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Nine Comments: Obama's Iraq Policy Speech Today

by: elwood

Wed Sep 12, 2007 at 21:34:53 PM EDT


This format is intended to present partially-formed thoughts to provoke discussion. The number 9 is arbitrary; IIRC I chose it for reasons relating to John Lennon. (Turn me on, dead man). The idea is, throw out these short observations to provoke discussion.

Senator Obama gave a major speech today calling for immediately beginning an American withdrawal from Iraq. The full text is here. My thoughts below the fold.

elwood :: Nine Comments: Obama's Iraq Policy Speech Today
  1. There are a lot of good, solid policy pronouncements here.  The description of current policy is clear and unequivocal: e.g., "The bar for success is so low it is almost buried in the sand."
  2. This is helpful and timely in directly confronting the parts of General Petraeus' testimony that are either misleading or likely to be misstated by the media, e.g. the significance of any reduced violence in Anbar.
  3. The speech describes a policy that Obama believes the President should undertake today. In one respect this is extremely valuable to voters: he is telling us what President Obama, somehow in office in September 2007, would do about Iraq. This is the opposite of the Monday morning quarterback: he is saying "Right now, in the middle of the third quarter, we need to switch from a running game to more passing." (I used to hate sports analogies and though I am increasingly drawn to them, I'm no good at them.)

    Kathy Sullivan asks what we mean when we speak of a "change candidate." I think it's a fuzzy meta thing about changing the ways campaigns and governance are run. Obama is perhaps bringing the notion of the "shadow Cabinet" into American politics here, saying "This is what WE would do at this moment, please think about that at election time."

  4. In another respect the speech is unsatisfying. George W. Bush will not eagerly take Senator Obama's advice; any discussion of what a competent President of good will would do today is depressingly hypothetical.
  5. Nonetheless, the speech helps shift the public discussion on Iraq. It puts some markers in the ground: the surge is not working, the military cannot continue to bear this load, etc. All this is old hat to us in the blogs; he is bringing it into wider circulation.
  6. To wrap up this point, the next phase of the Obama/Iraq discussion is: just what can he and will he do as 1/100th of the Senate. Will he try to build a unified front of Democratic leaders, including his Presidential rivals, for a "no timetable, no funding" stand? Will he demand that any funding be handed out grudgingly and slowly, requiring new votes and vetoes every 30 to 60 days? (I don't cite those as "best ideas.")

    What he would do in his next job is important in our evaluation. What he does in his current one is perhaps less important, but at least it is measurable.

  7. The speech is very eloquent - in a way that cheers me in terms not only of his strengths as a candidate, but also of his thoughtfulness and willingness to challenge conventional wisdom. I'm looking for candidates to show that they will not be hobbled by their perceived weaknesses. I want to see Obama demonstrate that he won't embrace the Beltway because of his supposed inexperience; I want to see Clinton show that she won't embrace militarism because of the supposed softness of women.
  8. There is an interesting note in the speech about war crimes: We should lead in forming a commission at the U.N. to monitor and hold accountable perpetrators of war crimes within Iraq.  It isn't clear to me whether this is focused on forward-going crimes - that is, is he firing a shot across the bow of the militias - or whether it also means he would support UN / Hague investigation of, for example, Abu Ghraib. I haven't asked the campaign to get specific, I'll bet others do.
  9. I'm still unaffiliated. This speech made me more favorable toward and comfortable with Senator Obama.
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Et tu, Hilary? (0.00 / 0)
Obama:

"I opposed this war from the beginning. I opposed the war in 2002. I opposed it in 2003. I opposed it in 2004. I opposed it in 2005. I opposed it in 2006"

And you John? and you Chris? etc. How much did Washington inside the beltway experience help each of you in deciding whether or not to authorize Bush's madness?

The position Bush et al have left us in is fraught with peril. We need someone who has consistently shown good judgment and not made politically expedient choices on when to commit the lives of our soldiers.

