Stoopidico

Add one more: (4.00 / 1)

If Lynch were to pick a sitting member of the House, New Hampshire would have to hold a special election for the vacancy that would be created there - at a cost of $5 million to $6 million.

That number is bogus. I've seen it claimed by an Iowa official for his state; my own back-of-the-envelope calculation came to maybe $100,000 incremental cost for a statewide election. (We rely mostly on cheap part-time labor. City clerks and Bill Gardner are paid whether there is a special election or not.) That didn't include the cost of programming the scanners, but I can't see anything driving the costs up to the millions of dollars.

Our legislators should get an estimate from the Secretary of State's office.

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by: elwood @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 05:34:52 AM CST

even in a reg. cogressional election there'd be about 250,000 (0.00 / 0)

votes, right?

Does it really cost $20 a vote to run an election?

Maybe Jim can speak up here. we know it doesn't cost much to recount an election here. And the machines are bought, the poll workers are free. We'd be doing only one district -- I'd be surprised if the whole thing cracked $200,000.

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by: Mike Caulfield @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:06:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Not quite free (0.00 / 0)

I'm a pollworker. If I work the full day I get $60 for maybe 16 hours work.

Including that I get my rough numbers.

There is a much greater costs for the candidate campaigns, of course. But that falls into the category of "economic stimulus" not "tax burden."

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by: elwood @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:08:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

free enough I think. n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: Mike Caulfield @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:13:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I Think Elwood's Estimate Is In The Ballpark (4.00 / 1)

I think Elwood's estimate is in the ballpark for a Congressional Special Election.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:18:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Every single vote in a NH election costs $57.75. (4.00 / 2)

If you're Mitt Romney.

$54.31 if you're Rudy Giuliani.

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by: Tim C. @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 15:09:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Lynch ... massaging his inner republican (4.00 / 3)

As I was watching Senator Kyle on Fox news make his cryptic comment that he was sure that Judd Gregg had thought out the possibility of losing a Republican seat in the Senate and that he was sure that "he would not leave his Republican colleagues in the lurch". I suddenly realized that Kyle had made a slight error, it was not Gregg but John Lynch that was not going to leave his Republican colleagues in the lurch.

Bonnie, is a smart political cookie, but what she does is lay a credible foundation for the Republican party to rebuild. If that is Lynch's rationale, to help Papa Sununu revive the Republican party than I hope he is honest about it.

This calculated move by Lynch may actually be a blessing. It should free up the democratic majorities in the NH house and senate to do what is in the best interest of NH not genuflect to their "democratic" governor's ambitions. NH needs leadership, it is now clear it must come from the House and Senate and not the corner office!
arnie arnesen

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by: political chowder @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 06:48:35 AM CST

It seems to me that (0.00 / 0)

she only helps transform the state party if she decides to run in 2010 after all. A seat-warmer cannot be transformative; it's in the job description.

Does she serve in the US Senate then run for Governor in 2010? It's hard for me to see how that would work. It's a short stint to begin with; spending 9 months of it campaigning for another office would be awkward.

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by: elwood @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 06:56:54 AM CST

[ Parent ]

bonnie can be transformative elwood (4.00 / 1)

Bonnie can accomplish alot in two years, especially given the challenges ahead - but look what Gregg has accomplished:
Son Sununu loses and Gregg gives up his seat on the TARP oversight committee to John E. (high profile, very impt),
Gregg, who has been a hand maiden for industry, is now the head of Commerce (High profile, very impt) and now
Gregg gets to "Make a deal with Lynch (sounds like "I've got this thing and it's (expletive) golden,"} about his replacement and puts a smart Republican woman in his seat who could never get elected in a Republican primary but as a sitting US senator could only help to give republicans a better state wide image and enhance their leadership nationally.

So far...it is looking like Christmas for NH GOP Chair Sununu who thinks Lynch is the worst governor ever and NH is going to hell in a hand basket. Lynch just gave Sununu's Republican party the best gift they could have ever asked for. They now have a sitting Governor who embraces the Republican position on taxes, the death penalty and the constitutional amendment on Claremont and, to add frosting to the cake, he even appoints talented Republicans to the US Senate (maybe Gov. Sununu should hire Lynch as a political consultant)

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by: political chowder @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:49:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed but (4.00 / 1)

Maybe it's a lack of imagination on my part. But unless Newman actually runs in 2010, this seems like a short-lived gain - to be wiped out when the next Republican primaries give the party its traditional face.

