The ARG poll in June was always to be taken with a huge expanse of grains of sand - these polls represent a much more realistic take. To put it in perspective, it's a sign of major weakness for an incumbent to be below 50%. When they're not only below 50% but the challenger leads, that's happy-dance time. As long as the happy-dance is followed by hard work, because it's always difficult to defeat an incumbent.

(Changed the title.)

Laura Clawson :: Shaheen Leads in Two New Polls

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Shaheen Leads in Two New Polls | 9 comments

The tale of two diaries... (0.00 / 0)

You seem not to worry about the gap of nearly 25 points from perceived support and actual support. I do

Of course to have John E. in the low 40's is great news, but Shaheen is a quisi-incumbent and these poll numbers to not bode well for her either. Particularly telling is the Rasmussen poll that shows them both with the same net favorable numbers of 7 points. Both have favorables (barely) at 50%--or less depending on the MOE.

Polls this early are a little silly to examine, but one thing is very clear, Democrats should give serious pause about whether this is the best path to win the election in November of 08.

by: Stark Blue @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 20:38:57 PM CDT

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I read your diary. (0.00 / 0)

I think it's basically silly to have ever placed any faith in the earlier ARG poll, for about a dozen reasons. I still don't put much faith at all in ARG, for the reason that they're a crap pollster at best and dishonest at worst. If this had just been an ARG poll I wouldn't have posted it at all. Rasmussen I still don't think is awesomely great or anything, but at least they're not outright tainted.

by: Laura Clawson @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 23:38:23 PM CDT

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Trash the polls all you want... (0.00 / 0)

Two polls taken on the same weekend with the same basic results.

As I have stated elsewhere, it is two early to make conclusions based these polls...but they certainly undermine the conclusion that some people make about the inevitability of Gov. Shaheen defeating Sununu.

by: Stark Blue @ Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 06:58:48 AM CDT

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I don't think it's inevitable. (0.00 / 0)

I think it's always difficult to defeat an incumbent and that Sununu is a strong campaigner and it's going to be a tough job. But these polls unequivocally show that we've got a great chance of doing so. By any measure but the bullshit-earlier-poll measure, these are dream results.

Is Shaheen the only candidate who would stand a chance of beating Sununu? No, I don't believe that. But she's a strong candidate, and if you don't like her you can vote for someone else in the primary. Do you prefer another candidate? If so, rather than wailing doom about Shaheen, how about advancing a positive case for that candidate.

by: Laura Clawson @ Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 12:16:17 PM CDT

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Rasmussen (4.00 / 1)

As I posted on the thread Stark Blue started on this topic, I just threw away $19.95 and paid to see the Rasmussen "cross-tabs" which are not cross-tabs but just the results to all the questions asked broken down by demographics. Anyway, he's got 28% of self-described liberals saying they agreed with Gen. Petraeus' recommendations.

I'm a Jeanne Shaheen friend and staffer.

by: Judy Reardon @ Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 20:57:56 PM CDT

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I bet if they had a 29.99 package it would say that (0.00 / 0)

28% of self described Liberals agreed it was "General Betray-us". You just didn't pay enough. :)

Judy, are you in the market for any swamp land, too? If you have any other spare change burning a hole in your pocket you can mail it to me direct at.....:)

If the 1200 people who supported the "Draft Shaheen" movement want to bail Judy out so she never has to admit the embarrassment of being out that 19.95 all we have to do is send her 1.6625 cents each.

That's my two cents. Judy your never going to live this down.

by: nhpoliticscom @ Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 06:45:33 AM CDT

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Something Odd (0.00 / 0)

When I saw that 50% agreed with that, I knew something was off. It also said something like 15% more women supported Jeanne Shaheen, and 8% more independents, which led me to ask, how did they get to a 5% lead, shouldn't it be higher? But enough about polls - how about that Sununu attacking Gov. Shaheen himslef right out of the gate in the AP interview? He is worried, which tells me he's got polls a little different than Rasmussen!!

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on." Franklin D. Roosevelt

by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 07:17:47 AM CDT

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The Game Plan (0.00 / 0)

Attack, lie, print false signs, steal votes, oh yeah , the Sununus be jammin' !

Next time, there may be no next time.

by: Jon Bresler @ Wed Sep 19, 2007 at 15:31:52 PM CDT

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