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Tales From The Bottom Of The Ticket: Straight Ticket Voting Cost The Democrats Several Seats In 06

by: Andrew Sylvia

Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 19:58:33 PM EDT


I've listened to some of my fellow candidates in Democratic safe districts complain about the lack of a straight ticket. I don't get what their problem is considering that the straight ticket made little to no difference to them, but has destroyed any chance for Democrats to win in Republican or swing districts in the past.

The partisan enclaves are still there even without the straight ticket, and candidates in those parties will still have an edge, but not an edge so great that people who don't work hard from the opposite parties won't have a chance.

This improves the race on both side, because perhaps the only thing worse than a candidate who doesn't think they can win is a politician who doesn't think they can lose.

Before 2006, we had no data to prove this, but thankfully the Secretary of State's office counted Straight Ticket ballots just in time for them to be rightfully removed, and those in the enclaves would not have seen their margins changed for the most part.

On the Democratic side, the Upper Valley wouldn't be touched. Grafton 9 (Hanover/Lyme), the safest State Rep District in the State for Democrats, had no Republicans run; and Grafton 11 (Lebanon Wards 1-3) would have seen the Democrats lose 863 votes, leaving a margin of 332 votes between the lowest vote getter among the Democrats and the highest vote getter among the Republicans.

In Keene, the same rings true. There still would have been seven Democrats taking the seven seats there, only with the margin of victory between 7th place and 8th place being 413 rather than 1656.

The same thing happens again and again throughout the Democratic strongholds, which is to be expected since 2006 was a Democratic year anyway, but what about the Republican strongholds?

If there was not a straight ticket vote in 2006, Democrats would have won even more seats.

Hillsborough 18 (Bedford) was the opposite end of the spectrum from Hanover, with Republicans receiving 665 more straight ticket votes than Democrats, but it would have taken another 629 votes for any Democrat to get past the GOP sweep there.

Likewise in with the GOP 7 seat sweep in Belknap 5 (Alton, Barnstead, Belmont and Gilford), where no straight ticket would have netted Democrats 73 votes, but there was a difference of 260 votes between 7th place and 8th place, but that's about it.

There still would have been a recount in Rockingham 11 (East Kingston and Newton), as Mary Allen(r) won the seat by one vote, she only got an extra 16 votes from straight ticketing according to SOS figures.

The GOP sweep in Rockingham 3 (Windham/Salem) would have changed. In that district, Republicans gained 428 votes from straight ticketing, but there were three Democrats who were within that margin.

There were also two Democrats within less than 70 votes in Rockingham 5 (Derry), but Republicans got a bonus 556 votes from straight tickets.

The only district where Democrats would have lost ground is in Hillsborough 14 (Manchester Ward 7), and that was one seat.

Here in Merrimack, we've been a conservative town in the past, but we're becoming a swing town. In '06, there were 18 more Democratic straight tickets than Republican straight tickets believe it or not. I'm not going to weep over losing those 18 votes in exchange for the peace of mind in knowing that in districts like mine, even in bad years, Democrats can win if they work hard.  

Andrew Sylvia :: Tales From The Bottom Of The Ticket: Straight Ticket Voting Cost The Democrats Several Seats In 06
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The straight ticket impact (0.00 / 0)
in southwest NH was not House races. It was some county offices, e.g. Cheshire's Register of Probate, and the Executive Council, where John Shea won unexpectedly.

It's worth further study: where does the straight ticket option have the greatest effect? I might guess:

  1. In the low-publicity county officer races, especially for offices that people consider non-partisan
  2. In races that feature a well-known and liked incumbent of the unpopular party, who will be hurt

The impact of Shea's election should not be underestimated. He gave Lynch a Democratic majority in the Executive Council - and thereby enabled him to replace some long-time Republican appointees when their terms expired.


Rebuttal (0.00 / 0)
Most county level offices, particularly the ones that are seen as non-partisan, should be appointed.

As for John Shea, i'm curious now whether or not he would have won without the benefit of straight tickets.

Damn it, Elwood! I gotta go check!


[ Parent ]
Wow, Was I Off.... (4.00 / 1)
You're dead on, Elwood. John Shea would have lost 6,593 votes if there were no straight ticket and he won by 1,183 votes.

