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Maybe it's just me, but I'm expecting a Granite State Poll out this week that shows fairly tight races - within the MoE, so that Smith has fall back position.
It looked like Smith was under-sampling Dems and the youth vote, but I had no idea how much until I read that 18-29 year olds voted at 26% in 2006. Smith sampled them at 8%! According to Tufts Universty, young people vote for Ds by 58 - 38, and the Hill poll had CSP winning the youth vote by 45 points.
UNH's Andy Smith, wistful over John E. Sununu's decision not to run for senate:
"He was the one guy with a lot of name recognition," Smith said. "He's just been through a race before. Well-known. Still liked. When he lost, he got swept up in a lot of the anti-Republican sentiment across the country in 2008.
I guess Carol's got some company in the bogus "fluke" narrative now.
As for Susan Collins, she must be superwoman or something, because according to the same Andy Smith, the electorates of Maine and New Hampshire are similar!
Dartmouth's got a new poll out. In it Hodes is besting both Sununu and the BassMaster, but I'm more interested in the sample:
Sample demographics
The poll sample drawn appears to be representative of the voting population in New Hampshire. Approximately half of respondents were male (49.1 percent) and half were female (50.6 percent). The poll was administered evenly across the state's congressional district: slightly more than half of respondents were in the 2nd Congressional District (56.9 percent) and slightly less than half were in the 1st Congressional District (42.9 percent). The mean and median ages of the respondents were 57.9 and 56, respectively. Respondents indicated if they were registered to vote as Democrats (27.8 percent), Republican (31.5 percent), and undeclared/independents (40.2 percent).
On Cloud Hampshire, Democrats make up only 25.63% of the electorate, Republicans dominate with 31.63% of the share, and the remaining 42.72% are Undeclared.
In New Hampshire, Democrats are actually the party in the driver's seat, with 29.44% of the people's choice, followed closely by Republicans with 29.26%. Undeclareds round it out with 41.27%
So it appears that Green Hampshire, while closer to walking on the Granite, still buries its head in the clouds.*
One interesting point is the median age. That struck me as too high, even given the traditionally poor - or in NH, strong? - showing of younger voters. But perhaps it isn't? Your thoughts welcome.
*Image stolen from Vergil (Aen. IV.177), itself lifted from Homer: "ingrediturque solo et caput inter nubila condit."
In a UNH poll conducted between 4/13 and 4/22 with about 500 sample size (in other words, likely the same operation done here and here), John E. Sununu is shown to be besting Paul Hodes 46%-41%, with 11% undecided and 2% for someone else.
That's a fascinating result for the Sununu Dynasty to chew on as they decree whether or no The Younger shall be the nominee - on Cloud Hampshire.
When you add up the 111 registered Democrats, 137 registered Republicans, and 185 registered Undeclareds who were polled on this match-up, you get a remarkable picture of this fantasy state. Let's compare it with the most recent data - November 2008 - from a real place that has elections called New Hampshire.
On Cloud Hampshire, Democrats make up only 25.63% of the electorate, Republicans dominate with 31.63% of the share, and the remaining 42.72% are Undeclared.
In New Hampshire, Democrats are actually the party in the driver's seat, with 29.44% of the people's choice, followed closely by Republicans with 29.26%. Undeclareds round it out with 41.27%
In Cloud-Cuckoo-Land, the Sprinter has a chance. Here on earth, with 2% less Republicans and almost 4% more Democrats, it's harder to say.
Also on Cloud Hampshire, young voters (ages 18-34) are picking Hodes over Sununu by 9 points (47%-38%) - wow! What a pity that in the clouds, people aged 18-34 only make up 9.75% of the voting electorate. Now I know that young people are the hardest to get to the polls, but sheesh, Cloud Hampshire, you have a serious civics problem there. Especially since in a real place called the United States of America, exit polls show that 52% of voters aged 18-29 turned out for the election. I'm guessing that translates into something a little higher than 9.75%. And in fact, a little bird tells me, voters age 18-29 made up 17% of the electorate in NH-Sen for 2008. I wonder what 18-34 would be?
But here's the thing. The poll was done by Andy Smith during the same round on other issues released a little earlier (and conducted from 13 April to 22 April). Mo's poll also has an almost identical sample number of 491 voters.
While lacking internals to look at, it is nonetheless reasonable to assume based on the sample size and date conducted that the marriage equality poll is likely higher than even the 55% majority represented.
