Happy morning news to put some spring into your step. The following down-ticket numbers from the same Concord Monitor poll released yesterday showing Obama leading McCain 50-43:
Jeanne Shaheen: 50%
John Sununu: 43%
Carol Shea-Porter: 48%
Jeb Bradley: 43%
Paul Hodes: 49%
Jennifer Horn: 43% 35% (see chart in link)
John Lynch: 60%
Joe Kenney: 34%
Favorability-Unfavorability:
Obama: 55-33
McCain: 45-44
First, while the sample demographics are fantastic (vide the POTUS diary), it's important to remember for the House races that the margin of error is 6% due to the smaller sample sizes for the districts polled (presumably 300 each).
That said, and while these numbers make me want to do a happy dance, some things stand out when compared to the previous R2K:
* Shaheen has flatlined at 50, while Sununu inched up 2 points. Could be statistical noise, or it could be the relentless assault of misleading, negative TV ads against her. This is the downside of having a nominee with tremendous name recognition from significant earlier office (the advantages of the same name rec have been patent for some time now). Still, it must be emphasized, Shaheen's position fourteen days away from voting is an incredibly enviable one for any challenger to be in against an incumbent.
* Horn is doing much better than she should. She's not going to win this, but it might be time for Hodes to stay less above the fray and go directly after Jennifer S. Horn-Palin's radical right-wing agenda and utter lack of qualifications.
* Carol Shea-Porter has picked up a full four points in since the last poll. Huzzah! Momentum is on her side, as is the electorate remembering what a dishonest boor Bush League Bradley is.
* Lynch will win by landslide proportions. As for Kenney's 34%, it is a truism of politics that you can always find 1 out of 3 people to join your cause (though Bush's recent approvals are really testing that theorem). This is the GOP coming home to a candidate whose name they are just learning now.
* Those favorability ratings for Obama and McCain are really shocking - though they shouldn't be, given how McCain has conducted his reckless, dishonorable campaign. Where did the Maverick who won the Granite State's heart in 2000 go?
Some key quotes from the Obama-McCain poll. As we predicted over and over again on BH, Palin is a huge drag on the indy vote:
Retired housewife Lois Alenson of Concord, walking through Eagle Square downtown yesterday, said she used to like McCain. "Well, so far as Republicans go, I thought he was okay. I liked him. I've changed my opinion now," said Alenson, a 76-year-old Democrat who said she will vote for Obama. "I couldn't today say I would trust his judgment."
Alenson said she finds it "horrifying" to think of McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, being a "heartbeat away" from the presidency. "They say people like this Palin because they say she's just like me," Alenson said. "I wouldn't want anybody just like me running the government."
Alenson isn't alone. Asked in the Monitor poll whether Palin's selection made them more or less likely to vote for McCain, 18 percent said they were more likely and 31 percent said they were less likely. Among independents, 13 percent said they were more likely and 37 percent said they were less likely.
And the cherry on top: voters by double-digit margins in New Hampshire find Obama "more honest and trustworthy and that he had a better understanding of the nation's problems."
So take a deep breath, and smile. BUT: this is no time to get complacent. Press these advantages any way you can for the next two weeks. Donate, do visibility, canvass, phonebank, write LTEs, talk to your undecided friends. It's crunch time.
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