| A big day for tracking the Senate race - how I wish I had more faith in either polling outfit.
First up is ARG. Yeah, I know, ARG, but it's a poll: Shaheen 58%
Sununu 36%
6% undecided, poll taken 7/19-21, 600 sample size, MoE +/- 4%.
Next up is UNH (.pdf here). Please refer to Laura's two diaries here and here for our concerns about it. Shaheen 46%
Sununu 42%
10% undecided, taken 7/11-20, 519 sample size, MoE +/-4.3% Finally, based on these new polls, CQ has, correctly, imho, changed their rating to "Leans Democratic" from "No Clear Favorite."
Takeaway: conventional wisdom is starting to solidify nationally that Sununu is in serious trouble. And for us watching more closely, we have two more polls that still show him well below the magic 50% number needed for an incumbent to show any kind of job security. And as far as where the electorate is in reference to the two polls, my best guess is that it's probably somewhere in-between ARG and UNH, which is essentially where it was in previous polling. |
