Joanne Dowdell vs, Carol-Shea Porter: The Primary

The presence of a two-term former Congresswoman in the race (4.00 / 2)

who has not erred from working on behalf of the rest of us, has a record of legislative accomlishments, who was never an establishment candidate in the first place, and who does not take biz PAC money is a high bar for challengers.

A primary will bring excitement and media attention, which is a good thing, and sorely lacking on our side in 2010, although a bad thing in terms of spending resources needed in the general.

Other candidates have two avenues to go that I can think of.  One, the "fresh face" argument.  The other, buying into the GOP myth that Carol's record is too liberal for her district.

Those who try to play option number two but know better will be going down the wrong road.

One structural problem for CD1 is that Dems are salivating over CD2 right next door.  It is perhaps the single most opportune pickup in the entire House of Reps.  So simply getting the usual national electoral groups to pay attention to a winnable race in CD1, against a mystery money incumbent who voted to abolish Medicare, will be harder than it should be.


birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 10:06:59 AM UTC

"Raising money in a primary divides the pot" (4.00 / 1)

That isn't really true.

It would be, if every potential donor always contributed the maximum they could. But we don't. And it is presumably easier to raise funds for an actual primary race, than when there is no challenger.

So the challenge probably grows the pot significantly, before dividing it.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 10:27:10 AM UTC

Elwood (0.00 / 0)

Interesting point. I don't know if figures exist to substantiate either scenario.

But I do know that any candidate would rather not face a primary and the first complaint is " now its going to be harder to raise money"      

Maybe that's just a perception, I don't know.

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by: Chaz Proulx @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 10:40:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is good for them (4.00 / 2)

Running in a competitive primary is good for them.  As long as the candidates and their supporters retain a healthy perspective for as long as possible, it is all good. It will be one of the few primaries on the Democratic side, especially if Governor Lynch runs for a fifth term. We need some excitement.  




"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 13:05:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree (0.00 / 0)

It is hard enough in our media environment to get any attention if you are a Democrat.  This adds some reason for the press to pay attention.  (At least I hope so!  Given the gushing at WMUR over all these look-alikes that are parading through our state now - yes, Michelle Bachmann looks like Jon Huntsman, they both look rich to me - I wonder.)

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 13:45:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with your premise, Elwood. (4.00 / 2)

Lots of back story here tho with major funders not wanting to take sides in a primary.   More of that dough is now flowing to CD 2, where as Dean points out people are seeing a major p/u opportunity. And a DCCC with what I suspect is a hidden agenda. Provided the candidates reach decent fr targets, the PR from the primary could be beneficial.

I do hope CD 1 voters notice who is putting in the work of organizing resistance to FG and who is running a campaign from DC. Also Hoping that folks also see FG's abysmal numbers here and recognize it as the opportunity it is.

Fully admitting my devotion to CSP.


In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

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by: StraffordDem @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 15:09:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting ideas here (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for the input. I hope everyone is right about the media. I'm still worried about fundraising personally, but your perspectives have me thinking more optimistically.

When faced with a primary its easy to have all sorts of knee-jerk reactions --  there's nothing like second opinions to temper that.

Strafford Dem is correct too--I think there are a number of back stories and trends that don't immediately meet the eye. But that's politics as we all know here.

I hadn't thought that much about the second district race attracting first district donors either.

Again -- all very interesting  

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by: Chaz Proulx @ Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 15:45:23 PM UTC