The Primary Shuffle

Mitt will win (3.75 / 4)

But his victory will be dismissed. The second place winner will be crowned victor.

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by: JimC @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 16:18:35 PM UTC

I agree (4.00 / 2)

and I think #2 will be Bachmann, although there may be a chance of Rudy coming up on the rail in the last furlong. But, NH hasn't been much more fond of NooYawkers than Texans, IIRC.

They. Don't. Care.
We do.
Rinse, repeat.

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by: GreyMike @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 19:52:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I feel like Bachmann is peaking now (3.67 / 3)

In the end, she's just not presidential.

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by: JimC @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 20:03:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rick Perry would make life difficult for her (4.00 / 1)

Otherwise I think she has a remarkably decent shot at winning. Early schedule is favorable to her and she's more organized than people think. Her fundraising will be solid as well. Perry cuts into her evangelical base and would be a significant boon to Romney.

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by: nhdemocrat @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 20:40:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

do you really think (0.00 / 0)

all that evangelical zeal will work for her in NH?  We tend to be a little more subdued in our religious expression here.  

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by: susanthe @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 22:02:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry, given the thread I should have started with my belief that she'll lose NH (0.00 / 0)

Though Mitt's HCR might make him vulnerable if enough candidates whack him at it over a long enough time period. Even then I'd be hard-pressed to see the GOP here go for her.

More broadly, if Palin and Perry don't jump in, I can see her winning IA, SC and possibly FL. NV is a caucus state which is won by motivated supporters... The schedule would kind of play out from there. She'd be credible and, possibly, have the cash/name recognition/organization to compete on Super Tuesday. I still think Romney is the clear favorite, but Bachmann certainly shouldn't be discounted given the makeup of the GOP primary electorate.

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by: nhdemocrat @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 22:26:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

At this point in 2007, (0.00 / 0)

The conventional wisdom was Clinton v. Giuliani.

--
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Mon Jul 18, 2011 at 02:48:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mitt might win NH, but... (0.00 / 0)

Mitt might win NH: his Massachusetts connection will help him, since so many Massachusetts Republicans have moved north of the border.  But I don't see how he can win the nomination: he strikes me as just too vacuous and too hypocritical for even the Republicans.

That said, it's not easy to imagine who could beat him.  He is running at the front of a large but weak field.

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by: TimothyHorrigan @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 20:22:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do we think Mrs. Palin (0.00 / 0)

will enter the race?

It's difficult to imagine that the GOP is really interested in winning the White House. It almost seems as though they WANT the guy who wasn't born here  to kick around for 4 more years.  

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by: susanthe @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 20:40:00 PM UTC

Her fundraising is lagging (0.00 / 0)

They don't want him reelected, but I'll bet some of them assume he can't be beat and see 2012 as a chance to clear the madmen/madwomen out of the attic.

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by: JimC @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 20:47:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too early to guess (0.00 / 0)

I'll make a prediction in January - assuming the SoS doesn't schedule it for December. Remember, he doesn't like the proposed calendar because of Nevada.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Sat Jul 16, 2011 at 21:45:48 PM UTC

FWIW (4.00 / 2)

I see Bachmann in 2012.  She's a NO BRAINER.

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by: mevansnh @ Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 09:39:57 AM UTC

no brainer is right (4.00 / 1)

I heard a depressing story about a guy who told a friend, "we have an intellectual and that hasn't worked out very well, so let's try something else."

I do not understand the kind of person who wants an idiot in the White House, but apparently there are millions of them.

At least Michelle has chutzpah!

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by: susanthe @ Sun Jul 17, 2011 at 20:05:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As of today.... (0.00 / 0)

my guess is Michelle Bachmann - why? because the Republican party in NH is far more conservative than any time in recent memory. She will be coming off a win in Iowa, which will get out all those Tea Party/Free State/conservative activists, whom we are told vote disproportionally in primaries.  

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by: pberch @ Mon Jul 18, 2011 at 02:36:25 AM UTC

Hmmm... (0.00 / 0)

I think the NH primary is Mitt's to lose. Too many people too familiar with him, and I don't think anybody else currently in the race or currently likely to join the race looks like they'd really make a hard push for NH either. In the end, I think it's going to be a lower-than-usual impact for NH, with a bunch of the candidates not making any serious effort to win the state. The same in Iowa, where several of the candidates (particularly Romney) don't seem too inclined to make a big push. Romney can't whip up the crazies for Iowa where the caucuses make hard-core support vital; the others can't bring any broader base of support, which New Hampshire demands.

Much as I'd love to see a Bachmann or Palin debacle on the national stage as the Republican candidate, I think Bachmann is flaring too early and won't be able to sustain her campaign - right now she gets a fair number of disengaged Republicans who say "Oh, Bachmann, she's the conservative Congresswoman, sure" and aren't really tuned in to just how insane and stupid she is - you can pretty much see that effect in the difference between Palin's poll numbers and Bachmann's. Fewer people really know Bachmann, so she hasn't seen her negatives climb like Palin has, despite having near-identical positions.

Bachmann's best bet is that Palin and Perry both decline to run, leaving her as the consensus far-right candidate, with a small but motivated base backing her, a larger but unenthusiastic batch backing Romney, and a smattering of also-rans (Ron Paul picking up the Freak Staters, Pawlenty getting a few couldn't-stomach-Romney-but-want-someone-who-claims-to-be-moderate types, Herman Cain getting people who hope he'll give them free pizza for showing up with Cain stickers, Jimmy McMillan with the votes from people who think The Rent Is Too Damn High, and so on). She still wouldn't take NH, but she'd stand a pretty decent chance nationally if it came to that. I don't think  she can last, though. She's getting a bounce like Herman Cain got, with people taking a superficial look, then backing away when the crazy gets too obvious.

Ultimately, I think Palin and Perry won't run, though. It might be enough to give Bachmann unexpected legs as the consensus far-rightie.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

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by: RealNRH @ Mon Jul 18, 2011 at 04:50:03 AM UTC