Andy Smith and the Survey Center at UNH have a new poll out today asking about voter opinion on current 'hot button' issues: medical marijuana, seat belts, gender discrimination.
But with Smith's polls, it's always a good idea to start with the sample.
They surveyed 501 voters (using the breakdown for the question on parental notification). Of that group, 122 were Democrats and 145 were Republicans - the rest Undeclared.
I'm not sure what community this poll reflects. Not New Hampshire 2008, where Democrats outnumber Republicans. Perhaps Ohio? Perhaps New Hampshire of 2002?
If I knew just what this particular sample was supposed to represent, the results might be worth looking at.
Obligatory seat belt use in cars is a societal norm in the United States of America. At some time in the future a tipping point will be reached where it will seem freakish to a majority of Granite Staters that we are behind that curve.
Well, is two-thirds a tipping point? Those are the numbers Andy Smith is citing (FWIW) in a new poll:
This month's poll showed that 64 percent of New Hampshire adults support a mandatory seatbelt law. Democrats, women and folks who are relatively new to the state are most likely to back such a new law; Republicans, men, folks under 29, families that make less than $30,000 and the unmarried are most likely to oppose, according to an analysis by the Survey Center's Andy Smith and Tracy Fowler.
The same poll (which surveyed 619 New Hampshire adults) found that 68 percent of adults say they always buckle up (6 percent never do). Of the fickle bucklers, 64 percent said they would wear it more if they were legally required to.
"A run against Judd Gregg in 2010 will be difficult for any Democrat. Gregg is popular and has a more favorable rating than John Sununu did," Smith argued. "Second reason, and probably the most important reason, is that 2010 is likely to be a good Republican year. Historically the off year elections favor the party that is out of power."
Really? Well, let's look it up. But where to look? Ah yes, Smith's own UNH poll (emphasis elwood):
New Hampshire does NOT love him. For crying out loud, even his fans would not describe him as lovable! But look at the numbers: in July 2008, the UNH poll asked about favorability for top NH names. John E. Sununu - already under fire from candidates in a Democratic primary and then Jeanne Shaheen - was at 52% Favorable.
With nobody attacking him, Judd Gregg was one point higher at 53%.
Since November 4th's historic realignment election for the Democrats in the Granite State and the nation, reinforcing the gains made last cycle and proving without a doubt that 2006 was no "fluke," New Hampshire's premiere political column has run two columns in a row discussing almost exclusively the state GOP.
And in-between there was an article where DiStaso and Smith finally figured out (or, perhaps more accurately, finally decided to make better known) that the migrants from Massachusetts were actually adding to the Republican ranks here, though they still perpetuated the convenient storyline that the natives hadn't gone blue, they just keep moving away or dying*.
When Wally was kind enough to single out our site, he said "We need a Republican version in this state." I respectfully submit to Wally that whenever it was that the UL began enabling comments, we got one.
* There is truth to that claim, of course, but using it as the explanation on why New Hampshire natives voted Democratic is misleading, imho.
Adding: I have been struck more and more, and this week in particular, with how good Lauren Dorgan's Capital Beat is in the Monitor. If you were to add to it the kind of unnamed source news from both sides that DiStaso gets, you'd have the go-to print column in this state (hint, hint, unnamed sources). And of course, online, Pindell and Lawson's 'Ticker owns the field of non-partisan political space.
Andy Smith, director of the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire, said it's important to remember the premise that most people don't know who their Congress person is and tend to vote along party lines.
...Coming from a grassroots campaign in the 2006 election, Shea-Porter had finally gained name recognition, something Smith said is very important when it comes to re-election bids.
"Once they have name recognition it's very easy for them to win," he said.
Smith also said Shea-Porter's attempt at a second term made her vulnerable, in that the possibility of someone new challenging her was a concern. Fortunately for her that someone was Bradley and voters already knew what to expect.
Here's my summary:
1) Most voters didn't know Carol Shea-Porter's name.
2) Most voters vote for the Democrat if they are a Democrat, a Republican if Republican.
3) Forget #1: Carol Shea-Porter's name is now known.
4) It's very easy to win if voters know your name.
5) Because Jeb ran before, voters know his name too.
6) Forget #4: That we know Jeb's name too makes it harder for him to win.
Seriously, there's no snark intended here. Help me understand what Andy Smith means, because for the life of me I can't figure it out.
My own take: Carol Shea-Porter won because a majority of first district voters share her values as she expressed them by her votes, because she is very attentive to her constituents, and because she is fearless about having a dialogue with anyone, no matter their political stripe or agenda. Because despite not taking special interest PAC money, she raised more than any other Congressperson in New Hampshire history, and in small-dollar donations.