But then, I think she would run in 2010. The pledge can easily be reconsidered "in light of the grave problems facing our nation." So Dems would face a stronger candidate than Gregg would have been.

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by: elwood @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:56:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

For what purpose? (0.00 / 0)

Arnie, you are missing a major factor in the equation.

John Lynch also is smart. You explain to me why John Lynch would stick it to Barack Obama's effort to get to 60 Democratic votes in the senate.  What does he gain? He already is the most popular person in the state. What does he lose?  A lot, including (a) the good will of the White House at a time when the White House is working on an ecomonic stimulus package that could help New Hampshire, and (b) the good will of the Democrats in New Hampshire, who right now are the controlling voting bloc.

With all due respect, you are letting your disagreement with John Lynch on a couple of policy issues interfere with your analysis.

As for our Democratic governor's "ambitions", what's the ambition? to be in the senate? Nope, he already took himself out of the '010 race.  That dog don't hunt.  

The speculation here has been that Barack Obama is looking for a dead certain 60 Democratic votes in the US Senate.  Maybe that speculation is wrong. Maybe he is looking for a Republican in the cabinet and an ambassador to Republicans in the US Senate. Maybe he meant everything he said about a new politics and bipartisanship, working together, etc.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:10:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Kathy...of course you know that Obama is in on this deal. (0.00 / 0)

 -Kathy
Obama is a master chess player..nothing, including the Lynch deal is not known by him.He does not need 60Ds in the Senate only 60 votes. It was recently suggested that Judd Gregg was the one Republican most likely to vote with Dems to prevent a filibuster..check this out:

Fili-Buster Watch   http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Which Senate Republicans have voted the most often with the Obama Administration so far?

Yes, the Senate is actually voting on stuff....

One Republican, Olympia Snowe of Maine, has taken the administration's position on all seven votes, as indicated by a blue square in chart below. Two, David Vitter of Louisiana and Jim DeMint of South Carolina, have gone 7-for-7 in opposing the administration (as denoted in red). A couple more thoughts follow after the graphic.

After Snowe, two Republicans have supported the administration on 6 of 7 votes: George Voinovich of Ohio and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire. Voinovich, who always ranks as among the most moderate Republicans, isn't really a surprise, but Gregg, who has a fairly conservative voting record, perhaps is. Such are the perils of running for re-election in a state that Obama won by 10 points...

But overall, there aren't too many surprises here. If there's news, it's that Judd Gregg may have emerged as a top-tier potential filibuster-breaking vote.

SOOOOOO Gregg has been reliable for Obama and this post reinforces the fiction of the 60 D requirement to get what he wants in the Senate.

The question then remains what does NH want? What does NH get with a Republican appointment by Lynch? Who benefits from a republican appointment by Lynch?
Ask GOP Chair Sununu what he thinks is the benefit and you might find your answer. (It might make him gag because he will have to praise Lynch for acting in the best interest of the republican brand.)

...ps. I do have a disagreement with John Lynch on a couple of policy issues, but death penalty, fair taxes and education funding go to the very core of our values, don't you think??

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by: political chowder @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:41:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

No (4.00 / 1)

And your point is what? That Governor Lynch should tell President Obama, if you want Gregg, pick him, and I will do whatever I want?  You aren't that politically naive.  

Actually, I think the core of our values are civil rights, equal rights, workers rights, protecting the rights of seniors and children and promoting the middle class. So no, I don't think a New Hampshire income tax goes to the very core of our values.  But you know that already. And because Democrats did not make support of an income tax a core value in 2004 or 2006, we ended up with a legislature and a governor who enacted civil unions, a minimum wage increase, and some pretty good protection for workers.

But we digress.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:53:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

OF COURSE (4.00 / 1)

Lynch should tell Obama that!!