This is one of the reasons I support Obama.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  


At the risk of derailing my own diary (0.00 / 0)
The now-common view of the Clintons as "Beltway insiders" is painfully ironic.

Bill Clinton came in an as an outsider -- from Arkansas, of all the hick places -- and the Beltway pundits never let him or us forget it. Not quite so bad as with Jimmy Carter, but the same dynamic.

He connected with a broad majority of America and the Beltway continues to deny it, as Atrios is fond of pointing out.


[ Parent ]
Good points (0.00 / 0)
I agree that Sen. Obama's speech was very forthright and well aimed.  I've been on his campaign for about six months as a volunteer (almost since the beginning) and he has basically been saying the same thing throughout that time.  He doesn't make the sweeping statements about getting all troops out in less than a year.  I don't know how we could do such a thing.  I can't remember any major war we'd fought for more than a year, in recent times, when we were able to pull all troops out within a few months. 

Sen. Obama, I'm happy to say, is not the candidate who will promise eveything and the moon in his plans.  His healthcare plan for instance is not a sweeping universal, single-payer system that's touted more by the more left leaning branch of the party, though they do have some good points and basically started the whole discussion about healthcare.  His plan includes more patient choice and puts more emphasis on insurance companies to lower prices.  Also, when considering our need for a new energy policy, he went directly to Detroit auto makers and told them that if they didn't start building more fuel-efficient cars, they were doomed to be put out by the Japanese manufacturers.  Sen. Obama understands the need for business and labor to work together, in assuring our economy can be one that thrives in our riches but doesn't sell out our workers to the lowest bidder.

As to the comments about the Clintons not being insiders, I think that was certainly true back in the 80s and early 90s, but after 8 years in the WH, a president generally represents the establishment of the party, for better or worse.  The same was true of Ronald Reagan.  Before he was elected the Washington Repubs. didn't want anything to do with him and tried to get G.H.W.B as their nominee.  After Reagan won and served 8 years, every damn Republican presidential candidate since then wants to say they'll be the next Reagan. 

In the case of the Clintons, Hillary is obviously the establishment candidate.  You just have to look at her endorsements and the funding of her campaign.  Establishment candidates generally have the biggest problem coming out and saying bold things before the less established figures of the party do.  This is what really put Kerry in a bind in '04: he wanted to be able to satisfy the anti-war progresives, while still not trying to appear weak on terrorism or making sure we put in their ass or something like that. 

It's the great irony that the candidates who are the greatest truth tellers and ball busters of the party (either one for that matter, take Ron Paul for example) are often not taken seriously by the MSM and are generally passed over come election time.  That's not always the case though.  Hey, just look at what we did in NH in 2006!

PEACE,

Northwoods


[ Parent ]
Reverse psychology (0.00 / 0)
I think your perception that people often bend over backwards to "prove" they're not what they've been falsely accused of is right on point.  Hillary acting "tough" is an example. 
But both Obama and Clinton seem to be under the impression that they can make other people see them as they want to be seen by telling us how we're supposed to perceive them.
Republican politicians generally employ another strategy.  They talk about other people and how they're to be perceived, thereby creating the impression that 1) they're attentive to other people, rather than selfish or self-centered, and 2) by implication, that they're not like those other people they've just trashed.  Talking about other people also has the advantage that they can't really be accurate about what other people think or have accomplished, so, if they're wrong, it's just an honest mistake.

Democrats, on the other hand, by failing to address even the failings of Republican politicians create the impression in Republican minds that they're self-centered, inattentive, and challenging someone (a Republican) of whose achievements and record they obviously approve.  If Bush/Cheney have done wrong, they have to be hauled up short and corrected.

The expectations for Republicans and Democrats are different.  Get over it. 


