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UNH: Carol Shea-Porter Beating ALL Rivals

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 18:00:55 PM EDT
(Bumped, because you know it drives the UL crazy. - promoted by Dean Barker)

It's UNH, but I'll take it.  Our Carol is showing significant gains, and currently beating every credible challenger. She's ahead of Guinta by 5, ahead of Ashooh by 8, ahead of Mahoney by 9, and ahead of Bestani by 11.

But of course, the pollster can't help himself from punditry:

It's a dramatic change from April, when the poll showed Shea-Porter trailing every major Republican candidate.

"Carol Shea-Porter seems to have benefited from staying out of the limelight for the last several months," said Andy Smith of the UNH Survey Center.

That's completely wrong.

Carol's House work has been extremely active, and the false hit jobs run against her by her rivals and their media enablers have been non-stop in her district.  What's been out of the limelight, mostly, is her actual campaigning, which is par for the course for her at this time of year.  So I'm really looking forward to seeing what the numbers show when her campaign is in full gear.

Adding: What's so funny about the timing of this is that I literally have seven or eight different, and positive, items about CSP in my to-do box, and am so behind on them I was going to put them in a round-up tonight.  But now I'm going to let these numbers sit for a while, and post the roundup tomorrow.
Dean Barker :: UNH: Carol Shea-Porter Beating ALL Rivals
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UNH: Carol Shea-Porter Beating ALL Rivals | 19 comments
LOL (4.00 / 5)
You just have to love Carol Shea-Porter. She does her job, ignores the silliness that Republicans try to throw at her, and sails along.  

When I think about all the personal money Guinta and Mahoney have put into this race - well, I smile. Go CSP!!

BTW - this is supposed to be the more Republican of the two districts?  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

It's good for the economy. It keeps the money circulating. n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Don't believe what you like and disbelieve what you don't like. (0.00 / 0)
Polling is part of the Republican strategy to "prepare the field" for eventual victory by depressing the opposition and energizing the base.

The whole thing is very dismissive of the electorate, which actually decides.

Given the year's Very Serious Narrative, (4.00 / 1)
The closer we get, the more voters are paying attention, the better for Dems.

--
Hope 2012

@DougLindner

Remember, Andy's never had Carol winning (4.00 / 5)
Ever.  This is as good as it gets for Carol in Andy's polls.

Still early...etc...etc.  But I have to think her integrity and authenticity drive these numbers, especially as people start to get a look at the empty shirts opposing her.

I think people trust her honest workman-like approach and don't feel they have to agree with every vote.

Smith will never let even one of his own polls (4.00 / 1)
get in the way of throwing cold water on Carol.

I don't need to tell you what a dismissive media environment CSP has to endure in her district.  That includes, imo, her own alma mater's polling shop.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
I heard Andy Smith (4.00 / 3)
on The Exchange the other day, saying that Jeb Bradley lost because he had an "R" next to his name. This is historic revisionism of epic proportions! Or, downright mendacity.

Andy Smith should be introduced with a disclaimer that warns listeners that he's a personal friend of Jeb Bradley's.  

sanctimonious purist/professional lefty

Well... (4.00 / 2)
I note this sort of thing on polls I don't like, so I have to note it on polls I do like, too. A 6% margin of error is high enough for me to not feel very much confidence in the results.  

Only the left protects anyone's rights.
Absolutely. It's way too high. (4.00 / 1)
This is the perennial problem.

With such big gains against all rivals, I can basically conclude that there is good movement in our direction, and for the first time, but not much more than that.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
Adding: (4.00 / 2)
And, like it or not (I hate it myself), the UNH poll probably has greater value as a pundit spin narrative setting device, which in and of itself is a factor in the arcs of races, than it has value as a describer of the electorate today.

So this is a useful bit of momentum for us, however fuzzy the precise temperature guage it might be.

birch, finch, beech

[ Parent ]
Jeb Bradley town hall (4.00 / 2)
I attended one of Bradley's town halls in Manchester, and I remember that he told us that he hoped we would be hearing alot about his son because he was heading to college and he was going to be concentrating on improving his golf game.  This was when Bradley was voting to send the sons and daughters of other NH citizens to war with Iraq.  So I find it hard to believe that the R next to his name was his only problem.  CSP works hard on legislation during the week to benefit people in NH, and works hard on weekends to get out and meet her constituents.  She is the real deal.
Not to defend Bradley, (0.00 / 0)
But most Americans are not in the military, and parents do not get to decide whether their children enlist. Leave his son out of it.

Respecting those who serve does not mean disrespecting those who don't.

--
Hope 2012

@DougLindner

[ Parent ]
Isn't this a little harsh? (0.00 / 0)
Read the comment more closely.  I don't actually see a critique of Jeb's son.
[ Parent ]
Implication (0.00 / 0)
Obviously everyone in the military is someone's son or daughter, and they should only be put in danger when absolutely necessary, but he talked about his son playing golf and you connected that to the war. I think that connection should not be made.

--
Hope 2012

@DougLindner

[ Parent ]
Inference, not implication. (0.00 / 0)
The comment, to me, spoke to Jeb's cavalier attitude about war while he was hiding behind the Bushes.

Hollow piety.  Relax.


"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

[ Parent ]
Oh, those wacky pundits... (4.00 / 1)
...They'll just keep on predicting CSP's demise, and keep on and keep on and keep on, in hopes that one day she will bow before the superiority of Conventional Wisdom.

C'mon, Carol. If you keep de-pantsing the Chattering Class, they might have to get real jobs someday.  

I will never forget (4.00 / 2)
my first venture, as a political novice, into Jeb Bradley's town hall meeting in Northwood.  Must have been 2003-04, I think.  He actually told us that he had to follow the party line and vote with them or NH would not get any federal goodies!  I was so shocked that he had so little initiative, courage or smarts in representing us, that when Carol came along, I was eager to jump right in with her.

Carol takes good care of NH, even if some of us don't realize it.  The bamboozlers of tax cuts and spending on their buddies running against her would be leave NH unrepresented again.

Tone-deafness (4.00 / 1)
Doug - I was not critical of Bradley's son, but rather of the father for not being aware of how elitist his comments came across.  Believe me, I understand that parents do not get to choose whether their children serve in the military, and I have no disrespect for those that don't.  
Wait until folks get (0.00 / 0)
a side by side comparison during debates.  Carol has made herself a formidable candidate and debater - mostly because she knows what she's talking about.


"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein
UNH: Carol Shea-Porter Beating ALL Rivals | 19 comments

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