Call me naive, Kathy. That is exactly what should be happening. Anything else reflects very poorly on both men.

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by: elwood @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:57:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Different for you, Elwood (0.00 / 0)

Elwood, you are not naive; you have taken a principled, consistent position. You believe that the President should offer the job with no preconditions, and that Gregg should make his mind up without any preconditions.  

Burt and Arnie are not looking at it through the same prism as you. They don't like John Lynch. Period, end of story. Oh, they may like him personally, but politically they don't because of some positions they hold very dear. They are entitled to those positions, and they are passionate about those positions. But, as a result, they don't think he is a "good" Democrat, as they define the term.  They have yet to criticize Barack Obama for possibly wanting Judd Gregg as a cabinet secretary, and possibly wanting John Lynch to appoint a Republican to make that happen. Now, you could say I shouldn't expect them to criticize Barack Obama based on speculation, but since they are criticizing John Lynch based on speculation, then I think it is fair to point out the lack of consistency.




"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 09:20:06 AM CST

[ Parent ]

oh no Kathy, no lack of consistency hear but you deliver the message to the appropriate source. (0.00 / 0)

Kathy,
I have been very outspoken on Judd Gregg's dismal record. Check out the letter to the editor written after Mike Pride praised Judd as the best governor in the last 30 years. Not only did I file this with the Concord Monitor but on hearing of Obama's appointment of Judd, I sent it to the administration as well. Bluehampshire is about state politics and John Lynch is "our" Governor. Therefore the actions of Lynch are most appropriate for this discussion...but if you want my thoughts on Judd...check out this letter.
PS did not see you respond to Mike Pride's piece praising Judd? Did you think Mike was spot on?
http://www.concordmonitor.com/...
#
Way too kind to Judd Gregg
Wed Nov 26, 2008

Mike, I love ya, but you must be mixing up your drugs. To suggest that Judd Gregg was the best of the eight governors you graded (beginning with Meldrim Thomson) reflects either memory impairment o... more...  

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by: political chowder @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 09:49:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Spot (4.00 / 1)

If lack of response to editorials is now viewed as approval, I guess that means you approved of all those editorials praising John E. Sununu and attacking Jeanne Shaheen?  

But while you are telling us what you think of Judd Gregg, you still have not told us what you think of Barack Obama for possibly choosing Senator Gregg?  I am surprised that you don't think this is the place to discuss it, as just a couple of posts earlier you put up a lengthy post about (a) Obama being "in on the deal" and (b) a filibuster proof senate?  Which gets us beyond state politics! :)




"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 10:18:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

A caveat (0.00 / 0)

I have a strong suspicion that one major reason behind Gregg's midnight conversion to moderation is that this isn't a brand new argument - I expect he's been aware of the possibility and in discussions with the White House about Commerce for some time now, and so he's been leaning towards cooperation much more than he ever used to. Not nearly as much as Snowe (as some of Silver's follow-ups note, outside of those seven 'high-impact' votes, Gregg has rarely voted with the Democrats), but enough to show support for Obama.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

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by: RealNRH @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 11:56:21 AM CST

[ Parent ]

If you want to contact Gov. Lynch to voice your opinion, here is the link. (0.00 / 0)

http://www.governor.nh.gov/con...

I think Gregg is not competent to be dogcatcher, much less a Senator.  But if Pres. Obama sees something I don't, ( and obviously he does),  he should go for it, ESPECIALLY if it will shift the balance of power to us.  However, Lynch will be committing Political ssuicide if he appoints a Repub. to  replace him.  Funny thing is, Gov.  Lynch has never struck me as an idiot.  

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by: shoeempress @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 06:55:15 AM CST

to your point Dean (0.00 / 0)

It may be more germaine to maintaining Democratic majorities in the state to ask who Republicans consider a 'moderate'. When Republicans like Bonnie Newman endorsed Lynch for Governor the first time, they were considered by Conservatives as traitors. A NH Republicans such as she, who  served two Republican Administrations in Washington, and who were as repulsed as we were by Craig Benson's management style, his 'pediatric pornography' at Jim Demer's roast...you would have to agree that they were mediating for a more moderate Government in New Hampshire. Thank God for that.We won't go back to anti-choice, anti-science types. Remember when Avoid Lamontagne wanted to refuse Goals 2000 money because it mandated teaching sex education and not creationism ? Let's take a step back and think of where we've been. There has been a ton of progress as the state has morphed into a moderate Democratic State from rock ribbed Conservative Republican.  

