Hard to Know Where to Start

Plus there's the view she attributes to Republican men: (0.00 / 0)

they don't like Palin because she is "hijacking McCain's message" for the far right.

There is a whole lot to dislike about Sarah Palin as a candidate. My guess is that her arrogant stupidity, her lies, and her personal greed trump other concerns.

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 05:22:44 AM CDT

Deconstructing just one line: (0.00 / 0)

Four out of five Democrats in New Hampshire have lined up behind Obama, regardless of gender.

This apparently is Donahue's interpretation of the poll she commissioned, which reported:

Among Democrats, 80% say the will vote for Obama, 9% for McCain, and 10% are Undecided / won't answer.

The poll also says that Obama leads among men 44%-43%, and among women 55%-32%. But they do not provide a crosstab of Democrats by sex! Ahah!! So, perhaps Democratic preferences are "regardless of gender", and the 11 point spread between women and men is actually a 20 point spread exclusive to Republicans and Independents!

Of course, there's absolutely no data to suggest that. But perhaps Jennifer Donahue's intuition tells her it is so.

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 05:52:43 AM CDT

She was interviewed by WMUR (0.00 / 0)

and it was played at the 11 PM news last night and twice this morning.

Jennifer claims with great earnestness that McCain should not be counted out in NH.


Doing my best to elect NH Democrats since 1968 and getting better at it every year!

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by: Ray Buckley @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 06:27:27 AM CDT

Huh? (4.00 / 1)

When I first read this, I thought it was Jennifer Horn who wrote it, because it is such a weird theory.  

Are there NH Republican women who are excited by Palin?  Sure - after being treated like second class citizens by the NHGOP for decades, youi can't blame them.  But the notion that their husbands are bumming over Palin flies in the face of all the polling data nationally that shows that men approve of Palin more than women.  


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 06:30:11 AM CDT

When I read things like this, it just makes me think I should give less credibility to such descriptions of other states. (4.00 / 2)

I don't buy any theory that says Sarah Palin is anything less than a massive drag on McCain in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire's stimulus: a train to Boston.
Visit NHBTI.org to learn about the NH Capitol Corridor project.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 06:58:41 AM CDT

Salon.com's (4.00 / 2)

Walter Shapiro has an article that disagrees with Donohue's premise. Not specifically, but in fact:

After being resurrected twice in New Hampshire primaries, John McCain finally appears to be running out of Granite State miracles. Fergus Cullen, the state GOP chairman, was trying to put the best possible face on a bleak political landscape here, when he said over lunch on Thursday, "McCain's doing his job keeping it competitive here in New Hampshire." It is telling when "competitive" is the most upbeat adjective that a party chairman can muster.

The article goes on to describe a Sprinter tv ad trying to link Shaheen with Bush, and how ridiculous that is.

This is not a state apt to be won with Sarah Palin (a 39 percent favorable rating in the Globe poll) and scare tactics about Bill Ayers. Instead, this is the state at the beginning and the end of the road for the GOP nominee. John McCain's presidential dreams were born in the snows of New Hampshire in 2000 and almost certainly perished amid the autumn folliage eight years later.

(bold mine)

How did Jennifer Donohue get to be an expert when her analysis is so off? Is she an academic or a tool?

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by: Jennifer Daler @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 07:31:40 AM CDT

That ad linking Shaheen to Bush (0.00 / 0)

It quotes her from 2002 on the Iraq War, for example.

I understand the logic of running this ad if Shaheen-Sununu were the only race on the ballot. "Sununu may be too much of a Bush toadie for your taste, but Shaheen supported him too!" It might help Sununu by simply depressing turnout. It can't help him otherwise: if supporting Bush is a negative, it hurts him more than her.

But (and don't tell the Sununu campaign this) there are other races on the ballot. Voters will turn out for Obama, and then they will cast a ballot for Senator. Depressing the turnout may work - it takes real effort to get to the polls. But depressing the incremental step of filling in one more oval??

