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Sarah Palin and the Diminishment of the NH Primary

by: Dean Barker

Sun May 30, 2010 at 07:40:36 AM EDT
Why hasn't Sarah Palin endorsed Karen Testerman yet, with whom she has more in anti-choice common than the other Republican gubernatorial candidates?

Why hasn't Sarah Palin endorsed anyone in New Hampshire yet?  We are certainly not lacking for GOPers who would love to be embraced by her stamp of approval.

Sarah Palin has endorsed the gubernatorial candidacy of Nikki I Catogrically Deny Having an Affair with That Blogger Haley.

In South Carolina, a key presidential primary state.  This strategy is at least as old as Jack Kennedy and Bernie Boutin.

Even if the latest poll hadn't made it crystal clear, Todd or whoever it is coordinating her future run has calculated that, like George W. Bush before her, her chances for viability hinge on the type of Republican who dominates South Carolina, not the Granite State.

Between that reality, and the fact that the national GOP establishment has bet the electoral farm on campaigning against a health care reform law that looks a whole lot like RomneyCare, I suspect that our primary will matter very little in the grand presidential elephant parade of 2012.

Adding: I would love for Facebook Governor Palin to prove me wrong, however.  Whatever benefit a NH candidate would get from her in the primary would convert into a twofold negative in the general.
Dean Barker :: Sarah Palin and the Diminishment of the NH Primary
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Sarah Palin and the Diminishment of the NH Primary | 6 comments
Our 2012 Primary Won't Be Diminished By Palin Failin, Or Not (4.00 / 2)
Dean -- Many a former potential Presidential Donkey and Presidential Elephant have found that not putting their all into the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary is the fastest way to being demoted to also-ran status and returned to the field or jungle to graze.

And good or bad for Palin's future here or elsewhere, polls mean absolutely Zero at this point. Where was someone named Barack in the polls taken 19 months before our 2008 Primary?  Or John McCain?  Or for that matter, someone named Jimmy Carter in, say, late 1974?  Ronald Reagan in 1978?  Bill Clinton in 1990?

As almost always, our Primary will be pivotal and meaningful, if not decisive --  on both sides for various reasons.  And as always, our Primary will be surprising and unpredictable, with the results perhaps unexpected for some reason or another.

I'm with Jim, but a couple of things: (4.00 / 2)
1. Is this not all an issue of timing?  New Hampshire's primary in 2010 isn't until September.  South Carolina's is June 8 (so are the contests in Iowa and Nevada).  Say what you will about Palin, but she is going to try and make endorsements so that they will have the biggest impact possible.  

...and that means waiting until closer to the primary.  Now, that said, Palin hasn't made any big endorsements in Iowa or Nevada either.  The governor won't skip Iowa.  Nevada maybe, but not Iowa.

2. On the New Hampshire primary in particular:
It will matter, as Jim said, just as much as it always has.  Jim's right that it is much too early to project anything that might happen in 2012. As it is now, New Hampshire is Romney's to lose (if you believe the polling that has been done).  That sets an expectation and a narrative.  New Hampshire then becomes a matter of the extent to which Romney meets that expectation.  Other candidates will still come to New Hampshire. They won't cede the Granite state to Romney.

Very good - (0.00 / 0)
adding to that:

1. I don't know the field in South Carolina. But here Palin faces a Senate race in which EVERY Republican candidate is dancing to her tune. Why alienate part of her own base by choosing among her followers?

2. Among the other races, she might want to endorse Horn over Bass. But, that (IMO) means backing a loser, and Bass is making tea party noises anyhow.

3. Presidential primary polls mean less than nothing here, this early. I can't see Romney winning here: his best shot was 2008.

[ Parent ]
Deniability (4.00 / 1)
If I were advising Sarah Palin on a possible run for the Presidency--and absolutely would not be, but if I were--I would advise her to spend few resources in New Hampshire so that when she loses miserably to someone like but not necessarily Mitt Romney, she can say she never invested her resources here anyway.

In 2008, just five days after an upset victory in Iowa, Governor Huckabee got only 11% of the NH Primary vote.  I've never been so proud of New Hampshire's Republicans.

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin

Remember when Giuliani got trounced here (0.00 / 0)
and then blamed it on prioritizing other states more, and then a detailed analysis of visits showed he had invested a lot here?

Too funny.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
Remember how it all came down to Florida in the end? (0.00 / 0)
(me neither)

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin
[ Parent ]
Sarah Palin and the Diminishment of the NH Primary | 6 comments

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