 years to build the NH Democratic Party.  While I'd like her to make her decision sooner rather than later, I don't think that she's doing damage to the party by waiting til September (15 months before the election) before making up her mind.  If she runs, no doubt she will use every ounce of her effort and wisdom, and she wants to get this decision right.

We may support different candidates thus far -- you're for Steve, I'm for Katrina -- but we should both agree that Jeanne deserves a little more respect than your "musing" provides.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 08:39:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow (1.33 / 3)

Game tough? You're joking right? Compared to whom? She's run statewide 4 times, two of them very tough, very close races.

I can't believe how personal your attack is Jon. Rover. Her husband. Her cushy job. A cabinet post to assuage her 2002 loss. What in God's name is wrong with you?

I'm having a great deal of difficulty with how negative supporters of Steve Marchand are.

Do you think that builds support for him? I don't. Are you forgetting the possibility that Gov. Shaheen won't run? Do you think the nasty, negative posts you and a few other Marchand supporters are making will attract Shaheen supporters to Marchand if Gov. Shaheen doesn't run? I don't. And if she doesn't run, there will be a primary with a couple of other attractive choices besides Steve. And if she doesn't run, look for another strong candidate to get in the race.

I sure hope Steve is not encouraging his supporters to make these sorts of attacks on Gov. Shaheen.

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:16:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You forgot Jimmy Carter, Gary Heart... (0.00 / 0)

And she almost got Paul McEachern elected to the Governor's job during the Reagan years, for heaven's sake. Does anyone really believe that Governor Lynch would be in office without her?

She's the only one who has taken paper plans and succeeded with them when the rubber met the road.  And she's done it over and over and over for 31 years....

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 09:27:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tell me how you really feel... (4.00 / 2)

Ah the debate is joined, and you civilly attempted to answer me. If my tone was sarcastic, well I guess that's the way I write.I do need to work on that.

To clear the air;

First I speak for myself. Steve Marchand and his campaign do not influence what I say, obviously. Judy I know you have had a career in politics and Jeannie is very important to you as a friend and mentor. You obviously feel very protective of her. I don't have the same perspective that you do, and represent my own thoughts.
That simple. But having said that you know I ran phone banks for her ABC targeted aid plan in '97, did mounds of fundraising calls over the years, made anti-Sununu TV commercials for her and would have walked through the proverbial fire. I was the guy Liz asked to call the Fernald folks for money after he lost the Primary against her. Big fun, but hey I did it, and did it well.
Whatever was asked I did. I never wavered, even if I disagreed on policy. I was a loyal friend, though never on the payroll. Even as my business was closing I gave $500. to her Senate campaign. Just so folks know.

Having worked for everyone with a D next to their name for the length of time I've lived here, and having been awarded the party's Volunteer award for my work, I think I've earned the right to an opinion, unfettered by the judgement of some board of standards.

Second  I think if a candidate is interested in running for office in the most politically active place in the universe it is fair to ask where they stand.

Third  Though I believe that Jeannie is a formidable candidate, and perhaps the best we can put forward, until she joins the fray it is a mental excersize that leaves something to be desired. I am concerned as to whether her seeming uncertainty is based on anything we know about from the past, or is about things we are not supposed to know about currently.

In either case, we are in the post Blue Wave world of You Tube and Blogs and Myspace, and Facebook. 2000 seems a lifetime past.There are no (few?)secrets.One of the reasons I love the blogs is that there is no Party or Candidate filter. We should not let entrenched Party loyalists, trolls, ultraliberals, whomever, quash debate. It is best for supporters of all candidates declared or not, to be here discussing the issues. If they want to work through surrogates fine. The "What in God's name is wrong with you" stuff is unecessary. What is Right with me is that I no longer assume that I need to be told how to think or what to say by you or anyone else. In fact I was referring to a person in the public eye, who wants to represent me in Congress, and thought these issues germaine, you did not. Okay,that's fine, but I don't remember personally attacking you or anyone, other than trying to find the heart of the questions I have about the mystery of "Does she or doesn't she ?" (Tip o' the hat to Clairol and Bill Tierney ~for 20 points anyone care to posit the rejoinder ?)