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 07:46:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ticket splitting (0.00 / 0)

"Those famously independent New Hampshire voters" may balk at the equivalent of a straight Democratic ticket vote. That is Sununu's best card to play, and he's playing it.

He tried to be the change candidate, but it wasn't working, so he switched to the contrarian approach.

I still think he figured McCain would pull him along more than McCain has been able to.

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by: JimC @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:12:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

But this isn't a ticket-splitter appeal (0.00 / 0)

The ticket-splitter appeal would be to claim that Shaheen is too wedded to Pelosi, Reid, and Obama - not that she is too friendly to Bush.

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by: elwood @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:19:56 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, in a normal year (0.00 / 0)

But this year, that would be more noise. Tying Shaheen to Bush, that gets noticed.

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by: JimC @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:28:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ms. Donahue (0.00 / 0)

should climb down from the ivory tower of academia more often and have conversations with real people.

I don't believe for a minute that it's women who are heavily supporting Sarah Palin.  The strongest support for her comes from men who describe her in ways that make smart women uncomfortable, as they seem to be coming from behind a closed bathroom door. Starbusts all over the screen, and everywhere else.

Ms. Palin is a member in good standing of the Christian Taliban. That doesn't play well in NH, and someone who is all that Ms. Donahue is supposed to be, should be aware of that.

I remember hearing Donahue on NHPR in 2006, and wondering how she could be so wrong about everything and have her job. Still wondering.  

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by: susanthe @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:16:08 AM CDT

What candy can I eat? (0.00 / 0)

I had to give up skittles. Now Starbursts?

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:21:19 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

M and Ms (4.00 / 1)

Great on-the-run election food. (I guess Soapblox eschews ampersands.)

Hershey's Kisses too.

This is not the week for restraint. Eat at will.

But sleep too.

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by: JimC @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:31:24 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

3 Musketeers (4.00 / 3)

All for one, one for all!

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:24:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

They have access to polling data in "the ivory tower of academia" (0.00 / 0)

New Hampshire's stimulus: a train to Boston.
Visit NHBTI.org to learn about the NH Capitol Corridor project.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 11:41:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What is Donahue's background? (0.00 / 0)

I've asked people this question before, but I never get an answer.

What is Jennifer Donahue's background? Who did she work for before St. A's?

Her perspective always seems to represent what I'd call "Judd Gregg Republicanism".

America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand. -Harry Truman

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by: Peter Sullivan @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:25:48 AM CDT

Here's a bio (0.00 / 0)

Linky.

Outside of journalism, she was a press secretary to Sen Hank Brown (R-CO).

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by: elwood @ Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 10:53:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thank you, Elwood (0.00 / 0)

She never discloses her Republican background when she's busy spinning on television or in the fishwraps.

America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand. -Harry Truman

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by: Peter Sullivan @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 10:41:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nobody does. (0.00 / 0)

On NPR national news, for example, they never say Mara Liasson works for Fox or the American Enterprise Institute. Juan Williams also works for both NPR and Fox, albeit, as their "liberal".

That's just two off the top of my head.

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by: Jennifer Daler @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 11:27:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Excuse me-- (0.00 / 0)

maybe they have said it in Williams' case.

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by: Jennifer Daler @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 11:28:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Disclosure burden is on Fox (0.00 / 0)

Mara Liasson is an NPR reporter. Juan Williams is a bigger name and arguably more of a freelancer, but still essentially NPR first.

The NYT used to probihit its columnists from going on television. It was sort of a silly rule, but I liked it. Like the New Yorker, where the ad staff once rode separate elevators from the editorial staff. I assume that's gone by the boards as well.

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by: JimC @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:31:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nor does Chris Matthews (4.00 / 1)

advertise that he used to work for Tip O'Neill.

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by: elwood @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:38:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And Russert worked for Moynihan (0.00 / 0)

We could do this all day. And why not? It would be fun.

Wait a second ... are we saying the press is full of DEMOCRATS?!?!?!?!

Don't anybody tell McCain, he'll raise a stink and be a big bummer about it.

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by: JimC @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 12:48:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]