Could Ron Paul Win the NH Primary? What would that do?

There are two signs for Paul (0.00 / 0)

that I see every time I head out to Grafton.  NH does have a strong libertarian streak, I imagine that Paul will get a fairly warm reception here.

Looking at the polls from the last few months, the one conclusion I can draw is that things are very much in flux and the dance is far from done.  This republican primary is very unpredictable.

Where do we go from here?

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by: Gavin @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 18:47:39 PM CDT

I forgot Huckabee (0.00 / 0)

The favorite of potential Hodes challenger Clegg.

Plus, there's Fred Thompson. I saw him on TV tonight and realized who he looks like.

Don Rickles, in his later years.

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by: elwood @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 19:34:10 PM CDT

Don Rickles (0.00 / 0)

still kills

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 05:25:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The thought's crossed my mind before (0.00 / 0)

I've been fairly surprised by the vocal support Ron Paul's received, especially among young people. I was in the seacoast region about a week ago, and it seemed he had the other Republican candidates beat in having lawn signs up, too (however significant that is...). He's apparently "got" 60% of the Republican Facebook vote. I think he might be able to "pull a Pat Buchanan" between likely voter apathy on the Republican side and the enthusiasm of his base. I don't have any real speculation as to what that might mean as far the Presidential nomination, if he comes in first, second, or even third if the vote is close enough, especially in a year with no incumbent.

In the very unlikely event that he wins the nomination or even seats delegates, I imagine parallels would be drawn between the 1964 race with Goldwater and this one. Especially given Mitt Romney's in the race (his father ran for the Republican nomination in 1964), Hillary Clinton's in the race (and was a Goldwater volunteer in '64) and Paul maybe enjoys a similar level of ideological support and loyalty as Goldwater did (How would Ron Paul supporters act if/when seated at the 2008 Republican Convention?).

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 20:29:04 PM CDT

George Romney: 1968, not 64, no? (0.00 / 0)

His famous "brainwashed" episode was 1968.

1964 was, IIRC, mostly Rockefeller v. Goldwater, with some late "anybody but Goldwater attempts from folks like William Scranton.

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by: elwood @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 20:39:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe you're right... (4.00 / 2)

I think he ran in '68, "brainwashed", etc, but I'm not sure if it was for the first or second time.

I was just thinking of this Lyndon Johnson ad at the time (you have to wait for the second one), and it suggested to me that he ran alongside Rockefeller, Scranton, et al.

I was just going from memory, so I didn't really fact-check too deeply.

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 21:04:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That is an awesome ad (0.00 / 0)

Thanks. They don't make narrators like that anymore ... well they make 'em but they don't use 'em.

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by: JimC @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 08:50:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pssst... JimC (0.00 / 0)

Check your rating above... perhaps a mistake?

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 09:06:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes thanks Dean (4.00 / 1)

Sorry about that ... multitasking.

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by: JimC @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 09:27:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Anecdotal Evidence (4.00 / 1)

I've seen way more Ron Paul bumper stickers here in NH than any other Republican candidate.

Of course, I don't think I've seen more than 1 or 2 for any of the other GOP jackasses.

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by: Scoonie @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 20:44:14 PM CDT

Ditto that. (0.00 / 0)

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 21:04:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He could win (0.00 / 0)

... but it's hard to picture. He is definitely the candidate of antiwar Republicans, and he has a certain resonance with more "small government" GOPers than, say, Guiliani.

But it wouldn't really matter if he did win. He won't have enough money to compete in the subsequent large state primaries, so he'd fade pretty quickly unless he won NH decisively.

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by: JimC @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 20:45:33 PM CDT

Q2 (0.00 / 0)

he had more cash on hand than McCain at the end of the second quarter: he's not doing badly in fundraising.


Go 'Bama!

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by: alexwill @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 21:12:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I disagree (0.00 / 0)

Expectations are higher for McCain, but they're both doing poorly.

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by: JimC @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 21:19:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"gambler's swagger" (0.00 / 0)

The only prominent candidate doing terrible in fundraising is Mike Gravel. Mike Huckabee is doing surprisingly poor. But other than that all the candidates running have the money needed to run a presidential campaign. IMO, the really really high numbers are just for so-called "gambler's swagger" that allow the Clintons and Obamas and Romneys to set the standard and intimidate candidates with less (like Vilsack and Gilmore), and also to be treated as the leaders by the media.

Though I think Obama's number of donors is significant in the range of ground support, the high dollars is only for the media and a sense of having nothing to lose in going forward.

Go 'Bama!

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by: alexwill @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 07:20:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think there's some truth to that (0.00 / 0)

But there's a also a competitive bar, and I don't know where it is, but it's higher than $2 million. If you work on a campaign that is below that bar, not only do you have to work against the fear that your candidate will lose, you also have to work against the fear that you won't be paid. The only thing worse than lousy pay is no pay.

Alex, good to see you posting at BMG ... or maybe you've always been there and I'm the Jimmy Come Lately? Either way we have to keep it up, that thing is troll-ridden.

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by: JimC @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 09:50:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

he has a lot of support (4.00 / 1)

for being anti-war.

