NH-Sen: Could Turn-Out Decide This One?

My guess (0.00 / 0)

I suspect the radicalization of Republican Party has made the phenomenon of party-hopping independents a thing of the past.

Those few true believer voters among them who are at home with the tea party will become reliable Republican primary voters. The moderates will give up on the Grand Old Party altogether.

Negative campaigns are not designed to tip voters over to your candidate - they are designed to discourage your opponent's voters. The Republican snarling - much worse than the Kuster-Swett contest, but inconvenient for our "Dems in disarray" hacks - will result in a strongly contested but lightly attended Republican race.

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by: elwood @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 05:54:52 AM CDT

Guilty as charged. :-) (0.00 / 0)

"... suspect the radicalization of Republican Party has made the phenomenon of party-hopping independents a thing of the past. Those few true believer voters among them who are at home with the tea party will become reliable Republican primary voters. The moderates will give up on the Grand Old Party altogether."

Now, if someone can convince Dan Eaton of this....

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by: Thomas Simmons @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 06:16:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

A natural fit? (4.00 / 1)

On what day did you happen to catch his position on social issues?

On Monday, or on Tuesday?

On "Marriage equality is great" day, or on "I believe marriage should only be for one man and one woman" day?

{continue pattern, and apply to every social issue...]

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by: Thomas Simmons @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 06:13:40 AM CDT

LOL. (0.00 / 0)

Yes!  Amended:

a natural fit, until the state establishment GOPer attempts to bury him forced him to lurch to the right on all kinds of culture war things.

birch paper

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by: Dean Barker @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 06:22:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm Not A Fan Of Ovide Lamontagne (0.00 / 0)

...but I think he has a tremendous opening here.  He can hold on to a natural base and if he runs a smart campaign right after Labor Day, and I think he's run a smart campaign to this day, he could be the nominee.  He's a likable fella -- I've enjoyed him through the years too -- and he could pull it off.

He needs to make the subtle case that he's the only "unifying" Republican candidate who isn't injured, other than Jim Bender and Bender is a relative unknown with crazy ads.  Ovide can be considered "safe" for a lot of the Republicans who have been active in past years.  

Even still, all this is good for Paul Hodes who, if he works to define himself while the Republicans wrestle in mud, could walk right into the Senate in the short time between September 14th and November 2nd.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 06:43:17 AM CDT

Lamontagne (4.00 / 2)

is too far to the right for many Republicans. He's against abortion with NO exceptions. Presumably he'd force his own daughter to bear the child of her rapist - and presumably, if that fetus was a danger to her life, he'd let her die rather than abort it.

That transcends being conservative and veers off into the land of the Christian Taliban.

He's also interested in gutting Social Security.  

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by: susanthe @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 08:38:25 AM CDT

Being interested in gutting Social Security (0.00 / 0)

Do you know any Republican candidates who are NOT?

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by: elwood @ Wed Aug 25, 2010 at 20:40:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hoping... (0.00 / 0)

That Bender and Lamontagne will try to tap the Tea Party for another Republican primary bloodbath and take out Ayotte from the right, or they drag her so far to the right that Binnie is able to do just what you're suggesting might happen.

It would certainly fit the pattern we've seen this year - Democrats aren't going after their own, but the Republican primary-attending core is massively unhappy with their own party leadership, rejecting establishment pick after establishment pick. Crist, Lowden, Bennett, Murkowski, Grayson, Specter, Norton - all Republican establishment-backed picks who would in all likelihood easily won their races (well, Lowden blew up on her own, and Bennett's seat is still a foregone conclusion to Mike Lee, and maybe Specter would've been weaker as a Republican after all).

Democrats need to be hanging Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, Ken Buck, Pat Toomey, Joe Miller, Marco Rubio, and the rest of the newly-dominant Overtly Crazy Wing of the Republican Party around every other Republican this year. You could call it a delegitimization strategy, but none of the teabagger candidates has any legitimacy outside their own lunatic circle of fringe supporters - you can see it in the way they all raced as fast as possible to scrub their records of their most outrageous positions as fast as they could.

Also, media, seriously, was 'Aqua Buddha' not entertaining enough to keep discussing?

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

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by: RealNRH @ Thu Aug 26, 2010 at 03:40:31 AM CDT