I guess this leads back to why I was originally mad at you a few months ago. There are so many races to get candidates for that not only is it difficult to get any candidates to run, but even then resources are stretched thin since there are so many campaigns that need to be waged.

John Shea did zero campaigning. If he did some, he could have gotten part of that 6,593 in my opinion, but I doubt he would have gotten all of it considering that the Executive Council is a "bottom of the ticket" race and not on people's radar, even though it's far more vast than any state rep race.


[ Parent ]
It's a poster boy race (0.00 / 0)
I don't believe Peter Spaulding had alienated many people. He was considered a moderate Republican whom independents and many Dems could support. He lost because he was on the Republican ticket.

The goo-goos say that's bad and shows that people cast uninformed votes.

Others (I'm in this camp) say that it shows political sophistication: there are a lot of party-line votes in Concord, and the most moderate/liberal Republican would keep Lynch from hiring his own team.


[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree on that (0.00 / 0)
No rebuttal necessary. I never feel competent to vote for Register of Deeds etc. That's one of the reasons I suspect straight-tickets have the biggest effect there.

I haven't tried to figure out what group should appoint them, though...


[ Parent ]
List of How Many Votes John Shea Would Have Lost Without Straight Ticket By Precinct (4.00 / 1)
Only seems fitting. Positive numbers are where he would have gained votes from straight ticketing.

-----
Acworth   -56
Allenstown   -131
Alstead   -78
Andover -96
Barnstead -48
Bennington -31
Boscawen -68
Bow -140
Bradford -69
Canterbury -68
Chesterfield -165
Chichester 21
Concord Ward 1 -126
Concord Ward 10 -185
Concord Ward 2 -112
Concord Ward 3 -145
Concord Ward 4 -229
Concord Ward 5 -218
Concord Ward 6 -167
Concord Ward 7 -182
Concord Ward 8 -141
Concord Ward 9 -108
Danbury -18
Deerfield -5
Dublin -126
Epsom -74
Farmington -139
Francestown -42
Franklin Ward 1 -2
Franklin Ward 2 -32
Franklin Ward 3 -66
Gilmanton -37
Gilsum -30
Goshen -4
Greenfield -33
Hancock -211
Harrisville -141
Henniker -153
Hill   -11
Hillsborough -97
Langdon -8
Lempster 11
Loudon -39
Marlborough -169
Marlow -42
Middleton -47
Milton -94
Nelson -91
New Durham -32
New London 34
Newbury -12
Northfield 43
Northwood -90
Pembroke -139
Pittsfield 4
Rocheser Ward 6 -145
Rochester Ward 1 -181
Rochester Ward 2 -91
Rochester Ward 3 -170
Rochester Ward 4 -121
Rochester Ward 5 -147
Rollinsford -233
Roxbury -10
Salisbury -2
Somersworth Ward 1 -89
Somersworth Ward 2 -89
Somersworth Ward 3 -104
Somersworth Ward 4 -136
Somersworth Ward 5 -96
Stoddard -33
Strafford -151
Sullivan -9
Surry -38
Sutton -123
Unity -27
Walpole -153
Warner 109
Washington 0
Weare 44
Webster -20
Westmoreland -71
Wilmot -75
Windsor 2


But then we have to guess (0.00 / 0)
whether the ST voters would have checked his name off anyway.

We'll know more in November.


[ Parent ]
Not Sure, But It'll Be Interesting (0.00 / 0)
Since my walk sheets are printing a little slow today, I guess this is as good a time as any to remind anyone reading this blog to make sure to look for the Democratic column and start at the bottom!


[ Parent ]
Shea (4.00 / 3)
Shea did well in 2004, look it up.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

[ Parent ]
Son of a gun (0.00 / 0)
Spaulding 67,696; Shea 57,430.


[ Parent ]
Glass Half Full/Half Empty (4.00 / 2)
Alex,

He may have lost by around 10,000, but he got around 17,000 more votes in 2004 than he did in 2006.

Presidential candidates have a bigger impact than straight ticketing did.  


[ Parent ]
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