Is it Mark Penn's Fault Obama Now Leads in Third NH Poll?

Obama's change message resonates with undeclared voters and women (0.00 / 0)

It is significant that undeclared voters embraced Rep. Paul Hodes (who represented change in leadership, and who has endorsed Senator Obama).

It is also significant that, according to the Monitor poll, Senator Clinton no longer owns the gender gap. It seems that, in addition to the undeclared but likely primary voters, New Hampshire women are turning toward Obama as well.

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by: jhutson @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 05:34:44 AM CST

The Comeback Kid (0.00 / 0)

I speculated in a comment yesterday that voters want to see a candidate change over the course of a campaign: maybe growth, maybe redemption, but change is an expected part of the campaign drama.

If there's anything to that, the "experience" positioning - used by Gore in 2000, too - may be doomed to failure (unless you're the incumbent President: after four years, we've seen your growth already).

In 1992 Bill Clinton bet everything on an appearance on 60 Minutes. It violated the strict message discipline that the campaign practiced (remember "It's the economy, stupid?"). There was no control over what questions would be asked, or what the story would be on Monday (though Gennifer Flowers was bound to be part of it).

It worked.

Hillary needs a similar appearance / ceremony. She needs to admit her faults, and she needs to humbly ask for our help. (I don't believe she has claimed to have no faults, and I know she has asked for our help at every event. But that isn't was has stuck to her public persona.)

And it could work, too.

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by: elwood @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 06:02:20 AM CST

I wonder (0.00 / 0)

other places have been mentioning it, I wondering If we'll see some sort of campaign shake up after NH with Bill C in a more prominent role, in an attempt appealing to voters sense of nostalgia. It would be a tricky balance... but it may be the last card the HRC campaign has to play.

With the Christmas and New years holiday it seems like we are too close to voting to make big change at this point, though I could be wrong. After NH would be a natural spot.... maybe able to get away with it late next week

Hope > Fear




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by: Mike Hoefer @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 08:01:57 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I believe Hillary has burned all her bridges. Especially with the Public (0.00 / 0)

  Hillary did herself in on the orchestrated Sunday programs with the same questions and the same answers to those same questions.

 Hillary does not feel our pain, as Bill used to say. She has had 3 too many planted questions in the audience (Iowa), 1 too many Gay Brig Generals at Republican Debates,
2 too many leaked stories on fellow democrats that have back fired.

Bill asked for forgivness, he was only human, and he recieved it through re election. Where was hillary, and why wasn't she taking care of her husband?

 The American Democratic Voter is done with her B.S., we have had way too much GW.Bush and we can't take no more.

 If we don't do it who will?
Teach a mind, change a nation!

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by: Granitdamit @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 16:12:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

This is just disgusting. (2.67 / 3)

The sort of offensive stuff I would expect from a Republican operative.

The 'gay general' is a reason to oppose Senator Clinton. "Why wasn't she taking care of her husband?"

I'll go wash up.

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by: elwood @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 18:16:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

NH Republican : Phonebanking for John Edwards in Concord (0.00 / 0)

Married to a Democrat a Republican supports Edwards because of his stand on Health Insurance and the War. Don't put all your faith in Polls...although after the election all the pundits are geniuses. No one predicted Obama's recent rise, outside of his supporters. The Race is too close to call in Iowa, and NH will not be 'in the bag' until the fluid last five days.

We represent the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop guild.

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by: JonnyBBad @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 06:22:22 AM CST

I want to believe (0.00 / 0)

That Hillary is done and will stay down. That will be true, if Obama deftly manages the tipping point.

As for Indies, look back to the Political Chowder that Caulfield was on.

As for Rep. Splaine's multiple offerings to Hillary, I can only hope that she ignores him the rest of the way.

Besides a prostrate Hillary, humbled before the masses is about as plastic as you can get and Edwards has already played that card!

SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.

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by: Sleeping Giant Stirs @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 07:18:18 AM CST

"Clinton guru Mark Penn's strategy is to treat Senator Clinton's candidacy as if she were the incumbent in the race" (0.00 / 0)

That has frustrated me more than any other aspect of the Democratic race.  The arrogance of the Clinton campaign on that, right down to giving her staff t-shirts that say "The Primary Team", is extremely angering to me.

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 08:10:53 AM CST

Maybe it's just me (4.00 / 1)

But it strikes me as fundamentally inconsistent for the Clinton Campaign to have touted change and then to have chosen Bill Shaheen as the co-chair of the campaign because he was an old familiar from the Bill Clinton days.
There's been a disconnect between the message and the actions from the start and the idea that ordinary folk are too dense to notice is really insulting.
Hillary's experience with health care was a failure.  Hillary's experience with promoting the well-being of children is a failure.  Our children are fatter now than they were two decades ago, but they aren't any better off.  They're not smarter; they're not more athletic; and they're not excelling in math and science or art and music or foreign languages either.  Our children are using fewer illegal drugs, but everybody's using more legal drugs, except for the veterans coming home with PTSD who are having to self-medicate with alcohol and sleeping pills.

I have a flier on my desk that announces "Every American Family Deserves Health Care"  To which I answer, "no madam, health care is not a matter of deserts.  In any rational society, health care is a matter of right.  It's an entitlement.  It's not something that has to be earned by being compliant with some official directive."

Frankly, I don't think the Senator has it in her.  She thinks what she thinks because she thinks it and that's how it's going to be.  
While someone who thinks is preferable to someone who believes, that's not what we need.  What we need is someone who knows how to do things.  Baking cookies would be a start.

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by: hannah @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 10:15:18 AM CST

Yeah Hannah! I agree 100% (0.00 / 0)

Baking cookies would be a start  
We are ready for any one to be President regardless of Age, Sex, or Religion.
As long as they know how to do the right thing.

Hillary does not know how, nor do the people she has surrounded herself with.

 If we don't do it who will?
Teach a mind, change a nation!

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by: Granitdamit @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 16:19:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If the 2008 primaries have taught us anything... (0.00 / 0)

...it's that running as the presumptive front runner doesn't work. It was a colossal failure for McCain, and the strategy doesn't seem to have helped Hillary at all.

It's not bad to be the presumptive front runner, mind you. The bad part is when you start making that part of your strategy. In my always humble opinion, front runners make themselves look better when they demonstrate that they are still working hard for every vote and running a lean, mean campaign.

It's about perception, and I hope nobody will seriously argue the importance of that.

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by: Delegator @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 10:55:46 AM CST

Obama strong, not Penn weak! (0.00 / 0)

The premise of this diary just struck me and I must retort!

The Clinton campaign was flawed from day one, because at the heart of it was Hillary Clinton, NOT the best choice for the party or America.

We can argue this I guess, but Hillary "supporters" are voting with their feet as the cumulative field data indicates.

Obama has been doing all the little things right, or maybe more correctly, ALMOST all of the little things.

I certainly don't think that Obama made the mistake that Hannah describes:
On Clinton

There's been a disconnect between the message and the actions from the start and the idea that ordinary folk are too dense to notice is really insulting.

And by little things, I mean less hyped by media, not in importance.

Like this:

Obama Campaign Announces Arts Platform

NH Department of Cultural Resources Commissioner Van McLeod endorses Obama
MANCHESTER, NH-Senator Barack Obama's New Hampshire campaign announced Senator Obama's platform to support the arts today.  As President, Obama will:

Invest in arts education to reinvigorate the kind of creativity and innovation that has made America great and that it will take to compete in a global economy
Support increased funding for the National Endowment for the Arts
Promote cultural diplomacy to encourage American artists, performers, and thinkers to represent our best values and ideals throughout the world
Ensure that artists have access to health insurance and are treated fairly under the tax code

You can read more about the plan HERE.

On the heels of releasing the platform, the campaign also announced the endorsement of New Hampshire Department of Cultural Resources Commissioner Van McLeod of Concord.