[ Parent ]
Making mistakes. (0.00 / 0)
I think people become Republicans because they've learned that making mistakes is a really bad thing.  If there's only one rule--to be obedient--and one follows that, the chance of making a mistake is greatly reduced.
This attitude affects how Republicans view their leaders.  Leaders make choices for them and, as expected, those choices lead to mistakes, which the followers are ever so glad that they didn't make.  So, they forgive the mistakes  and even honor the leaders' efforts.  It looks like they're rewarding failure.
People who identify themselves as Democrats are not only doers, but they have no fear of making mistakes and are, therefor, more flexible in changing direction.  But, if the public castigates them for that virtue, then there's a chance that Democrats, too, will become inhibited by their mistakes and get stuck in the quagmire that, in the current instance, their mistaken support for a liar helped create.
If people want to blame Democrats, let them.  I just hope it won't affect their ability to change direction going forward.
BTW, if my assessment of Republicans is accurate, they don't much care who makes decisions, as long as they don't have to do it themselves. But, we shouldn't expect them to respond to Democratic success with the same adulation they accord Republican failure. Because, if they did, Democrats just might expect them to make choices and that's the last thing they want to do.
"Just say no to choice"  That's the Republican motto.

[ Parent ]
Whole thing-- (4.00 / 1)
having finally read the whole long speech, I just want to say

1) a recitation of the history of a mistake doesn't contribute to its correction

2) there is no war in Iraq; there is an occupation (and maybe a cock fight)

3) one or two brigades a month is not a specific

4) U.S. health care related expenditures are currently over two trillion a year.  Aside from the fact that each dollar is used for many purposes during a year, the suggestion that the half a trillion dollars spent on the Iraq misadventure over four years could have made a significant difference in the health care sector is misleading and certainly should not be interpreted as a promise that when the bases are dismantled and the troops are redeployed our failing health care system will be salvaged.


You must be pissed... (0.00 / 0)
... that the straw you keep grasping at, keeps getting shorter and shorter...and shorter..............and shorter.

SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.

[ Parent ]
Cross posted from NH Ex-pat (0.00 / 0)
On Memorial Day..
  ...Brian Hardy, who now is one of Barack's Vet NH Steering Committee members, advised the campaign to tone down Barack's pointed comments towards Sununu and Gregg. Barack through out the spring was hammering the President and Congress to END THE WAR!

Brian, as a Vietnam Vet and active politically, knew that Memorial Day was different with respect to Politics. Barack listened attentively to Brian's wisdom, effectively that "on Memorial Day, respect and remembrance come FIRST. The fight against the war, the calls for petitions and for protests needed to soften, if not pause, at least for the day."
Barack graciously heeded Brain's words and ALL of the full day's agenda, planned ahead by dedicated staff, took pause and duly noted the sanctity of Memorial Day.

Below is Mike Negron's blog from NH MyBO. (Note: Mike is staff, but he does link to BH via Jerid Kurtz. Also, At the time, Brain Hardy was not committed to Barack's campaign. Brian told me recently that Barack's genuine concern for vets and his willingness to deeply consider the views presented to him, while on "the move", help convince Brian that Barack was the right choice for him)
The Obama Family Roadtrip: Memorial Day in the North Country

By Michael Negron, NH Obama Staff - May 29th, 2007 at 5:40 pm EDT 
Tags: Barack Obama, dartmouth, memorial day, new hampshire, veterans
---------------------------------------------------------

Barack, Michelle and their daughters toured the gorgeous North Country this weekend, making several stops and sharing a wonderful Memorial Day weekend with Granite State families.

Town Hall in the Valley
The Obamas' RV entered the Mount Washington valley on Sunday afternoon for its first stop: a Town Hall meeting at Kennett High School in Conway. Barack entered to a loud standing ovation and the temperature rose in old-school gym as he fired up the crowd under state championship banners telling of past Kennett High glory.  Barack called for mandatory mental health screening for service members during the meeting before taking questions.
Barack mingled with voters after the town hall, giving New Hampshire's seasoned primary-goers a chance to shake his hand and speak face-to-face.

Ice Cream in Berlin
After a spirited town hall session, the Obamas bid goodbye to the snowcaps of Mount Washington and steered the RV to an event long-awaited by Sasha and Malia: the Berlin ice cream social. 
Families were already clustered around the white gazebo, decked out in red, white and blue bunting, on this classically New England town green when the Obamas arrived. Barack and Michelle greeted voters at Veterans' Memorial Park while Sasha and Malia headed straight for the ice cream bins.
The couple greeted their hosts, clasping hands and signing books.
Michele introduced Barack, admitting that he inspired her to hope for a new politics as well.  Barack opened with remarks on the debt we owe to our brave veterans.  He followed by taking questions from the crowd for a half-hour before helping himself, finally, to some ice cream.

Memorial Day Ceremony
Before arriving at the senior center, Barack joined VFW Post 816 Commander-elect, Brian Hardy and other area veterans in laying a wreath at the Littleton war monument.  Barack and his veteran hosts then crossed a bridge over the Ammonoosuc River to join area voters for a town hall meeting.
 

Littleton Town Hall
Following the Memorial Day ceremony, over 250 people jammed the Central Room of the Littleton Senior Center early on Memorial Day morning. Voters stood on tip-toes in the open doorway, straining to catch a glimpse of Barack.
Barack spoke at length about his concept of America as global leader, finding much agreement in a crowd that seemed eager for a new face to present to the world. 

Dartmouth Rally
A mixed-age crowd of nearly six thousand greeted Barack in Hanover at the Rockefeller Center courtyard at Dartmouth College. Families turned out in full force, parents and children sitting in the grass listening to a Dartmouth student a cappella group before he arrived.  Barack entered the stage to the refrain of Aretha Franklin's Think blaring on the event speakers. 
With students watching from the windows of a dorm bordering the courtyard, Barack thrilled the huge crowd with a rousing call for a new kind of politics.  After ending his speech, Barack shook a few hands before departing.
Jerid Kurtz, the leader of the Buckeye State Blog, is in New Hampshire for the summer reporting on the presidential primaries. He was at Dartmouth yesterday and posted his thoughts here. (here is Blue Hampshire!)
Thanks to Tim Llewellyn for the amazing photos-you can see more of his shots from the Obamas' RV tour through the North Country on Flickr. Thanks to Coral Shaw for the Berlin photo of the entire family.


-----------------------------------------------------------
It must be noted that Barack's commitment to ENDING THIS WAR did not start at the Patraeus Hearings. It did not start when the spotlight found him after the 1st Quarter financial disclosure. It started back in 2002, but the campaign trail has blogged along since April of 2007, as far as I can tell.

For the Undecideds that have picked up the crumb trails, scattered strategically by the "front runner" or the other "Agents of Change"; please take some to to follow the swath of sweat that Barack, his wife, his staff and his volunteer army of GRASSROOTS SUPPORTERS have laid down over 2007.

The PROOF is in the BLOGS:
America to Bush: Sign This Bill

By Sam Graham-Felsen - Apr 27th, 2007 at 4:57 pm EDT 
Tags: Grassroots, Iraq

(What is this?) Today, Barack sent out an email asking you to make your voice heard and demand that Bush sign the recently-passed bill which would bring our troops home.

Your response has been tremendous. Already, nearly ten thousand of you have sent messages to friends explaining how easy it could be to end this war. People from all over the country are posting fliers in their communities and creating personal messages imploring Bush to bring home our troops.

One Signature Away

By Sam Graham-Felsen - Apr 27th, 2007 at 1:27 pm EDT
Barack just sent out this email:
A piece of paper will soon be placed on George Bush's desk in the Oval Office.
By picking up a pen and signing his name to it, he could end the war in Iraq.
The House and Senate united and passed a bill that would provide for our troops now and begin a redeployment from Iraq to bring them home.
We're just one signature away from ending the tragic mistake that has cut short thousands of American lives, cost tens of billions of dollars, and destroyed America's global moral leadership. But only if the president signs the bill.
I opposed this war from the beginning, and I would sign the bill to end it in a heartbeat.
If you would too, please take a moment to tell someone just how simple it would be to end this war:
Link of the politics, all of the spin, all of the rhetoric means very little today.
The overwhelming majority of Americans want this war to end. The president must follow them.

America is one signature away.
Barack Obama

Bush Vetoes, But the Movement for Change Continues...


By Sam Graham-Felsen - May 1st, 2007 at 5:35 pm EDT
Today President Bush refused to sign a bill that would have ended the war in Iraq and brought our troops back home. Here is Barack's response:
With one stroke of his pen, President Bush has stubbornly ignored the will of the American people, the majority of Congress and, most disturbingly, the realities on the ground in Iraq. Now we call upon our Republican colleagues in Congress to help override this veto and acknowledge what the President will not - that there is no military solution to a political conflict that lies at the heart of this civil war. Only the Iraqi leadership can make peace, and the best way to pressure them to do so is still a phased withdrawal of American forces with the goal of removing all combat troops from Iraq by March 30th, 2008.  It is time to end this war so we can bring our troops home and redeploy our forces to help fight the broader struggle against terrorism and other threats of this new century.

Rallying the Nation: 16 Votes Away

By Sam Graham-Felsen - May 16th, 2007 at 11:25 am EDT

Because we are only 16 votes away from a veto-proof majority to end the war, it is imperative that we pressure our Senators and representatives to side with the American people instead of President Bush.

Barack has been traveling around the country and encouraging all Americans to find out where their elected leaders stand. Make sure to check out the video. Latest stop: St. Louis, Missouri.

Just 16 Votes

By Sam Graham-Felsen - May 15th, 2007 at 11:39 am EDT
The President has stubbornly ignored the will of the American people and he shows no signs of relenting. But his word isn't the last.
David Plouffe sent out this email today. Read it and then do your part to end this war.
--------------------------------------------------------
Dear Sam,

Barack has been traveling across the country asking people to speak out and let their Senators know that it's time to end the Iraq war.
One Republican colleague has already called this unsenatorial. But this isn't about Washington etiquette, it's about bringing our troops home.
This isn't a game. We need just 16 additional votes to override the president's veto and bring to a close this sad chapter in American history.
It's going to take some convincing, but Senators need to hear from people in their states that they can join us to bring a responsible end to the war.
That's where you come in. In your state, an incumbent Senator who voted against ending the war will face a re-election battle in 2008. They will have to make clear very soon whether they will continue to block efforts to bring the troops home.
Will you speak out now and add your voice to the growing public pressure to end the war?
Link
With one signature, George Bush could have ended this war. Instead, he vetoed the legislation, ignoring the reality on the ground in Iraq yet again.
But that will not be the last word if the American people have anything to say about it. In the Senate, we need just 16 additional votes to override the veto and end the Iraq war.
This isn't the time to trust the president to do the right thing. It's time to end this war, and across the country people need to speak out and let their Senators know.
No one of us can do it alone, and it's not going to happen tomorrow. But a movement to create the kind of change we need starts with you.

Thank you,
David
David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

If you want to slog along the sweat soaked blogs, then roll up your sleeves and get to work. The link below will kick you all the way back to the end of the National Blog.

Should you care, please note that Obama's Admin does not WHITE WASH the blog comments. Exceptionally offensive comments are deleted, but I dare say that those comments had definitely crossed the line and most Admin's on most blog's would have put them down.

The link takes you back to Page 67.
Welcome to the new BarackObama.com!
By Joe Rospars - Feb 8th, 2007 at 11:25 pm EST

This blog has accumulated 151 Comments!

http://my.barackobam...

SGS is Jack Mitchell of Lowell, MA. The symbolism of the "sleeping giant" is based on my HOPE for America.



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