| Job Qualifications: Gregg has been a key member of the Senate Budget Committee, now its ranking member and previously its Chairman. He has a degree in tax law. He served as Governor of New Hampshire and helped stabilize its budget.
In general, this resume seems strong for Director of the OMB. It is less relevant to heading the Commerce Department. The promotion of American industrial and business sectors is not a matter of managing budgets, and the development and analysis of data in the Bureau of Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis often involves statistical analysis that goes beyond financial metrics.
Grade: 3
Skeletons: Gregg appears to be a straight arrow. No hints of corruption, personal scandals, or tax problems have surfaced (welcome after Geithner and Daschle!)
Grade: 5
Strengthening Economic Team: We intended this to cover both technical and political strengths. As noted above, Gregg brings very little in terms of technical strengths. His expertise is in basic financials, not macro-economics. Politically he adds very little: there really is no sizable constituency that will dismiss Geithner and Summers but be convinced by Gregg. In particular: the previous candidate, Governor Richardson, might have provided more "populist" credentials to balance the Wall Street weight. Gregg offers nothing in that area.
Grade: 2
Relationships with the GOP: We knew this would be questionable in our first meeting. The Commerce Secretary doesn't call the shots, so putting Gregg in the slot doesn't give Republicans great new policy strength in the Administration. There will be new opportunities for other Senators - I believe Grassley would become Ranking Member on the Budget Committee. But the proof of the pudding is in the tasting (thank you for correcting me on that last week, Mr. President). Since Gregg's name was leaked, McConnell has promised a filibuster, and key Senate Republicans are demanding a Republican replacement for his seat. There appears to be minimal gain in bipartisanship from this move.
Grade: 2
Key Constituencies: Again, a comparison to Richardson provides context. Where Richardson is Hispanic and has strong ties to that community, Gregg has often supported retributive immigration proposals. He also has voted against the Bureau of Census recommendations on developing a more accurate count through statistical sampling methods: that would tend to favor poorer and urban areas, and has been opposed by Republicans who believe it would strengthen Democratic constituencies. Gregg has worked against traditional Democratic constituencies, voting against children's health care and for elimination of the minimum wage. He has not been a champion of any particular economic or demographic groups; his only constituency benefits to us would come from the Republican base, and we believe he is not effective for us there (see above).
Grade: 1
Key Administration Themes: Two themes are relevant here: the "team of rivals" bipartisan model and transparency. He clearly helps with bipartisanship - but not as much as we had hoped. Many Republicans consider him a traitor for even considering the position (does your Blackberry let you look at the Manchester Union Leader reader comments?) On transparency Gregg is a poster boy - for the wrong side. He is the architect of the Bush TARP bailout plan, and was appointed to the oversight panel, but quit before attending any meetings. If we want to emphasize transparency, especially regarding the economic recovery program, he will be a poor face to use.
Grade: 3
Realpolitik: The recovery plan is going to pass with or without Gregg (and he will be with it, even staying in the Senate, unless he decides to retire in 2010). The Governors are demanding it - Sarah Palin is pushing for it. We don't need Gregg for that.
You wondered who Gov. Lynch would name to the vacancy. He seems to have been floating his own trial balloons - and the names mentioned most often are Republicans. They seem to be "economic" Republicans rather than "family values" activists, but they are not "liberal" along the lines of Jim Jeffords. The whispered names supposedly would not run in 2010 - but that isn't enforceable, look at all the Congressmen who backed out of term limits pledges. Gregg would be a weak candidate in 2010 - his approvals were one point above John E. Sununu last July. There is a real possibility that Lynch would replace Gregg with a stronger Republican, making it harder for the Democrats to win the seat in 2010.
Grade: 1
Overall Grade: 17 in a range of 7 to 35.
Recommendation: Do not make offer to Gregg. |
