Is Edwards Surging? - Edwards +9 Nationally in a Week

by: jsamuel

Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 22:29:44 PM EST

Rasmussen Daily Tracking

1/6/08
Clinton 36% (-7)
Obama 25% (+1)
Edwards 23% (+9)

12/29/07
Clinton 43%
Obama 24%
Edwards 14%

In a blizzard of New Hampshire polls, one national poll has been largely overlooked -- the Rasmussen national daily tracking poll. In that poll, there's a huge surprise: while Hillary Clinton has dropped seven points since December 29th (from 43 percent to 36 percent), Barack Obama has only gained a point (from 24 percent to 25.) So where has Hillary's support gone?

To John Edwards, who has surged nine points in a week from 14 percent to 23 percent. How can this be?

One possibility is that the saturation media coverage of the Clinton vs. Obama battle in Iowa made Edwards' second place finish a relative surprise. Even though the pundits argued that the state was do-or-die, merely defeating Hillary was novelty enough to give Edwards a bump.

...

If Edwards can top Clinton for second place on Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if voters who leave the Clinton camp continue to move to Edwards.

The whole point of winning Iowa and New Hampshire and other states is to get a boost in national polls so that when super Tuesday comes around, you have a fighting chance.  It seems that at this point, Edwards is poised to do just that.  While he did not win Iowa, his second place finish over Clinton forced many to do a double take.

Edwards realizes that beating Clinton in Iowa also means beating her nationally.  This is why I think Clinton is going after Edwards in New Hampshire like this:

"Senator Clinton's speeches are about people she has actually helped and changes she has actually made, not stories she's pulled from the newspaper and included in her stump," Mr. Carson wrote in an E-mail message.

Mr. Carson's comment was in reference to an emotional town hall event Mr. Edwards held in Manchester early Sunday afternoon, featuring an appearance by the parents of Nataline Sarkisyan, a 17-year-old leukemia patient who died in December after her insurance company denied her a liver transplant.

John Edwards response:

Speaking at a news conference after the Manchester event, Mr. Edwards responded to Mr. Carson's comment when a reporter read it to him.

"The Sarkisyans contacted me because they believe I'm the kind of president who will actually fight for their daughter," Mr. Edwards said. "People who have been through these difficult times against entrenched, powerful moneyed interests - they get it. They get it in a serious way. They're not looking for somebody who'll make deals."

Then after spending an hour on his campaign bus, en route to his next event in Keene, Mr. Edwards called another news conference - before his next event had even started.

"This campaign doesn't seem to have a conscience," he said, adding that he had been thinking about the comment from the Clinton campaign. "The more I thought about it, the idea that somehow everything is about them, I mean, it's an indication that they have no conscience about what's at stake here. These families are who this is about. It's not about them, nor is it about me. It's about whether we're going to actually stand up and fight for these people and how much we care about them."

New Hampshire isn't the only ones watching moments like this: