Possible GOP Candidates for 2008

Have we ever had (4.00 / 2)

an agency head run against the Goveror s/he supposedly served before? That would be the situation for both Ayotte and Stephen, and it would really highlight the point I was making in my earlier diary about the Fragmented Executive here. I think it would look churlish to most voters.

It's interesting that both Ayotte and Stephen owe their positions to much-reviled Craig Benson. Voters would be reminded of that. I think the association has doomed them both; I doubt either would win a primary. I don't know whether their names surface because there is still a Benson cadre in the state GOP, or simply because the party has nothing else.

Clegg and Morse face the same problem we lament on our side: running and holding office in a legislative district gives you almost no advantage in running state or district-wide. No one but political junkies knows your name.

The 2nd vs. 1st point is interesting. Possible factors at work:

* Bradley may seem more likely to run in 2008 than Charlie
* The GOP may be tired of Charlie and ready to challenge him even if they expect him to run, and eager to forestall a run
* The 1st District GOP may still be paralyzed with shock

---

by: elwood @ Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 06:22:59 AM CST

Couple thoughts (0.00 / 0)

I'd second Elwood's thought that Bradley is not considered as fiished as Bass -- so people may be waiting for more signs on what Bradley is going to do.

On Ayotte, I think one thing that has to happen is she has to go on record one way or another on the robocalls. I know she's been letting Bud Fitch handle that, but at some point she has to go on record. No matter which side she takes it will be dangerous to her -- and if we can make it seem like she is going light on her Republican buddies, I think that would kill a lot of Dem crossover.

But like Elwood says, a Gov run for her would really be impossible. Lynch burnished his bipartisan cred by letting her live, and alienated some Dems with that -- WE know that he just didn't want an EC fight, but it would look the height of ingratitude to run against Lynch. Plus, she really couldn't do that while actively employed as AG I would think.

Chuck Morse was the guy from Salem whose name I was trying to remember. People seem to think he is the guy -- or rather, insiders do. But the best defense against that is really for Hodes to get his name out there over the next year, so that it's Hodes vs. Chuck who? We can help with that here by covering the stuff Paul accomplishes in his first term.

---

by: Mike Caulfield @ Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 08:33:27 AM CST

Of the named candidates (0.00 / 0)

I think Keough is strongest. He ran a statewide primary against Benson and Humphrey four years ago; the party might rally around him as if the whole Benson episode was just a bad dream.

It will be very interesting to see the jockeyoing within the party: not only among candidates but among hopeful kingmakers. Will the tattered 'Concord Gang' try to reclaim primacy? Will there be a battle for leadership among the most conservative elements?

---

by: elwood @ Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 09:11:22 AM CST

Name rec (0.00 / 0)

I'm interested in Matt's observation that voters may actually see the old names as tired -- that maybe they might reject Keough because "we're through with all those people". There seems to be almost a certain bipartisan relief at killing the Bradley and Bass dynasties, sort of the first year college freedom of finally breaking up with your hometown girlfriend.

The two Dem names that are interesting are Dayton Duncan and the yogurt guy, because there is a recognition of the brand name (Stonyfield, Florentine) but the individual is not associated with an older guard -- you've never seen their name on a road sign.

Of course, maybe that was the same algorithm that gave us Benson...

---

by: Mike Caulfield @ Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 10:33:24 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Well, to defend the GOP for just a moment (0.00 / 0)

Benson got the nomination only because it was a three-way race: Keough, Humphrey, and Benson. IIRC, he got some 37% of the primary vote.

---

by: elwood @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 07:38:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Good fact to know (0.00 / 0)

I was unaware his primary number was that small.

But it was still that outsider with a success in another area thing that edged him in there, right? The lure of a person that has "done things" outside of government?

---

by: Mike Caulfield @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:23:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

A little of that (4.00 / 1)

A lot of, he had a fortune to spend on his campaign.

Benson was the 'good cop' at Cabletron, but Beelzebub would have been a good cop next to Levine.

---

by: elwood @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:27:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

BTW - Firefox 2 (0.00 / 0)

I got Firefox 2.0 which catches typos as I type. I hope to become a much more readable commenter in the coming days.

I highly recommend the upgrade.

---

by: Mike Caulfield @ Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 10:35:14 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Clegg and Morse in the 2nd (0.00 / 0)

I wouldn't be scared of either of those candidates. I see NH-02 as being a fairly safe Dem district for a long time.

Carol Shea-Porter is the one who needs to worry. Keough or Ayotte would be attractive candidates (are they in the 1st?) and if John McCain is at the top of the ballot, watch out......

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:15:43 PM CST

Debunking McCain (0.00 / 0)

One hope is that if we get some really attractive candidates on our side for the Pres. primary, it will lure the moderates onto our primary ballot, and McCain will lose the Repub nomination.

I think the loss of Warner may have hurt us in this respect.

But I agree, if McCain made it to Novemeber, it would be bad.

---

by: Mike Caulfield @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:39:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

McCain is a weak nominee (4.00 / 1)

IMHO.

He would be the oldest nominee ever, I believe -- older than Reagan in 1980.

He has already sucked up to the religious right, big time. And he is completely tied to Bush's Iraq policy -- he's the guy who wants to send MORE troops.

I am more concerned about Hagel or Huckabee. Neither is tied to Bush.

---

by: elwood @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:46:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

McCain (0.00 / 0)

Most voters don't follow politics close enough, and still think of McCain as some honorable maverick. I think he could carry New Hampshire in 2008 if he's the general election candidate.

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:49:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think NH would choke on Huckabee (0.00 / 0)

I mean, a) he came up here and nobody even noticed. And b) I saw him on C-SPAN and he clearly crosses into that cultural conservative area. You feel icky listening to the guy.

I agree with Scoonie below that people still have good feelings about McCain, they forget too easily.

On the other hand, when they actually see how old he is, and are reminded of his detour through Bushville via TV ads, maybe he ends up very weak.

The "More Troops" thing is a hedge bet. In two years, he can always talk about what might have been if only the Dems fillowed his advice. It pisses me off though, because he knows we don't have any more troops, he's just saying this as a nice hedge, thinking if there is chaos in Iraq due to withdrawal in 2008 he can wash his hands of it.

The dream weak candidate is Guiliani. If the Repubs nominated him, it would be all over for them.

---

by: Mike Caulfield @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:59:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree that (0.00 / 0)

Huckabee might have trouble in NH -- as GWB did.

Losing the NH primary may soon be touted as a badge of honor on the Republican side: Goldwater, GWB...

---

by: elwood @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 13:02:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

elwood (0.00 / 0)

A socially conservative Republican is not going to win in New Hampshire-that means Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney, Frist, Brownback. Huckabee would get crushed here.

But we should be very weary of a John McCain or Rudy Guiliani (though the chances of Guiliani winning the Repub primary are slim and none).

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 16:31:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree with Elwood about the age thing. (4.00 / 2)

I think that's not yet on most people's radar - even very politically aware people often don't know until I mention it that he'd be older than Reagan was - but that it could be an issue.

Wouldn't be the only one, but I think it's one that hasn't yet been as widely considered as many of the others.

---

by: Laura Clawson @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 16:09:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ayotte and Keough are both in 2nd n/t (0.00 / 0)

---

by: elwood @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:41:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ayotte (4.00 / 1)

Ayotte has a good political future, NH Dems really need to watch out for her.

Keough is a wingnut, but he hides it fairly well. There was a lot of talk of him challenging Lynch in 2006, but he knew he couldn't win so he held off.

---

by: Scoonie @ Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 12:48:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]