(The shift to D in the northern part of the state is one of the least reported, and most interesting, stories out there. Part put below the fold by me. - promoted by Dean Barker)
I tell my friends and colleagues that my congressional district, CD-1, is a remarkable example of rising Democratic tides. More so than most places in New Hampshire, my home area, the Lakes Region, is an enclave for Republicans. Without even looking at empirical data, my thoughts about the reasoning for this trend are numerous. Yet, most important, in my opinion, are the lack of higher education and professional opportunities in the area. Without any UNH or Dartmouth to anchor a progressive atmosphere, the region instead is generally blue collar and has historically been reliably Republican.
When I graduated from high school in 2003, as a certified Deaniac who portrayed Shaheen in a mock debate during the 2002 election, everything except the water was red in my area. I was called a "commie" or "pinko liberal" with a little too much frequency for my liking. Yet, while I was away at college and grad school, a funny thing happened. All of a sudden, Democrats started to win some races. In 2004, I dealt with the bittersweet results of the presidential election, with Kerry's New Hampshire victory representing pretty much the only bright spot for me.
Yet, in the lead-up to the 2006 midterms, I started to notice change in the air. Every time I came home for break, I started to hear wavering or outright disgust from Republican family members about U.S. foreign policy, Dubya, and myriad other issues. (I am the archetype for the "Can't pick family" saying when it comes to the political preferences of my kin.) Nearly all of my family and friends voted for CSP. While I obviously was overjoyed with their voting for our new congresswoman, I must admit that not all the news was joyous. Most of the complaints I heard centered around animosity towards Jeb Bradley and fatigue from the wars. I did not hear anything about CSP's progressive credentials or any other shift in political philosophies.
The 2008 elections provided me a greater basis for my controlled excitement about CD-1. CSP held off Bradley again and Obama beat McCain in Carroll and Belknap counties. Yet, despite my incredulousness, I knew more than a few people who voted for Obama and Sununu! I could not reconcile that vote in my mind and all of my questions were answered with answers about a lack of faith in Shaheen due to school funding. All of a sudden, I felt that my years of advocacy provided me with a little bit of room to brag. I walked a little taller and felt that I was arguing from a position of superiority in debates with friends and family. One more example of the folly of youth, perhaps?
In my next post, I am doing a little empirical research and examining the results from CD-1 over the course of the last 3 elections. My hypothesis is that CD-1 may not actually be turning Democratic permanently, but rather be suffering from Republican fatigue. While this may be CW, I also want to look at the Obama effect in the district. Overall, I am trying to figure out a way to solidify Democratic gains and make sure there is no sliding backwards, especially in the 2010 midterms. In both Oregon and North Carolina I have witnessed/participated in a few grassroots groups that thrive even in non-election years. These could be adapted to New Hampshire quite easily I think. Stay tuned.
