New Senate Poll Coming Out

by: Kathy Sullivan 2

Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 10:17:21 AM EDT

( - promoted by Dean Barker)

There has already been a couple of diaries posted about how the sample size of the UNH Survey Center poll skewed Republican, and that it is likely that McCain's number is artificially inflated as a result. Consequently, we should expect the poll numbers for the US Senate and congressional races to show the same sort of skewing. It won't surprise me if it shows the senate race to be a statistical dead heat, because of the undersampling of Democratic voters.

The sample size in this polls was:

24% D
41% U
31% R

For a net +7 GOP registration. By way of comparison, in April his poll had a -1 GOP reg advantage, in July it had a +1 GOP reg advantage.
Today it has a +7 GOP reg advantage. The April poll, with the -1 GOP registration, had McCain up by 6 points, so I am guessing that if the poll had accurately sampled Democrats, the numbers would look different.

In any event, we are going to hear a lot of hooey about the poll numbers in the senate race and the congresional races, as well, so before we do, everyone take a deep breath, remember that we have six weeks to go, and we all need to work harder!!

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