We represent the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop guild.

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:11:19 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Good Point Jonny, But... (4.00 / 2)

"Let's take a step back and think of where we've been."  Good point, Jonny.  But then we want to put someone who as Shoeempress says "...is not competent to be a dogcatcher, must less a Senator..." in control of an important (yes it is) federal department and on the White House Cabinet?  Just to get him out of the United States Senate?  

Keep in mind, we're not getting rid of Judd Gregg.  He'll be in a more powerful position.  He'll also be making new contacts, and doing hundreds of media interviews and taking dozens of trips to build up to whatever he may do next in politics.  We're building his resume.  

To use your words, we should take a step back and think of where we're going.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 07:27:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Judd Gregg is a Republican-syllogism (4.00 / 1)

Judd Gregg is a Republican
All Republicans are evil.
Judd Gregg is evil.

I can't help but remember a few good things he's done, including getting grants for NH Coalition Against Sexual and Domestic Violence. He's a Conservative and a consistent one, but not totally devoid of redeeming characteristics. From time to time Republicans have tried to eliminate the Dept. of Commerce. That would not happen if he were Secretary. He's known as one of the true budget wonks in Washington, and as such could be helpful toning down the toxic atmosphere that surrounds the budget and stimulus package. He has many faults as well, but he would serve at the pleasure of the President, and I agree with Kathy that it is the President's call. They have certainly worked closer together than any of us have with either, and they can best determine what the relationship will be. John Lynch is the one with the challenge, but I believe in his judgment...as he does with appointments of State Agency heads, he has gone for the best person irrespective of party, and gets high marks from all quarters on the competence of his picks. These are extraordinary times and require a suspension of disbelief. Withholding judgment, as I have found, can be a marvelous way of avoiding over-reaction to calamities that will never occur.

We represent the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop guild.

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 11:52:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Speaking Of Politico (0.00 / 0)

From the front page of Politico today.

Unpublished thought bubbles from this picture:

Guy on left side of photo: "Wow, the Speaker has a nice ass..."

Nancy Pelosi: "Is that kid still behind me? He's giving me the creeps."

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by: Andrew Sylvia @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:04:31 AM CST

FYI: NPR this morning (4.00 / 1)

Linda Wertheimer with the weekly discussion with Cokie Roberts.

Cokie said that rumors are Lynch will appoint Bonnie Newman and she will pledge to not run in 2010.

Linda then said, and Cokie agreed, that Lynch was interested in running for the seat in 2010 and Newman would be a seat-warmer for him.

We've all discounted this here. Lynch is described as unwilling to move to DC and he ruled out running, before there was a possibility of an open seat. But that seems to be the thinking in at least some DC salons.

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by: elwood @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:35:36 AM CST

DC Salon thinking... (4.00 / 3)

Won't buy you a ticket on the metro.

Elwood, that description of John Lynch is based on his own statement to the press about two weeks ago; from the UL on January 14;

Concord - Gov. John Lynch said today he will not be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010.

Lynch, a Democrat, acknowledged speculation in political circles that he might challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg. He said he plans to focus on budget issues here in New Hampshire.

"I can tell you that although I don't know what I'll be doing in 2010, I'm not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn't be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget."

 



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 08:56:43 AM CST

[ Parent ]

"...I will not seek, nor will accept..." n/t (0.00 / 0)

We represent the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop Guild, the Lollypop guild.

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 11:53:43 AM CST

[ Parent ]

DC Pundits Cant Imagine... (4.00 / 3)

... not wanting to come join the Cool Kidz. That's my take on why the talking heads who don't do research are expecting Governor Lynch to be angling for the seat himself. They just can't imagine that he doesn't have ambitions for a D.C. job himself.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

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by: RealNRH @ Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 11:52:37 AM CST

[ Parent ]