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To wit:
April 2006
Bass 42%
Hodes 35%
July 2006
Bradley 58%
Shea-Porter 24%
Bass 53%
Hodes 25%
September 2006
Bradley 52%
Shea-Porter 33%
Bass 46%
Hodes 36%
In the second district at least, that poll was swinging all over the place through 2006. In particular, the April poll echoed Hodes campaign internal polling. Then, suddenly, three months later, Bass had gained 11 points and Hodes had lost 10. What could have explained that?
DavidNYC looked into it at Swing State Project and found some serious sample hinkiness. The first number is the July sample, with the April sample in parentheses. Check out the variation:
Democrat: 23% (25%)
Republican: 32% (22%)
Independent: 38% (43%)
Unregistered: 7% (10%)
I think that just about explains things: The current sample has 10% more Republicans than the prior poll. While I'm aware that party ID among independents tends to shift with the political winds, there's been nothing to suggest that even so much as a gentle zephyr has been blowing in the GOP's direction in New Hampshire over the last twelve weeks. What's more, if Bush's favorability shows an increase comparable to Bass's, that would make him more popular in blue New Hampshire than in the nation as a whole - and more popular than he's been in the state since January.
Andy Smith wants us to believe that in summer 2006, suddenly there were a lot more Republicans in New Hampshire than just 3 months earlier. Yeah, nice try.
So today's results look good for Shaheen, good for Hodes, and not terrific for Shea-Porter. But even without Shea-Porter's history of defying expectations and outperforming polling, I'm not going to sweat it too much, because I know their history. Similarly, it would be pointless to get too excited over good results, because in 3 months for all I know we'll see the Green party mushroom in the state.
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