The better known he becomes, the more people will learn about him. I'm not sure that he'll stand up so well to scrutiny.

He's the only member of Congress to recieve a 100% rating from the John Birch Society.

NH Kucinich Campaign

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by: susanb @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 20:54:00 PM CDT

They're still around, eh? (4.00 / 1)

Oh, we're the John Birch Society, the John Birch Society
Here to save our country from a COMMUNISTIC PLOT!
Join the John Birch Society, help us fill the ranks
To get this movement started we need lots of tools and cranks

-- Chad Mitchell Trio, 1962??

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by: elwood @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 21:20:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

wow (0.00 / 0)

from deep in the vault he pulls a gem.

Next time, there may be no next time.

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by: Jon Bresler @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 22:07:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Really? (0.00 / 0)

How do Brownback and the rest rate? Do you have a link?

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by: JimC @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 08:31:24 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

yes I do (0.00 / 0)

http://votesmart.org...

Tancredo scores  77%

Brownback only scores 37%

NH Kucinich Campaign

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by: susanb @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 10:11:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks (0.00 / 0)

That's really striking; I couldn't even find anyone in the 80s.

Barney Frank 40, Brownback 37 ...

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by: JimC @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 10:47:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dean -- notice Sununu's John Birch rating (4.00 / 1)

He is their second favorite Senator:

Coburn (R-OK): 60
Sununu (R-NH): 59
Gregg (R-NH): 45
Hatch (R-UT): 41
Snowe (R-ME): 27

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by: elwood @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 11:05:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I also wanted to add (4.00 / 1)

That you mention Buchanan against Dole in '96, but Buchanan against GHW Bush in '92 was probably a bigger event (he got like 30-40% in the NH primary), signaling to the world just how unpopular the Bush Presidency was and opening the door for that chart-toting businessman from Texas to chime in about the deficit and that young saxophone-playing Governor from Arkansas to take the win against an incumbent. Hugh Gregg wrote a book called, "A Tall State Revisited: A Republican Perspective" about the NH primary that talks somewhat extensively about that race.

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 20:56:16 PM CDT

One factor against Paul (4.00 / 1)

especially compared to Buchanan's 1996 victory: the role of the undeclared voter.

In 1996 there was no contest in the Democratic primary: the fun ballot to cast was the Republican one.

In 2008 there is a broad array of choices to lure Independents on the Dem side.

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by: elwood @ Tue Aug 07, 2007 at 10:30:42 AM CDT

Ron Paul winning (0.00 / 0)

That would certainly give all the corporate lobbiest a cause to pause. I heard he won't take their money. I guess that's really not that surprising though considering that they said he gives part of his congressional budget back to the US Treasury every year. That's really different. I believe that he does what he says becuase of his voting record. I guess the one thing that gets questioned the most is his view on welfare and other entitlement programs. A lot of people are worried about him starving "grandma" and the 2 kids her 16 yr old left her to feed. He actually said he wasn't planning on doing that or cutting anybodies entitlements. He just believes so strongly in the Constitution and the way a republic should work that if there is no IRS and income tax on labor, people would have a lot more money and be able to put that into the system. Not to mention the money we save when we bring the troops home. I really am ready for a change. I don't want the NAU and all of the CFR members are for that. I want the US to stay a free country.

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by: AWMWTP @ Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 00:46:27 AM CDT

I don't expect he would be prudent (0.00 / 0)

with the Presidential veto pen. His views on constitutional interpretation could terribly upset the economy if he were to just jump in head first and veto all of the bills the he votes against as a legislator. It's kind of scary to think about.

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by: Alex Gallichon @ Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 16:18:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ron Paul (0.00 / 0)

I think Ron Paul's chances are much higher than most are aware of. The media is doing everything it can to squash his campaign but through meet-up groups he has a grass roots army of supporters working for him. I hope I'm not just dismissed as a troll here. I've been a lifelong democrat and never voted republican in my life but I'm a FERVENT supporter of Ron Paul. I know that I'm not alone in belieiving that he has strong across the board appeal. It is not a good comparison to compare him to Barry Goldwater. No one can accuse Dr. Paul of being 2 faced - he has the most consistent speaking and voting record of any politician since JFK. And like JFK, he wants to eliminate the Federal Reserve system. This is why he is a huge threat to the established facist system we have running the country now and also why he has huge across the board appeal like JFK.
On youtube there are posts of the large croud of his suporters at the recent Iowa debate but ABC news showed a picture of one lone suporter and another picture of a few Mitt Romney supporters, which is all the supporters Romney had at the event.
Dr. Paul continues to win on-line polls by huge margins (30% points) but the media minimizes this and only reports the polls done via phone land lines where his name is less known.
Please realize that to my knowledge there are only 2 democrats running that are not members of the Trilateral Commission - Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich. If you are planning on voting for any other candidate besides them or Ron Paul you are voting for the ENEMY within our country that is backed by the international bankers who control the Federal Reserve. This enemy has artificially divided this country into a left and right wing and controls both of the major parties. Do a google search on America: From Freedom to Facism to understand our nation's problems.

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by: pljforall @ Wed Aug 08, 2007 at 22:15:11 PM CDT