"Obama's platform will provide the kind of support for the arts that the Bush administration has neglected," McLeod said.  "But more than that, it reflects some of the core values that attracted me to his candidacy: restoring our global leadership, giving our children every opportunity to succeed in today's economy, advancing economic fairness, and ensuring healthcare coverage for every American."

Van McLeod is currently the Commissioner for the State of New Hampshire's Department of Cultural Resources.  Prior to his job as Commissioner he served as Producing Director for the North Country Center for the Arts in Lincoln; Founder and Producer of First Night New Hampshire in Concord and was the Producing Director of the Kearsarge Theatre Company in Warner.   Van has won the Granite State Award for outstanding public service, was recognized by Business NH Magazine, "NH Leaders for the 21st Century" in 2000 and has been listed in Who's Who in Entertainment. He was one of four American Fellows at the Salzburg Seminars, "The Power of Theater: Artistry, Entertainment, and Social Commentary". He was recently honored with a lifetime achievement award at the New Hampshire Theatre Awards.

McLeod will serve on Senator Obama's national Arts Policy Committee.

My oldest daughter is enrolled in the Lowell HS Fine Arts Academy with a focus on CG Animation and she has joined the Student Drama Club. As a very proud parent, art is relevant in our lives.

I was caught off guard by the press release above, but knowing Barack Obama's candidacy the way I do, I was not surprised.

SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.

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by: Sleeping Giant Stirs @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 11:41:52 AM CST

Well, well, anyone can cross over (0.00 / 0)

As I understand your state rules..........anyone can vote in either primary.  If a republican wants to eliminate a strong Democrat candidate how better than to help her opposition during the primary.  Your state needs to fix the hole in your voting process.

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by: boohall @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 12:07:13 PM CST

You don't understand our rules. (0.00 / 0)

So maybe learn them before telling us how to run things.

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by: elwood @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 12:29:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Now, now Elwood,,, (4.00 / 1)

We must educate.
   Only Democrats and Independants ( or as we call them, Undeclared), can vote in the Democratic primary. And the independents must actually become Democrats on Election Day in order to vote in the Democratic Primary. (They are free to switch back to independent any time after voting). Republicans can not vote and cant switch to independent in order to vote (this can be done earlier in the year, but the deadline is long past).
  Now, would you like to retract?

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:07:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Any info on party switch (0.00 / 0)

Does the SoS make the number of enrollment switches public?
How many Republicans entered the pool of eligible voters on the blue ticket?

And how many went Repug? Ha!


SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.

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by: Sleeping Giant Stirs @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:15:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They did last time (0.00 / 0)

See here.

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by: elwood @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:33:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thank you (0.00 / 0)

This list is post-election. Is the number of party switches this lat November published?

Like "1000" switched from R to U or "1000" switched from U to D?

I know what I want, I just don't know how to ask properly:v(

SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.

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by: Sleeping Giant Stirs @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:55:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

From the 2004 primary: (4.00 / 1)

Very interesting table at the bottom.

It took me a few readings to understand it.

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by: elwood @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:54:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's the war, stupid (0.00 / 0)

If one accepts the premise that the Iraq War has been the most bloody and shameful chapter in a generation of our nation's history, how could one possibly bestow his/her one precious vote upon Hillary Clinton (or John Edwards, for that matter), who helped make this horrific mistake a reality?

Barack Obama had the courage and integrity to stand up and oppose this senseless war from the start. It's time to let the world know that we have acknowledged this dark mistake and will no longer reward the characters who were shamefully complicit in it.

America desperately needs an image makeover.  It's time to embrace a new and hopeful future.

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by: middlechild @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:03:25 PM CST

Ah, the IRONY of it all (4.00 / 2)

You all probably know by now that I am a huge fan of our resident expert, Prof. Dante Scala, so I must ask if anyone ever read his book, Stormy Weather.  

