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She doesn't have an electoral base of her own; nobody outside the EC has cast a vote for her, period. So she'll be relying on that Republican ground game that was basically invisible for the last four years in New Hampshire - plus she has to keep waiting on any fundraising activities, etc, until Johnny Sununu makes up his mind on whether he wants to try, because she's going to be entirely dependent on Papa Sununu's fundraising and ground support. So she gets off to a late start from a low base.
She's got multiple examples of being vehemently anti-choice and anti-gay, including the major embarrassment of the California amicus on-and-off brief. There goes the pro-choice contingent and the marriage equality contingent - and the people who might not be in either of those camps but aren't happy with the idea of someone who's not tolerant of them.
She's apparently against the Castle Doctrine, the "A man's home is his castle" self-defense-in-your-own-home doctrine, or at least has made statements against it (according to what I'm seeing from state libertarians). This could be enough to make sure she doesn't get the Libertarian endorsement, meaning the Libertarian candidate picks up a couple of percent that would otherwise be hers.
She's not a particularly good speaker (watch her speaking to the legislature about the effort earlier this year to repeal the death penalty). She certainly doesn't have the fundie credentials to whip up that segment of the right wing either, other than her anti-choice stance.
In what may come down to be a major factor among pragmatic voters in NH, no matter what happens in this election cycle, even if she won she'd be a powerless member of a small minority, unable to use her position to New Hampshire's benefit. She could try bringing in Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins to campaign for her, but that's a double-edged sword for her; those two turn off the hard-right base she needs behind her.
She also just recently got reappointed for a four-year term as AG. If she leaves that position now to make a quixotic run for the Senate, she looks ungrateful - and the legislature and governor can demand she resign the AG's office while she's running and let someone dedicated do it instead. It also doesn't look like a particularly good electoral cycle for the Republicans once again. If she runs for the Senate now and flames out, she could (like Jennifer Horn) destroy any further political ambitions for a decade or more based on the memory of a crushing defeat. If she stays in the AG's office, she can quietly build name recognition and wait for a better cycle to run.
She's married, but didn't take her husband's last name. For most people on this site, that's not a problem at all. For a chunk of the remaining Republican base in this state, it is. She'll have to work extra-hard to buff her fundie credentials with that against her.
She hasn't got a record of accomplishment she can point to. Paul Hodes can point to his tenure in Congress and say "See all the great things I accomplished? Just imagine how much more I can do alongside Jeanne Shaheen in the Senate!" Ayotte can say "I took a case to the Supreme Court that I knew would fail, and I didn't screw up the daily workings of the AG's office."
I'm sure there are plenty more reasons why Kelly I-Ought (to stay out of this one) would be in trouble if she runs. Feel free to add more in the comments!
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