Next time, there may be no next time.

---

by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 12:28:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You have every right (0.00 / 1)

to continue to make personal negative attacks on Gov. Shaheen. But it doesn't help Steve Marchand one bit.

I haven't seen supporters of Jay Buckey or Katrina Swett running around attacking Jeanne Shaheen. 

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 14:47:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please (4.00 / 2)

keep this as a discussion between you and Jon and whomever (me, now, I guess). It seems you're trying to spin it as though Steve Marchand were organizing an attack on Governor Shaheen. It isn't fair to do this.

Just because someone questions a political figure, and that person supports another figure, doesn't mean that the political figure in question even knows about it, much less is co-ordinating it. One cannot make that assumption and I wish you hadn't.

The grassroots in my little neck of the woods would not be thrilled with a non-primary and Shaheen as the nominee. This is not meant as a criticism of Governor Shaheen, but a reminder that some people are unhappy with some things she did  or didn't do.

Her plusses may outweigh her minuses. Nobody's perfect. But she'll have some work to do to convince people here in the hinterlands to be excited about her candidacy. (Which now is phantom in nature, and increasingly getting on my nerves.)

---

by: Jennifer Daler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 16:10:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks (0.00 / 0)

Much better in tone.

Next time, there may be no next time.

---

by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 17:41:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please (0.00 / 0)

There is a reasonable chance she won't run. And if she doesn't, I am not going to be attracted to a candidate whose supporters make personal attacks on Gov. Shaheen.  The negative comments made by Marchand supporters, not just Jon, do not serve Steve well. That's my point, not that Steve is personally directing the attacks.

As I posted earlier, Jon and you have every right to attack her all you want. And I have every right to factor that in to my decision making on whom to support if Gov. Shaheen doesn't run.

 

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 18:47:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Argumentum ad nauseam, or "proof by assertion" (4.00 / 1)

is another form of attack.

I'll not take the bait.

birch, finch, beech

---

by: Dean Barker @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 19:35:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Huh? (0.00 / 0)

What is the factual contradiction in what I said? What was false?

It is fact that Marchand supporters have been attacking Gov. Shaheen on this site and on other websites and today one made it pretty darn personal.

If Gov. Shaheen does not run, it appears there will be at least three Democratic candidates to choose from in the primary. That's the current state of the race.

Gov. Shaheen may not run. I believe that is a correct statement.

I don't think it's helpful to Steve Marchand for his supporters to attack her and alienate her supporters, given that if she does not run, Steve will want them to support him rather than Buckey or Swett. That is my opinion, based on my reaction and the reaction of other Shaheen supporters with whom I have spoken. 

I am truly perplexed by Dean's post. I didn't initiate a discussion on what I consider to be the poor judgment of some of Steve Marchand's supporters. I responded to their attacks on Gov. Shaheen. Each of my posts is a response.


I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 21:57:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wait a second (0.00 / 0)

More people have commented on Shaheen getting into the race, who aren't Marchand supporters.  Your assuming that they are makes absolutely no sense and makes it seem as if Marchand is Shaheen's de facto enemy.

If you're talking about a specific person, I'd like you to show me a negative personal attack that I've made. 

Since that's obviously not the case, you're taking something that Holden said and using it to smear everyone else, regardless of whether s/he has anything to do with Marchand.

I clearly did not agree with their use of the "Liebermanesque" phrasing, while agreeing on a few other points they raised.

People posting in this thread in general have their own ideas. For you to try and associate a rogue comment with Steve Marchand is illogical and an ad hominem attack.
Tell me where it's written that if I agree with part of what someone says that I'm responsible for anything that they type, and further that whoever I publicly support is now responsible as well.

It's not written anywhere, except as "guilt by association" a.k.a. argumentum ad hominem.

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

---

by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 22:34:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please read Jon Bresler's comments (0.00 / 0)

Some of Jon Bresler's comments today were quite personal, e.g. her cushy job, etc.

