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With Less Than Two Weeks Left, Kuster Pulls Ahead

by: Dean Barker

Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 14:20:33 PM EDT

Good news on two fronts for Annie Kuster.

Since July 1, she has outraised Bass, Swett, and Horn by a huge margin:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/
RAISED SINCE JULY 1:
Ann McLane Kuster (D) $222,507
Charles Bass (R) $57,190
Jennifer Horn (R) $39,036
Katrina Swett (D) $36,795

James Pindell also got his hands on an internal poll showing a commanding lead:

A poll conducted for the Ann McLane Kuster Second Congressional District campaign shows her with a sizable lead over Democratic primary rival Katrina Swett, just 11 days just remaining before the primary.
A Mellman Group poll of 400 likely Second District Democratic voters shows Kuster with 47 percent support, Swett with 24 percent, and 29 percent were undecided. The Mellman Group polled for John Kerry's campaign in the 2004 New Hampshire primary.

You have to take an internal FWIW, obviously, but it's a respected pollster, and between that and the money numbers the Kuster campaign has got to be feeling good about all the hard work they've done all along as they roll into the final two weeks of the campaign

Dean Barker :: With Less Than Two Weeks Left, Kuster Pulls Ahead

Tags: Ann McLane Kuster, NH-02, (All Tags)

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With Less Than Two Weeks Left, Kuster Pulls Ahead | 10 comments

Using an internal poll (4.00 / 3)

Without crosstabs and such, there is really no way to critique the poll data.

But, if I were to invest in a poll, versus spending that money on more staff or TV, I'd want the best data I could get.

Ya don't drop major Duckets to fabricate a story in the Friday news dump before Labor Day.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

by: Jack Mitchell @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 13:35:28 PM CDT

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Wow (4.00 / 1)

I'm not in the loop for anybody's internal polling at the moment, but I think this is the first actual head-to-head I've seen in NH-02's primary. I'll be interested to see if the Swett campaign has dueling poll numbers to release.

That said, primaries are tricky things, prone to low turnout even when races are hotly contested. I'd like to know what's happening on the Republican side, too - it would be great to see Jennifer Horn pull a Joe Miller on Charlie Bass.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

by: RealNRH @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 13:40:59 PM CDT

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Bass internal poll (4.00 / 2)

Bass leaked a poll yesterday showing him leading Horn 50%-22% with 16% undecided.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

by: William Tucker @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 14:08:40 PM CDT

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Thanks! (4.00 / 1)

About what I expected, but I was hoping Hopeless Horn might be readying a surprise. Oh well!

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

by: RealNRH @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 14:45:21 PM CDT

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Under The Hood (4.00 / 1)

Up
Ann McLane Kuster: Make what you will of internal poll numbers, but campaign finance reports don't lie. If Kuster doesn't make it to Congress it won't be because of campaign mechanics.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

by: Jack Mitchell @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 15:21:06 PM CDT

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early to bed (0.00 / 0)

early to rise
work like hell
organize

It was a creed written into the founding documents

by: JonnyBBad @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 16:03:26 PM CDT

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Not to rain on anyone's parade, but. . . (4.00 / 1)

OK, I guess I am trying to rain a little bit. This is all good news for Annie. But a few relevant points to bear in mind:

1. As Dean noted, Annie did pay the Mellman Group for this poll. And, in many cases, candidates pay for polls so that they can show momentum on their side. No shame in that, but a useful fact.

2. Mark Mellman is certainly a respected pollster, but he doesn't have a perfect record when he gets paid by candidates for polls. For example, he had Martha Coakley beating Scott Brown by 14 points a week before she lost by 5. The sample size was twice as large as in the 2nd CD poll.

3. Annie's fundraising is to be commended. But Katrina still has nearly $350k in the bank more with two weeks to go. Not that this will decide the election, but it won't hurt her ability to get her message out.

4. The Yankees are winning. So Bresler is happy regardless. Which warms my heart (sort of).

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 17:34:39 PM CDT

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Burt Bacharach sighs (0.00 / 0)

1. That word is already out there. If anything, Annie may look to temper the outlook. At least within her own crew. Maybe the poll is simply corroberating what we all suspect.

2. Mellman can stand up for himself. But, we should consider: a)Coakley/Brown was exceptionally volatile. That was the apex of teabag fury. Things are mellowing, now. b)The sample size was based on a state wide race. Plus, NH has how many voters? Admittedly, I've seen larger sample sizes used for NH-02. I'm sure they cost more.

3. No one is forgetting that Katrina came in to this race with a warchest stockpiled from previous runs.

4. Let's talk about football.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

by: Jack Mitchell @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 18:03:15 PM CDT

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Go Pats! (4.00 / 3)

Agreed on #4, sir.

by: Dartmouth Dem @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 18:14:43 PM CDT

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I'm a baseball fan, though I did enjoy the final preseason football game n/t (0.00 / 0)

It was a creed written into the founding documents

by: JonnyBBad @ Fri Sep 03, 2010 at 20:00:36 PM CDT

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With Less Than Two Weeks Left, Kuster Pulls Ahead | 10 comments

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