BINGO: Kathy Sullivan's Description Of New Hampshire Politics 2008

by: Rep. Jim Splaine

Sun Nov 09, 2008 at 10:55:13 AM EST

Bingo.  It's not about colors, it's not about ideology, it's not about party majority (yet), it's not about coattails, it's that Democrats are holding together, and we're picking up lots of Democrat-leaning Independents.  You see it by looking toward the bottom of the ballot, where Republicans did pick up some Legislative seats in some parts of the state, and held on to a core of lower-level county positions.

Nashua Telegraph Political Reporter Kevin Landrigan also hit the nail on the head, I think, when he observed that Democrats gained from the momentum of a long election season.  He explained that the excitement of volunteers for Democrats was high, and we can see that in the tremendous enthusiasm by supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama leading up to the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary on January 8th.  That WAS a long season.  In a very real way, Barack Obama and his supporters can thank Hillary Clinton and her supporters for his success.  We were all in this together.

Going into 2010, we might not have a year and more of enthusiasm and excitement among volunteers.  We're hoping for some great things by Barack Obama, but still I think we have to be concerned with what I call the "pendulum of politics."  People often vote for "change," but change is a two-way street -- wait a moment and it happens.  Sometimes if you like chicken but you have chicken several times for a week, you'd prefer pizza for your next meal.  

Even a victory of 55% to 45%, while it sounds good, isn't secure nor permanent in the world of politics.  That margin of victory means that 55 voters of every 100 voted for the winner, while 45 voters of every 100 voted for the lower.  If just 6 out of every 100 voters who supported the victor changes his or her mind, the result is different.  Sometimes we change our mind as to what we'll have for dinner at a restaurant the moment we sit down and look at the menu.

In other words, we can't assume that New Hampshire Democrats are in a permanent majority position -- far from it.  If we want to see continued majorities in the NH House and Senate in 2010, and Democratic Party dominance in other statewide elections, I think Democrats have to act like Democrats these next two years statewide and nationally and do what voters expect us to do.

The dialogue of the next several months and the good part of the next two years will be for us to define what "Democrats acting like Democrats" means.  I think nationally it means having some real health care, being sure we're essentially out of Iraq, addressing poverty in ways we haven't begun, and having an economy on the rebound.  Statewide, it's solving educational inequalities, getting that dropout rate way down, and opening the dialogue about fairer taxation to fund education -- not passing a new tax, but being brave enough to talk about our options, and how to lower property taxes.  

By the way, am I the only one who has wondered why Kathy Sullivan hasn't run for a political office yet, and that it's about time she does?  

The Sununu Myth gets a Shine From Landrigan

by: elwood

Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 09:03:59 AM EDT

You can spin all you want, but there's no good financial news this week for Shaheen...

Landrigan notes Sununu's cash-on-hand advantage, and downplays his failure to campaign much as a proven, winning strategy:

Like he's done in every single campaign, Sununu has chosen to carefully raise money and even more cautiously spend it, waiting until he's convinced the voters are engaged before the money starts flying out the door.

Now, let's remember 2002. Sununu challenged Bob Smith in a high-profile GOP primary. So he was campaigning hard, full time, all summer long. His close victory over Shaheen followed a long, intense campaign -  exactly the opposite of what Landrigan describes.

What about his earlier campaigns? The legendary John E. Sununu squeaked past Joe Keefe in 1996 with 47% of the vote. In 1998 he easily won against an unknown. In 2000, he used that same "sit on your cash" strategy against Martha Fuller Clark and transformed a 25 point September lead into a 10 point November win.

Since he is now not 25 points ahead but 14 points behind, a campaign strategy that has resulted in steadily leaking support may not be the most obvious approach.

(Standard disclaimer: The races will tighten up; Democrats need to work hard.)

Kevin Landrigan Serves a Whopper, No Bacon

by: elwood

Sun Jun 29, 2008 at 07:30:09 AM EDT

New Hampshire Republican Sen. Judd Gregg has a well-earned reputation for bringing home the bacon.

That's what makes his vocal opposition to a threatened cut in federal highway money all the more noteworthy.