There's a big section in it about the 2000 primary, and how Bill Bradley got some surprising traction because Gore wasn't connecting personally with voters and wasn't taking unscripted questions at NH events.  (Acting too much like an incumbent!?)  

Bill Shaheen is portrayed in the book (as I recollect) as the rescuer who came in and shook up Team Gore, loosened him up, and insisted he drop the prescripted, preapproved (can you say PLANTED) questions on note cards, and got him to connect with NH voters one on one.

Does that strike anyone else as IRONIC??

(DJS: I hope I just scored you a few more sales!)


Paula M. DiNardo
Dover NH

A Blue Hampster since 2007!

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by: pdinardo @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:21:16 PM CST

There's nothing more dangerous than a safe campaign n/t (4.00 / 1)

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by: elwood @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 13:34:37 PM CST

It's not Penn's Fault! It is Hillary's! (1.00 / 4)

 Hillary is not Bill, They are day and night. Where was Hillary when Bill was busy with Jenn Flowers? Or Lewinsky?
 She did not have cabinet meetings to attend, she had no cabinet.
 Hill has less experience than Kucinich and makes more mistatments, mistakes and gotch blow ups.
She is Imploding her own Campaign.
She is the one in charge of this fiasco. And the American voter is tired of the act.
 She knew about Mark Penn's  involvment and representation of anti Union company's...
Heck Hillary sat on Walmarts board.... People know a liar when they see one.
Hillary is just that. She has proven over and over again what a putz she truly is.
Get over it and lets take bake the White House with a Respectable candidate.

 If we don't do it who will?
Teach a mind, change a nation!

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by: Granitdamit @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 14:50:00 PM CST

I usually don't do this (4.00 / 1)

But, you appear today for the first time, posting this nasty stuff?  

Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 

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by: Kathy Sullivan @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 19:57:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Justifiable n/t (0.00 / 0)

SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.

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by: Sleeping Giant Stirs @ Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 20:06:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's not nasty It is True!.... It is all on the net and in the history books. (0.00 / 0)

 
The Truth Hurts!  Penn saved Bill Clinton... look it up.

It is up to the candidate to surround themselves with people that represent the thoughts and the actions of the candidate.

 Look at GEORGE W.Bush and tell me that is not true!

Look at John F Kennedy and tell me that is not true!

Look at any president and you will see that those who are picked to surround them to give advice, and sit on the cabinet shape the presidency and the future of the country...

We are in the IRAQ war because of Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, and Rumsfield. They shaped the way we reacted.

Now look at each Democratic candidate, who they have surrounded themselves with and the way the campaign is going.... There is the truth.
We need a democrat in the white house

 If we don't do it who will?
Teach a mind, change a nation!

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by: Granitdamit @ Sat Dec 15, 2007 at 11:33:07 AM CST

[ Parent ]

get ready for defeat Kathy (0.00 / 0)

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by: Helenann @ Thu Jan 03, 2008 at 10:39:07 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I am surprised at the anger and passion in this exchange (0.00 / 0)

I have been an Obama supporter from almost day one.  There are many reasons for my choice, but adding a Clinton for eight years after 16 years of Clinton and Bush had a lot to do with it.  In my view we need fresh blood--many good Democratic friends disagree-- so be it.  I will vote for her if she is the nominee.

I don't think Penn is the problem unless he is behind some of more recent gaffs that Hillary made.  I think she (or members of her staff) has made critical mistakes ranging from the aloofness when she was playing the "inevitable" card--to the Bush like representation of her war vote-- to the kindergarten comment-- to the drug comment-- to the laughing ("how you going to answer that" attempted putdown) at the last debate.

These "gaffes" have played into the negative stereotype many hold of her.

As an Obama supporter, up until a few weeks ago, I was beginning to "wilt" as he was not coming on-- he to some part has changed that, but she has made a major contribution to his surge.  However, I do not think the issue is settled-- we have a long way to go.

Dan Richardson  

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by: dputrich @ Sat Dec 15, 2007 at 05:25:11 AM CST