And she won by a significant margin, despite a perpetually hostile and partisan statewide newspaper that has attacked her for the entirety of her political life, an opponent who reveled in mudslinging and falsehoods, an NRCC totally demoralized about the national picture and therefore extra-focused on getting bragging rights for a few token races they thought they could win, a corrosive and incorrect "fluke" narrative about her first victory by pundits from Andy Smith to Jennifer Donahue, and a political base not located in her district's largest voter-rich city of Manchester.
You know what? I'm seriously starting to think that Carol is the strongest Democrat in the state of New Hampshire, because she has had so many forces working against her for two cycles now, and she has conquered them all without losing a shred of her integrity. And while I suspect she doesn't want it, I see no reason when taking a cold hard look at the conditions of her races realtive to our other fantastic Dems in the state why she isn't at the top of everyone's short list to ascend Mt. Gregg.
I was going to start analyzing the UNH tracking poll yesterday, as it was the third day of results. Stupidly, I thought that the daily nature of the tracking would overcome the failure to attend to party ID and the absurdly small sample size of the CD races.
But after I saw that Carol went from an 11 point to a 2 point lead in one day, and that, true to form, the sample was tiny, and the poll oversampled Republicans by four points or so, I just gave up.
I'm tired of cleaning up after polling accidents. There is so much going on between now and election day that I really don't have the time. It's just a great shame that it has such an effect on the CW in this state, and beyond. And it's really a crime that I have to spend a good portion of my day offline and on putting out fires from incredulous people who unknowingly put their faith in the numbers they see on WMUR and go, "Wow, Obama's going to win by that much?" or "Whoa, Jeb can pull this out!"
Concord Monitor, if you are reading this: thank you for choosing R2K for your polling. I have been really struck with the attention they have given to reality-based demographics. And if I had the money I would be commissioning them myself.
So the long and the short of it is, if you're wondering about the lack of analysis or posting on UNH polls from now until Tuesday from me, that's why.
Due to these and other factors, CQ Politics is changing the rating of the race from Leans Democrat to No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.
Too bad the day before the article appeared, two new polls arrived with much better samples and margins of error, and showing Carol Shea-Porter with significant leads - St. A's pegging it at 42-35, and Roll Call (SUSA) at 50-41. D'oh!
And then there's this from the piece:
Though voters rejected Bradley's bid for a third term in 2006, Smith argues that the results were tied to who showed up to vote in the "off-year" election.
"If we had normal turnout in 2006, it wouldn't have even been close," Smith argued. "Bradley would have won by 10 percentage points or more."
Smith believes 2006's high Democratic turnout was driven by popular Democratic Gov. John Lynch .
I'm so sick and tired of our State Level Villagers explaining away Carol's win as if she didn't earn it on her own merits. Whether it's Jennifer Donahue excusing it away on Iraq or Smith diminishing it here, this tendency (a by-product of the shadow that the UL casts over NH political conventional wisdom, imho) shows a basic lack of curiosity (or worse) about one of the most intersting and idiosyncratic 2006 House races in all the nation. I personally feel that, two years on, I'm still only grasping with pieces of the true story behind Carol's win. And it might take me another two years to feel like I've got it.
As I see it now, Carol Shea-Porter won her race, and her primary before that, because, despite a fraction of the money, she indefatigably outworked everyone else and was on the people's side of the issues. Just as she is today. And despite the standard-issue flag-waving of Jeb Bradley, e.g., even the VFW understands that. Or perhaps in a more accurate way to put it, the VFW especially understands that.
Maybe on the morning of November 5th, the local punditocracy will finally figure out that Carol Shea-Porter rightfully earned not one but two terms representing the first district of the finest state in the Union. And it'll be about damn time they caught up with the rest of us.
Dean already highlighted that the latest UNH poll was apparently done in
Faux Hampshire, the land of 7% more Republicans than New Hampshire.
There are a couple other numbers I want to draw your attention to there.
252
6.2%
271
6%
That's the sample size and margin of error for the NH-01 and NH-02 polls.
I am agape and aghast that any pollster who even pretends to care about quality of information or even, cravenly, their own reputation would release polls with numbers like that. That's just ridiculous.
WMUR / Granite State Poll
The University of New Hampshire
MCCAIN WITH SLIGHT NH EDGE, MANY VOTERS UNDECIDED
DURHAM, NH John McCain has regained a slight lead over Barack Obama in the
race for President in the swing state of New Hampshire. But many voters
remain undecided and many more say they could change their minds between
now and the election. The most important issue to voters continues to be
jobs and the economy.