And, Representative, you posted today - twice I think - that she is putting herself over the interests of the party.

Bresler also insinuated there is something in her past that she needs to hide. Sort of like the "skeletons in the closet" comment you made a couple of weeks ago.

You are both Marchand supporters.

Jay Buckey and Katrina Swett are both credible candidates. And, there is a rumor that a very credible candidate will get in if Gov. Shaheen does not.

I spoke to Steve Marchand today. I know he doesn't condone the attacks his supporters are making. But why would I want to get involved in a campaign where I would be associating with people who were attacking Gov. Shaheen, when I have other good choices?

In multi-candidate primaries, attacks from one camp against one of the other candidates rarely benefit the attacking camp.

I'm sure you and Jon think you are being helpful to Steve Marchand by attacking Gov. Shaheen. Keep on doing it if you think it's helpful.

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 23:29:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No I'll read mine, thank you (0.00 / 0)

I'll agree that to any observer it looks like Shaheen is essentially putting herself above the party in holding out like this

Where are the attacks, Judy?  They certainly aren't coming from me. 

If something I've said was offensive or could be construed as an attack then I apologize.  I would be very excited to have Jeanne Shaheen running for Senate, I should make that clear.  I obviously have no personal history with anyone and all I have to go with right now is what I see.  And what I see is a bunch of smaller candidates trying their hardest to bring NH forward right now, and they're not able to make an impact because we're in a state of flux until Jeanne makes up her mind.  I think it's unfair. 

Now is that an attack?  Because that's all I've been trying to get across all day.

We police how people receive our words, but I think we'll both have an easier time discussing this if we can sort this out.  If you continue using ad hominem arguments then you will only be causing a huge stink, not winning any people over - people will believe that your outrage is feigned.

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

---

by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 23:59:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We *can't* police... typo, n/t (0.00 / 0)

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

---

by: Andy Edwards @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 00:02:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Geesh (0.00 / 0)

She's going to decide over a year before the actual election.

If she waited until next June or something like that, I'd think that was unfair to the other candidates, too, but I really don't see why it's unfair for her to make her decision a whole year before the election.

It's not like she said this past January that she was not running, and in reliance on that, other candidates got in.

Each of the candidates made a calculated decision that it was in their interest to start their campaigns when they started them, knowing that Gov. Shaheen might decide to run.

If she doesn't run, I don't think anyone's chances of winning will be hurt by her not deciding not to run. The major constraint on their fundraising between now and September is the fact there is a primary. And until the Presidential primary is over, the media is not going to pay a lot of attention to the senate race.

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 00:51:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

True (0.00 / 0)

Judy, you write, "It's not like she said this past January that she was not running, and in reliance on that, other candidates got in..."

She said nothing, hence the title of the Diary.

Regarding the Oracle at Delphi another legend held that Apollo walked to Delphi from the north and stopped at Tempe, a city in Thessaly to pick laurel, a plant sacred to him (generally known in English as the bay tree). In commemoration of this legend, the winners at the Pythian Games received a wreath of laurel (bay leaves) picked in Tempe.

Something to rest on this holiday ?

Next time, there may be no next time.

---

by: Jon Bresler @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 09:06:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What's wrong with attacks? (0.00 / 0)

I don't find any problem with attacks.  That's politics.  And attacks go both ways. Another form of attack is to target a candidate, however insignificant that candidate may be, to really introduce that candidate and cut through their crafted, less than accurate image to voters.  And it's great when that impression can be made a lasting impression on voters.

These Fernald people have a history, a pattern.  That pattern isn't going to be tolerated this time around.  These people are going to get what they have given, and I for one will be trigger happy to implement that.  I too am merely an unconnected, free-agent, Independent Shaheen supporter who will be completely immune to even Judy's calls to stop once I start.

But as we all read, and some of us write these issues of political war in a primary I only have one question, and I think it's for Elwood.  After reading this crap, do you really still believe that Primaries are a good thing, and helpful to your general election goals?

