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Due to these and other factors, CQ Politics is changing the rating of the race from Leans Democrat to No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.
Too bad the day before the article appeared, two new polls arrived with much better samples and margins of error, and showing Carol Shea-Porter with significant leads - St. A's pegging it at 42-35, and Roll Call (SUSA) at 50-41. D'oh!
And then there's this from the piece:
Though voters rejected Bradley's bid for a third term in 2006, Smith argues that the results were tied to who showed up to vote in the "off-year" election.
"If we had normal turnout in 2006, it wouldn't have even been close," Smith argued. "Bradley would have won by 10 percentage points or more."
Smith believes 2006's high Democratic turnout was driven by popular Democratic Gov. John Lynch .
I'm so sick and tired of our State Level Villagers explaining away Carol's win as if she didn't earn it on her own merits. Whether it's Jennifer Donahue excusing it away on Iraq or Smith diminishing it here, this tendency (a by-product of the shadow that the UL casts over NH political conventional wisdom, imho) shows a basic lack of curiosity (or worse) about one of the most intersting and idiosyncratic 2006 House races in all the nation. I personally feel that, two years on, I'm still only grasping with pieces of the true story behind Carol's win. And it might take me another two years to feel like I've got it.
As I see it now, Carol Shea-Porter won her race, and her primary before that, because, despite a fraction of the money, she indefatigably outworked everyone else and was on the people's side of the issues. Just as she is today. And despite the standard-issue flag-waving of Jeb Bradley, e.g., even the VFW understands that. Or perhaps in a more accurate way to put it, the VFW especially understands that.
Maybe on the morning of November 5th, the local punditocracy will finally figure out that Carol Shea-Porter rightfully earned not one but two terms representing the first district of the finest state in the Union. And it'll be about damn time they caught up with the rest of us.
