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NH-Primary: So We're not Racists After All

by: Dean Barker

Mon Mar 30, 2009 at 19:25:57 PM EDT


Remember when all the polls were wrong on the eve of the NH-Primary?  

(I was so snookered by them that I voted for Edwards (my man Dodd having just dropped out) thinking that Obama would win and carry the nomination quickly, and that Edwards surviving for a couple more states would help pull health care and a few other things in the debate to the left for Obama.)

And remember how we were accused of all sorts of whackadoodle-ism, from vote fraud to - my least favorite - charges of racism along the lines of the Bradley effect?

Well, a report (warning: truly massive .pdf) came out today from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), pointing to an aggregate of small factors that helped create the worst polling fiasco in many years.

But it's a point from Pollster's Mark Blumenthal's summary of the report I want to highlight, since the racist NH Dems storyline has been sticking in my craw since two Januarys ago:

The report also produces evidence that rules out a number of prominent theories, among them the so-called "Bradley Effect." The authors claim they saw "no evidence that white respondents over-represented their support for Obama," and thus, no evidence of "latent racism" benefiting Clinton. Fair enough, but they do report evidence of a "social desirability effect" that led respondents to report "significantly greater" support for Obama "when when the interviewer is black than when he or she is white" (although Obama still led by smaller margins among when interviewers were white -- see pp 55-59 of the pdf report).
Dean Barker :: NH-Primary: So We're not Racists After All
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Interesting (0.00 / 0)
Thanks Dean. I never bought the racism theory. It smacked too much of sour grapes from a lot of surprised people.

I'm just glad we got rid of all those racists (4.00 / 3)
between January and November, when Obama outpolled our white, local Senate and Congressional winners.

Heh. (4.00 / 1)
I guess they didn't move to mostly white Maine or Vermont either, where BO cleaned up in their primaries.

[ Parent ]
Somehow I totally missed that (0.00 / 0)
I didn't even realize that polling had shown Obama winning by a large margin here.  I'd always thought that the defeat had to do with the whole abortion email thing.

That's a shallow analysis n/t (0.00 / 0)


"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
Still... (0.00 / 0)
It's just a blog posting, but it is a blog posting by a Washington Post correspondent.  Whether or not it's a shallow analysis to say this had to do with the outcome of the Primary, I found it pretty interesting to read of those events occurring, which I'd previously been unaware of (before coming across that page half a year ago or so).

[ Parent ]
Alec MacGillis is a great reporter... (0.00 / 0)
...but he isn't much of a journalist. I can't ever remember reading anything he wrote that wasn't completely filtered his own opinion.

Bresler for Emperor

[ Parent ]
maybe you missed this article Kathy...the abortion hit piece was outrageous and betty lasky's comments were the pits-politics is not an excuse to play dirty..How do we raise our standards? (0.00 / 0)
Gone From the Granite State, But Tactics Not Forgotten  
(an edited version of the original piece in the Wash Post dated: Jan 12, 2008

By Alec MacGillis
The presidential campaign has moved on from New Hampshire, but it has left behind it deep fissures and feelings of resentment among local Democrats that some fear may linger all the way until November.

Some supporters of Barack Obama, stung by his narrow loss to Hillary Clinton, are lashing out at a large group of Democratic women leaders in the state who signed a letter criticizing Obama's commitment to abortion rights, a letter that went out by e-mail to many New Hampshire voters two days before the primary....
Obama supporter Bill Siroty, a former Democratic chair for the town of Amherst, said the ill will is running so high that it could keep Democrats in the state who supported Obama from rallying behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, should she win the nomination....
"People are very upset about it," said Siroty. "I've heard one or two threaten they're not going to vote for Clinton at all. Tensions are very high, and it could cause a rift."

Bette Lasky, the assistant House majority leader and a top Clinton supporter who was involved in both the e-mail and poll interventions, said she was sorry to hear about the bad feelings but hoped Obama supporters would get over it. "It's politics, and it happens," she said.

