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It's Raining Polls

by: Dean Barker

Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 21:36:50 PM EDT


It positively rained New Hampshire polls today - I'm only just now catching up to them.

Let's start with the presidentials. Marist College has Obama leading, and with a good sample size of registered voters, and more so with leaners factored in:

Registered Voters:
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

Likely Voters (w/ Leaners):
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Sample: 765 reg. voters. Conducted 9/17-9/21, MoE +/-3.5%

And check out the enthusiasm gap:
70% of Obama's backers are excited about the candidates running for president while 49% of McCain's report they are enthused.
On to Rasmussen, which was the real (bad) surprise of the day, and unfortunately I have no access to their sample data without paying for it.  First up, the presidentials have McCain ahead by a couple, mimicking the Faux Hampshire poll. A click at the link suggests that McCain has shored up his support among the GOP here (a result of Palin? I personally don't think so, but who knows?)
Obama 49%
McCain 47%

Sample size: 700. Conducted 9/23. MoE +/-4%

On to Ras' Senate poll, the real shocker of the day, so much so I can only believe we have an outlier on our hands here, especially given that just yesterday Shaheen was beating Sununu by four in a poll that oversampled Republicans by 7%, and ARG still has them worlds apart:
Sununu 52%
Shaheen 45%

Sample size: 700. Conducted 9/23. MoE +/-4%

Next up, Paul Hodes released an internal poll today to counter the sly NRCC poll taken right after Horn won the nomination (courtesy SSP):
Anzalone-Liszt for Paul Hodes (9/14-18, likely voters):

   Paul Hodes (D-inc): 50
   Jennifer Horn (R): 32
   Chester Lapointe (L): 4
   (MoE: ±4.4%)

Looks like not a whole lot to worry about there.

And rounding out the end, we come to the third, Congressional iteration of the WMUR/UNH Granite State Poll of Faux Hampshire, the land of 7% more Republicans than New Hampshire:

Carol Shea-Porter 42%
Jeb Bradley 45%

Sample size: 252. Conducted 9/14-9/21. MoE +/-6.2%

Paul Hodes 38%
Jennifer Horn 26%

Sample size: 271. Conducted 9/14-9/21. MoE +/-6%

Note that CSP is doing substantially better than she did in the previous UNH poll.  And elwood clarifies and appends:
Registered voters in sample:
NH-01
D: 59 R: 67 U: 98

NH-02
D: 60 R: 91 U: 104

50% more Republicans than Democrats in Hodes' district.
Faux Hampshire sure is odd.

It sure is. I wonder if they tap fake maple syrup from the maple trees there too?
Dean Barker :: It's Raining Polls
Tags: , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
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It appears that Rasmussen (0.00 / 0)
really pushes respondents to choose a candidate. Very few undecideds in their numbers.

This is the best showing (4.00 / 2)
for Chester LaPointe I've seen yet. 4% of NH-02 is impressive.

(Full disclossure: I have never heard of him before.)


Like Bob Barr's 10% showing (0.00 / 0)
in a recent Zogby poll for NH.

Absurd, even given our Ron Paul heavy libertarian electorate.

birch, finch, beech


[ Parent ]
Ok now Elwood, come clean... (4.00 / 1)
We all know that you're actually Chester LaPointe behind there, whoever he is.....

P.S -- Was LaPointe the guy who had the signs with the trowel on it during the primary? (or was it a duck? Driving by fast it looked like a duck).


[ Parent ]
Need to take lessons! (0.00 / 0)
It appears from the UNH poll that those designing the poll needs to start attending classes there. Because its obvious they didnt learn much from their first poll this year.

Wynter



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