The Tax Foundation regularly tallies up the income tax money each state sends to Washington and the federal spending sent back to that state. Under Judd Gregg - who was Chair, and is now Ranking Republican, on the Budget Committee - New Hampshire has fallen to 48th place. We get back 67 cents for every dollar we send in. (pdf)

It's really a remarkable achievement to become such a leading "donor state" (I don't like that Republican frame, but payback must be served). The 49th and 50th states are Connecticut and New Jersey. To fall into 48th place with two loyal Senate servants of the Bush agenda, one leading the Budget Committee, is indeed remarkable.

But it sure isn't "bringing home the bacon."

Name Dropper Update

by: elwood

Sun May 11, 2008 at 18:29:06 PM EDT

Updated June 01 2008.

The Name-Dropper Project

by: elwood

Sun Apr 27, 2008 at 08:02:45 AM EDT

For a few weeks now I've been providing a simple media watchdog report:

New Hampshire has two weekly statewide political print columnists, John DiStaso of the Union Leader and Kevin Landrigan of the Nashua Telegraph.  Each week, how many different Republicans and Democrats do they mention in their columns?

I'm going to institutionalize this - we will update it every week with the counts for the new columns. I won't post it as a new diary, instead I'll simply add new comments or add to the body of this diary. We'll thereby develop an archive over time.

I say "we" because I am inviting other Blue Hamsters to join in this mechanical drudge work exciting exercise in media accountability.  If you would like to contribute, please add a comment in this thread volunteering to do the count for an upcoming column.

Here are the logistical rules:

One in Four Conservatives Agree: Sununu Must Go

by: Dean Barker

Sun Oct 07, 2007 at 19:25:17 PM EDT

I don't believe that for a moment.  I think it's far likelier that Sununu is unpopular because Granite Staters are sick and tired of this fraudulent war, and sick and tired of paying through the nose for health insurance, or going without.  And sick and tired of a senator who won't budge on those issues until silly season time.

But more to the point: Landrigan goes further and highlights an aspect of the poll that should really be broadcast far and wide:

25 percent of conservatives and 17 percent of Republicans were unfavorable toward Sununu

You know what? 

I think those numbers are high enough for a credible primary challenge.

Landrigan Hinting that Lynch Always Wanted Buckley Out?

by: Dean Barker

Sun Jan 14, 2007 at 15:35:14 PM EST

The question mark in the headline is not rhetorical.  This is the strangest Landrigan column I've ever read, both for the mystery and the apparent editorializing.  He more than hints that Lynch was itching (or planning?) to get rid of Buckley (emphases mine):

...Buckley's accuser, Manchester Republican Rep. Steve Vaillancourt, is a sworn Buckley enemy.

Lynch should have factored that in - not in dealing with the Vaillancourt letter regarding the allegations, but in sending the message to Buckley that he had to withdraw as candidate for chairman.

...Out of character, Lynch did not consult with many people, but informed only the top presiding officers of the Legislature - Senate President Sylvia Larsen, D-Concord, and House Speaker Terie Norelli, D-Portsmouth.

...Now, Democratic critics are putting the pieces together, and it makes them seethe even more.

That's why, for example, at Lynch's inaugural address, Craig was in the front row of dignitaries to watch the speech.

Buckley? He was exiled to the balcony of Representatives Hall.

The transition already was under way, but it wasn't until 30 hours later that Buckley would rock New Hampshire's political world with his stunning withdrawal.

Of course no one is mentioning the letter that Mike featured right here about the committee assignments, though some ink is spilled in that general direction.

"The transition already was under way?"  If anyone can fill us in here, I for one would be grateful.  I haven't always been kind to Lynch, since I am definitely to the left of him, so I don't want to make mountains out of molehills.  But this is odd.  Of course, Buckley was endorsed by everyone under the sun prior to the scandal, so perhaps this is just smoke?

Our Quickly Splitting State

by: Mike Caulfield

Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 21:22:18 PM EST

Despite New Hampshire's relative wealth - sixth highest in the country in per capita income - the number of families with serious financial problems are growing.

They concluded one in 10 New Hampshire children, or 28,000, are living in poverty that the federal government defines as a family of three that earns no more than $16,090 a year.

And lest you think this is all stories about broken economies and lost jobs in places like the North Country, think again.

Click on there's more for the rest....

Landrigan: Dem leaders devoutly wish for status quo

by: elwood

Sun Dec 31, 2006 at 11:27:22 AM EST