The e-mail questioning Obama's commitment to abortion rights was signed by a who's who of the state's Democratic establishment, which is dominated by women who supported Clinton in the primary. In addition to Lasky, the two dozen on the list included Terie Norelli, the speaker of the state House, Beverly Hollingworth, a member of the state's Executive Council and a former state senator, House Majority Leader Mary Jane Wallner, former state party chairwoman Kathy Sullivan, and Katie Wheeler, a former state senator from Durham who helped lead the charge for Gore against Bradley's health care plan in 2000. Echoing an attack in a mailing put out by the Clinton campaign that arrived in New Hampshire mailboxes the Saturday before balloting, the e-mail criticized Obama for voting "present," instead of yes or no, on several abortion-related bills while in the Illinois Senate.

...An Illinois Planned Parenthood official backed Obama up on this score over the summer, in response to an earlier round of questions about his record, and Obama has a 100 percent rating with both Planned Parenthood and NARAL Pro-Choice America....

Obama supporter Carol Moore, a former state representative from Concord, said the attacks on Obama's record seemed to resonate. Many of the three-dozen canvassers she was helping oversee reported receiving questions on their house visits on Monday about Obama's commitment to abortion rights. On Tuesday, Clinton won by three percentage points, after being down about 10 points in most polls the day before, thanks in large part to a late surge in support from women voters. ....


[ Parent ]
It was also not a big deal (4.00 / 4)
Certainly not important enough to make the difference between Clinton and Obama in the statewide primary, let alone ward 9 Nashua. The Obama campaign struck me as very committed, even relentless, but Clinton was simply better organized in Nashua and generally had the support of the city's most experienced political operators, where Obama used local volunteers and under the supervision of outside managers.

[ Parent ]
The linger (4.00 / 1)
The scorched earth is, now, green and blooming. If you scuff the turf with your foot, you'll find the ash that feeds the bloom.

Best to leave it alone, below the surface.

www.KusterforCongress.com  


[ Parent ]
Political Pudding (4.00 / 1)
I saw the article when it ran. As I said, it was a shallow analysis.  What I found really outrageous in it was the comment by Bill Siroty claiming that supporters of Bill Bradley voted for Nader in 2000; I think Bill Bradley would be pretty upset to think that someone is blaming his supporters for George W. Bush becoming president!

Both the Obama and the Clinton campaigns ran tough campaigns; once it was over, and Senator Obama won the nomination, the Clinton supporters were among his strongest supporters in New Hampshire - including Bette Lasky. That shows our standards are pretty high, doesn't it? Or, as they say, the proof is in the pudding, and the New Hampshire pudding was pretty tasty last November!  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately it is true (4.00 / 1)


[ Parent ]
So you are saying.... (0.00 / 0)
The Clinton supporters acted better than the Bradley ones?  Thanks!!!  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
Times were different then (4.00 / 2)
I'm not trying to defend their votes, but Bush was viewed as fairly benign in 2000 - he had a bipartisan record, etc.

I don't know of anyone who did not support either Kerry or Obama in the 2004 or 2008 primaries who did not support them in the general election. Times were different in 2000.



[ Parent ]
Such casual acceptance... (0.00 / 0)
of the weight of the past eight years' disasterous policies on the people of the world.

To me, it would be an unbearable burden.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.


[ Parent ]
Let's not argue (4.00 / 1)
Just as there is little constructive about trying to turn 2008's tasty pudding into a bitter chowder, there isn't much point in reliving the whys and wherefores of 2000.  Let's all move on to something more constructive.

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

[ Parent ]
His support for Obama certainly seeped through (0.00 / 0)


Bresler for Emperor

[ Parent ]
Bah! (0.00 / 0)
I didn't need all those folks to tell me that Obama has a history of playing it safe with controversial votes. Look at his stand-down on FISA. It is a great campaign strategy but the truth is he doesn't have a history of making a stand on these types of issues.

Clinton got the late deciders and had the support of more of the NH powers that be. End of story.

Bresler for Emperor


[ Parent ]
There were some out of state insiders... (4.00 / 1)
who were absolutely convinced of the racist meme who were vigorously advising that NH not be targeted by the Obama campaign in the general election. Thankfully the truth won out.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

Proving Once Again... (0.00 / 0)
As the beloved Iowan Meredith Wilson declared in the opening number of The Music Man, "You gotta know the territory!"

[ Parent ]
Yo! TWiB, yo. Check it. (4.00 / 1)


www.KusterforCongress.com  

I love that man (0.00 / 0)
I'd drop a twenty in front of him.

[ Parent ]
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