Forecasting the NH State House Election - Part 1

So here's my question... (4.00 / 1)

I run in Cheshire 2, which according to your table was a D+9 in 2008.  Does that calculation take into account that in 2008, only one R ran in a three-seat district?  Certainly each of the three Ds who ran would have gotten lower percentages of the vote had there been a full slate on the other side.

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

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by: Lucy Weber @ Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 16:19:05 PM UTC

Methodology (4.00 / 1)

The model doesn't look at votes cast in a district, only the results. It takes into account the fact that Democrats won 2 of 3 seats in 2004 and 3 of 3 in 2008. BTW, the model calculates each seat in a +9 district had a 84% probability of electing a Democrat during that time. That is consistent with the Cheshire-2 results (5/6 = 83%).

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 17:28:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think I've got it (0.00 / 0)

The column on percentage of votes doesn't figure into the calculation, is that it?

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

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by: Lucy Weber @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 02:22:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The percentage... (0.00 / 0)

is % of seats, not % of vote. For example, approximately 60% of the seats from D+4 districts have been won by Democrats.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 03:17:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Numbers, and then there are the other factors (0.00 / 0)

I am looking at your State House Data Sheet 1.  There is a column headed Vote.  In that column, the number after Dan Eaton's name is 84%, Tara Sad is 81% and I am 79%.  Waht does that signify?  

I took it to be an indicator that we had only one opponent, who was relatively unknown.

I asked the questions because I'm trying to understand the data, but the real point behind the questions is this:  

Races for the NH House are, more than any other race, dependent on name recognition and character than they are on political party.  When one observes recounts, many ballots have votes for Reps whose votes are, for the most part, going to cancel each other out in the House.   But platform is less important to people on this most local level than is knowing who they are voting for.

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

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by: Lucy Weber @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 12:24:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I see (4.00 / 1)

My mistake. The colunn you're referring to was an attempt to show the relative strength of the candidates. But, as you point out, it's doesn't mean much. The model doesn't use it.

I agree completely with your last point. It would be silly to think we could predict any given House race just by looking at the partisan makeup of the district. But I do think it's important to understand it.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 19:10:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So very grateful for William Tucker's analysis (4.00 / 1)

Thanks for the enormous amount of effort that you put into this.  Very few people offer any analysis whatsoever of House districts, so the information you have compiled is invaluable--so long as it does not make anyone complacent.

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

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by: Lucy Weber @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 19:21:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks, Lucy n/t (0.00 / 0)

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 21:50:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can this method be used to establish the unfairness of large multi-member districts? (4.00 / 1)

ie do the results significantly skew in heavily gerrymandered districts? If so it might be a useful tool in establishing fairness in redistricting.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 17:51:44 PM UTC

Thank you (0.00 / 0)

Interesting, as I run in Cheshire-01, which , according to PVI, SHOULD be a Dem seat, but is not.

Here I am, awaiting Part 2, instead of kocking on doors......

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by: pberch @ Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 18:14:36 PM UTC

That is the danger... (0.00 / 0)

models and just that. The only real way for us to maintain our majority is if you go door to door.

Obama/Biden '08

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by: bullfrog523 @ Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 19:14:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

actually, (0.00 / 0)

I did spend the morning at the Westmoreland Transfer Station a/k/a The Dump.  

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by: pberch @ Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 21:44:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Cheshire 1 is a case in point. (4.00 / 1)

It went D in 2004 and 2006, and then had a candidate who had way too many other distractions in 2008.

We had an easy ride in 2008 in Cheshire 2 with only one not very well-known opponent against the three of us.  This year, there are three, all well known, and they are working hard.  Tara knocked on doors today, I made phone calls.

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

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by: Lucy Weber @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 02:30:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just to be clear (0.00 / 0)

This model attempts to forecast overall results based on historical data. I don't claim that it is predictive of individual races. It doesn't take into account the unique characteristics of each race or the ground game (canvassing, phone banks, etc). I've made a couple of thousand phone calls this election cycle and I wouldn't do it if I didn't believe it makes a difference.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 03:36:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Predictability (4.00 / 1)

As I understand this:

1. The data show a strong correlation between national election results and state House district results
2. If the national results favor one party by 5 points and a particular district historically favors the other party by 3 points, that district results will tend to give the nationally-favored party a 2 point margin
3. The missing link is the jump from "local races are correlated with national results" to "local races can be predicted from national polls."
4. The apparent gaps in that link include: which national poll[s] to use; their predictive ability of what they attempt to measure; and their predictive ability of the Congressional results. (Getting from "generic ballot" numbers to individual US House race numbers isn't beanbag.)

It would be interesting to see a check of historical national poll results, rather than electoral results, as correlated to local NH races...

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by: elwood @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 01:07:36 AM UTC

Good questions (0.00 / 0)

1. Yes.

2. If I understand the question... PVI measures a district's vote against the average national vote. 2008 PVI is based on a 51.2% Democratic vote. A D+3 district had an avg 54.2% D vote. If the national vote favors the other party by 5% (47.5%-52.5%) you would expect the district to favor the Democrat by 1 point (50.5%-49.5%). But this model uses the 3.7 point swing in its calculations.

3. Agreed. Even if there is a perfect correlation with the national vote, the model is only as accurate as the your national vote projection.

4. There are a couple of obvious options. The last Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot poll has been an accurate predictor of the eventual vote in midterm elections. Or there's the Nate Silver approach of aggregating all polls and weighing by sample size and age. Given the recent fluctuation in the Gallup polls, I'm leaning toward the latter. But if you've got a better suggestion, I'm all ears.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 03:10:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]