If she runs, Shaheen is going to win the primary.  You just have to ask yourselves.  Do you want to send her into the General limping, or charging full speed ahead.  That is really the only choice.

But make no mistake about it.  In the unlikely event that Marchand is the candidate sent into the general, he'll be limping.  And he'll be under very heavy attack from people who would have been for Shaheen.  Marchand is unacceptable under any circumstances.

And that's just politics.

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 06:49:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

"The Pattern" (0.00 / 0)

Per your description, the real pattern:  Making the perfect the enemy of the good, and beating down Democrats who don't pass prescribed litmus tests. . . . Shaheen is bad because she didn't throw herself on the sword of a broad-based tax, and she refuses to make a decision on the Senate race until **15 months** before Election Day.  Hillary didn't oppose the war strongly enough in 2004.  Katrina is evil because she used to support Joe Lieberman before he started romancing Republicans and threatening bombing runs over Tehran.  Her husband was "FOR SALE" because he refused to self-limit his campaign donations like John and Mary Rauh (even though he had a perfect voting record on the issue).  Bit in the midst of this intra-party nit-picking, the real issue is forgotten:

WHO CAN DEFEAT REPUBLICANS AND END THEIR ASSAULT ON OUR SECURITY, OUR FREEDOMS, AND OUR MORALS?

We deserve better.  Let's follow Dean's lead and nail Sununu's ass to the wall.  Our party doesn't need another circular firing squad.  We've had enough of 'em.

---

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 07:55:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Whoa (0.00 / 0)

I don't think it should be held against Steve Marchand that he worked for Fernald in 2002. He began that campaign working for Jim Normand, and only when Normand dropped out did he go to work for Fernald. Normand was his first choice, so I take that to mean his own views were more in line with Normand's views. He needed a job.

Based on his work for the Concord Coalition, I think you'd like his fiscal views.


I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

---

by: Judy Reardon @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 08:01:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If his Concord Coalition views are genuine that's true.... (0.00 / 0)

Coming from you I'll take that as credible.  Let's hope there is no resemblance to the Fernald pattern.  I'm suspicious, but less suspicious because of your post.  We'll see.

There's nothing wrong with a guy needing a job.  Thanks.  I'm glad you posted that....

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 08:32:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I didn't realize we were supposed to, (0.00 / 0)

but I'll have to get right on that . . .

Where do we go from here?

---

by: Gavin @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 20:12:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"selfish"? (0.00 / 0)

that's a word I never used, but if I had - your claim about her ability to raise money on short notice would be completely irrelevant.


It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

---

by: Andy Edwards @ Mon Jul 02, 2007 at 12:33:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There's More up for Grabs. (0.00 / 0)

Most of what I have read in this thread up to this moment is "self" centered.  I mean "self" as a description, not as a criticism.  Yes, Blue Hampshire should be focused on New Hamphire, but, we are Democrats and we need to remember that there is a national party, there is a national crisis, and, there are national opportunities.

"We" seem to have lost sight of the fact that Jeanne Shaheen has national cred -- she was mooted for Vice President.  If these were the olden days of the politics of the smoke filled room, I would expect that the national backroom would now be mooting her for the cabinet, in particular, Secretary of Education, not for a New Hampshire Senate seat.

The difficulty is, you don't run for the cabinet, at least, not directly.  Whether the Shaheens would have the opportunity and the capital to "deliver" for the winning national candidate at the critical time (think Sununu the elder delivering for  Bush the elder -- he "won" chief of staff), is a highly speculative position to take, especially for Jeanne herself.  That would be an all or nothing bet.

On the other hand, I agree that Sununu is in the electorates' cross-hairs.  He's a goner, so long "we" don't run a stiff against him. 

At the end of the day, this is the conundrum NH Democrats face:  Do "we" go for the sure thing and send Shaheen to the Senate, or, do "we" go all-in and boost her to the next president's cabinet and at the same time send another, perhaps younger, Democrat to the Senate for more terms than Gregg has served?

I don't know what Jeanne wants, but, I want it all.