These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll, sponsored
by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey
Center. Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults
were interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21,
2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2%. Included
was a subsample of 523 likely November voters (margin of sampling error,
+/-4.3%).
Although New Hampshire has only 4 votes in the Electoral College it will be
a battleground state in the November election. Currently, Arizona Senator
John McCain holds a small lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama. In the
most recent Granite State Poll, 47% of likely voters say they plan to vote
for McCain, 45% say they will vote for Obama, 1% prefer some other
candidate and 7% are undecided.
For complete press release and detailed tabular results, please click:
http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent...
Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.
Director, The Survey Center
Assoc. Professor of Political Science
G05 Huddleston Hall
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824
603.862.2226
603.862.3877
www.unh.edu/survey-center
"Democrats in the state, by and large, are upper-income, high-education, liberal. What you'd think of as elite Democrats, not blue-collar folks," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center.
...Smith said one of Shea-Porter's biggest "problems" as she seeks a second term is essentially that "she's just a Democrat in what's still a largely Republican district."
"She is not particularly appealing to blue-collar Democrats, " Smith said.
But Ray Buckley, state Democratic Party chair, contends that Shea-Porter's House votes have been in the "mainstream of New Hampshire values."
It totally makes sense why she's unappealing to blue-collar folks. After all, Carol Shea-Porter was raised in an elite military family, went to elite public schools - such as Andy Smith's elite UNH - and, prior to becoming a Congresswoman, paid the bills by staying far away from regular folks through her job as an elite social worker.
And just take a look at some of Shea-Porter's work in Congress in the past month. The woman is totally out of touch with the working class:
Congresswoman Shea-Porter Secures Critical Funding for Shipyard
Friday August 01, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, helped pass legislation which will provide vital resources to our nation's veterans, as well as secured important funding for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard.
Shea-Porter Continues to Stand Up for Military Families, Introduces Critical Veterans Bill
Friday August 01, 2008
On the day before the start of the Annual District Work Period, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter used her time in Washington to stand up for our nation's military families and veterans.
Shea-Porter Scores Legislative Victory for New Hampshire Students
Thursday July 31, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter voted in favor of legislation which will address the mounting cost of education and help remove barriers that prevent qualified students from attending college.
Shea-Porter Supports Bill to Restrain Energy Speculation
Wednesday July 30, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter voted in favor of the Commodity Market Transparency and Accountability Act (H.R. 6604), a bill which would reduce gas prices by preventing excessive speculation and energy market manipulation.
Congresswoman Shea-Porter To Introduce Legislation Requiring New Hampshire Has Full Service VA Hospital
Monday July 28, 2008
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter continued to demonstrate her unwavering support for veterans by announcing she will introduce legislation requiring the Veterans Administration to provide New Hampshire veterans with the same services veterans in other states receive at their full service hospitals.
Shea-Porter Announces HHS Grant to Ensure Access to Health Care Coverage
Thursday July 24, 2008
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter announced today that New Hampshire has been awarded a nearly $900,000 federal grant from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
Congresswoman Shea-Porter Introduces Home Heating Assistance Bill
Thursday July 17, 2008
Today, Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter introduced legislation to provide emergency funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. The legislation, the Home Energy Assistance through Emergency Relief Act, would increase funding for LIHEAP by $9 billion.
I don't know about you, but to me that list reeks of patchouli and arugula and double lattes. It's not a particularly appealing list for, say, blue collar democrats, for example.
p.s. Some more fun: which Hamster can come up with the most succinct datum to counter the broad-brush nonsense of calling NH-01 "still a largely Republican district"?
(May make this a weekly feature - promoted by Mike)
Some of these have popped up before around here. But here are some notable NH quotes from the past week.
Ken Burns comments on WWII vs. the "War on Terror":
Asked about the contrast between today's home front and World War II, Burns called the latter, "the greatest collective effort in the history of our country."
Common sacrifice is lacking today, he said.
"We now have a military class in this country that suffers apart and alone, whereas there wasn't a family on any street in America that wasn't in some way touched by the war," he said.
"When 9/11 happened what were you asked to do? Nothing. Go shopping. That's what we were told," Burns said. "Go shopping. It's ridiculous. Nobody said, 'This is a war born of oil, turn your thermostats down five degrees.'"
