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R2K (NH): Obama 50 - McCain 43

by: Dean Barker

Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 20:06:18 PM EDT


The Concord Monitor released the latest Research 2000 statewide poll today, showing Obama broadening his lead to 50-43 among likely voters.  That's up from the last showing of  48-44.  Here's the part that has me really encouraged:
Among those expressing a preference for president, 92 percent said their choice was a firm one, up from 87 percent a month ago. Obama, in particular, seems to have closed the deal with a few more voters: In September, 19 percent of Obama voters said they could still change their mind. In the new poll, that number was 10 percent.
The numbers are hardening as we reach the finish line, and truly undecided voters are becoming more and more scarce.

If you believe, as I do, Dante's projected 2008 PVI for NH at D+2 or +3, that means that Obama is overperforming by a full three to four points.  Now that's the kind of cushion I would want going into election day - especially as concerns the down-ticket races, regardless of the absence of straight-ticket voting. Can we vote yet?

Here is the sample data: note that the party affiliation percentages are quite accurate:

Total sample size: 600, 10/17-19, (MoE +/- 4.0)

Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 187 (31%)
Republicans 178 (30%)
Independents/Other 235 (39%)
District 1 300 interviews
District 2 300 interviews
"Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county."

That's a really well-done sample, imho.

Tomorrow we should see the Senate and Congressional races, though I would caution in the latter that, with only 300 sampled apiece for CDs 1 and 2 (presumably), the MoE will be accordingly higher.

Dean Barker :: R2K (NH): Obama 50 - McCain 43
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Oh, if the election cold be held tomorrow.... (0.00 / 0)
But it is not being held tomorrow.  However, here in New Hampshire, people can start voting, if they qulify for voting absentee.  Please keep in mind that the statute has been amended to provide that if work demands will keep you from voting on election day, or if you are sick or disabled or will be out of town, you can vote absentee.  Talk to your friends and colleagues about whether they can vote absentee. Again, if your work schedule is such on election day that you can't plan on spending an hour waiting to vote, then consider an absentee ballot.  

Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 


My son called me yesterday (0.00 / 0)
from Europe (where he is employed by the military in a civilian role) to ask the old man for advice on the downticket info on the NH candidates for his ballot. It is his 3rd Presidential election, but the first time I was ever consulted about the rest of the ticket! I was quite pleased, needless to say.

For the record, he was in the Obama camp long before I was.  

Republicans believe government is bad - then they get into office and prove it.


[ Parent ]
Polls are polls, but still lots to do. (4.00 / 1)
Managed to attend a local GOTV organizing session in Peterborough tonight, more than 75 people showed up, quite an amazing number for this area on a Monday night.

It was fun to see these energetic 20-somethings managing a crowd of mostly um, "mature" persons such as myself; a goodly number of seasoned politicos from way back wearing bemused smiles in the face of such youthful enthusiasm, especially when they were enlightening us as to the nasty nature of the Republican campaign as if was something brand-new in the world!

Many of us were thinking of the original "plumbers", for sure.

It ain't over yet, by a long shot!

Republicans believe government is bad - then they get into office and prove it.



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