---

by: Taciturnus @ Wed Jul 04, 2007 at 15:24:06 PM CDT

well (0.00 / 0)

I'm no poker player but when you're on a roll is not the time to go for the sure thing.

Next time, there may be no next time.

---

by: Jon Bresler @ Wed Jul 04, 2007 at 17:32:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What??? (4.00 / 1)

If you people consider ANY candidate a sure thing against Sununu, you're smoking dope.  The Sununu family is 7-0 in general elections during the past quarter-century, and John E. will have a prodigious finanical advantage.  Like last time, they will pull out all the stops -- and will run a campaign of dirty personal attacks and distortions.  (They do it well.  It's their stock-in-trade.)

Are we "on a roll"?  Sure.  But NH voters are fickle.  The Republicans were "on a roll" in 1994, but then we elected Jeanne two years later.  Took back the Senate in '98, but then came the disaster of '02.  Charlie Bass won re-election by 20+ points in '04, but that "roll" didn't last either.

If you think Steve Marchand is a better candidate than Jeanne Shaheen, that's your call.  (It ain't mine.)  But our priority needs to be on picking the candidate with the best chance of defeating John E. Sununu, or we won't win a damn thing in November 2008.

---

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 06:28:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sir (0.00 / 0)

"You people" ? Please define your terms.
That smacks of 'some people'...a generality, and guilt by association... we don't wear a specific label.
Not everyone here thinks the same. Some don't believe that the Democratic Party represents them, though the majority seem to. Just saying we can disagree without acting stuffy and looking down our nosey...I suppose you only vote for those who drink chardonnay.

Next time, there may be no next time.

---

by: Jon Bresler @ Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 06:41:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

??? (4.00 / 1)

You people, specifically referring to (a) you, and (b) the commenter to whom you were responding.  This group has expressed the view that Sununu is toast, and that any Democrat can defeat him.  I vehemently disagree.

Didn't quite get the chardonnay part, but I hope I answered your question.

---

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 07:15:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

If you people consider ANY candidate a sure thing against Sununu, you're smoking dope. (0.00 / 0)

I agree it's not a sure thing in any election, but the smoking dope comment is meaningless, and detracts from your point. Nobody gave Hodes or Shea-Porter a chance either. Were they wrong ? Un-hunh.

Next time, there may be no next time.

---

by: Jon Bresler @ Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 09:38:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Absolutely, it's not a sure thing... (0.00 / 0)

...and keeping any Sununu in the electorate's crosshairs will be hard work.

The strategic opportunity, as I see it, applies to Katrina, for example, not just to Marchand.  I want to see one NH Dem in the Senate and another NH Dem in the cabinet.  That would advance the state party, make NH a deeper shade of blue.

Whether the electorate has been/will be reactionary to the Bush fiasco or any sitting Congress, or, whether the Shea Porter vicitory is the first glimpse of a new NH dynamic -- well, those are separate issues. 

---

by: Taciturnus @ Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 12:29:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"On a roll" is a trend. (0.00 / 0)

There is no trend.  Right now it graphs like an aberration.

"Going for it all" may be just holding the gains of the aberration.  Anyone other than Shaheen and I'm pretty sure Porter is toast, even if it's just because Shaheen chooses not to run.

I prefer "you've got to know when to hold 'em, and when to fold 'em".

Anyone who can't leave the table when they are up probably ought to seek out gambler's anonomous.  Gambling addicts usually stay at the table until everything is gone....

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Thu Jul 05, 2007 at 10:53:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sound's like you're losing this hand (0.00 / 0)

Anyone who can't leave the table when they are up probably ought to seek out gambler's anonomous

You should be encouraging us to stay at the table, so you can win some of your money back.  Unless of course, you know that's not going to happen and 2008 is ours (you know this is only the beginning).

It's time we steer by the stars, and not the lights of every passing ship

---

by: Andy Edwards @ Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 00:27:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You don't seem to be assessing the odds of playing with a full deck. :) (0.00 / 0)

Sorry.  Couldn't resist.

---

by: nhpoliticscom @ Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 10:03:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]