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Note: It's becoming more apparent to me that, if I'm serious about this Blue News Tribune thing, I have to get innovative about establishing its identity, and that's going to take more mental energy than I have to spare. In short, I really have to leave Dean's farm. But I figure I owe him this one.
Last week, speaking at Harvard on the same stage as David Axelrod -- and therefore, having every reason to lie or toss blame around -- McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said the Republican politician with the highest favorability rating in the country was Sarah Palin.
That doesn't surprise me at all. It shouldn't surprise you either. Ask yourself: Do you hate Sarah Palin? Politically, you should: her views are as scary, her ambition as callously rampant, as any American politician in my lifetime. She shows contempt for process, for the public's right to know, or for any limitation on her own behavior. She has been compared to Bush, and I find that apt. The dangerous thing is: after all these eight years, you don't hate Bush. Even if you hate what he's done, you don't hate him personally.
Palin has something most politicians would kill for: people like her. On a basic, gut check, "Do I understand this person?" level, people like her. It's difficult to explain (I'd be rich, or I'd have it at least), but I can tell you how it manifests. All political figures, in America, are desperate to be liked. The best, like Obama, invite you to work with them. The worst are so needy that their need becomes their platform and eventually their life, and they end up either in crushing defeat for higher office or stuffing cash into their clothing and getting caught. Palin is something else: her need to be liked is evident, but somehow, it is engaging. Think of her answering debate questions: John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton all had moments when you could see their wheels turning, when they were searching for the right answer. Palin's attempts, plus the winking, were famously ridiculed, but they also were sincere, in a strange way. They never stopped. Katie Couric asked her what newspapers she reads -- I remind you, we are talking about the Governor of our largest state -- and she couldn't name one. Oh. My. G-d. All she had to say was Anchorage Daily News. What, she was worried Katie had a killer follow-up question based on an item in the Anchorage Daily News?
Media in general was a bugaboo for Palin. Clearly, hatred of the media was a cornerstone of her political identity, but she became a media star. How to react? Katie liked her shoes; it had to be puzzling.
For most of the campaign, Palin walked a delicate line. She was put forward as "regular folk," but suddenly she was a national political figure, so even people willing to accept her as regular folk knew something had happened to put her there. McCain didn't throw a dart at a map. So for 12 weeks or so, she did this dance, and she was the most watchable figure in American politics simply because you never knew what she was going to do. The madman theory was playing itself out on the domestic stage, and it breathed life into a dull as dishwater McCain campaign, until economic events forced McCain to retake the stage.
Obama, brilliantly instinctive, stepped back. He threw out "lipstick on a pig" to remind people he was running, and that stopped the Palin juggernaut for a bit. Dared not to compare their records, he compared their personae. His holds up, hers (for now) does not. His numbers began to move. Then the economic crisis occurred, McCain threw his hissy fit, and Obama's numbers accelerated.
Palin, meanwhile, tried to play her role. When McCain announced he was pulling out of Michigan, she said, "Todd and I might go." I think she meant this to be helpful, but it was spun as rebellion. Perhaps stayed by her condescending handlers, she said nothing further.
"Clothesgate" was a key moment. Everyone acknowledged her right to do some shopping to be on TV 24 hours a day. But, she spent too much. She went to Neiman Marcus. Suddenly, she didn't seem so much like regular folk. Maybe some portion of the electorate would have taken the same opportunity, but they would have stopped well shy of 150 grand.
But the only real scandal -- the question that still lingers -- is young Trig. Without getting into the particulars, there is some evidence that Trig is actually Bristol's child. That, people could accept -- but the notion that Palin claimed Trig is hers to protect her daughter (really, to protect her political career) is over the line. The story was never fully explored because people ran from it. The alternative, that a pregnant Bristol "made the choice" to have the child doesn't sit very well either. It's the sort of situation where there are no right answers, but there are enough questions to make one wonder what Palin was thinking. Bristol, it appears, did not come first. That's unsettling.
For the moment, let's suppose Trig's origins are not mysterious. Suppose Sarah is his mother, and the messy Palin family is really no more messy than my family or yours. Then, if this is true and this view takes hold, look out. You have a national figure whose negatives are already out there and (unlike, say, being married to a president who inspires strong feelings) completely surmountable. Not a geography expert? What American is? Don't read the paper much? Develop the habit. She remains the best copy on the political scene, other than the president himself, and she is a star in a party riddled with losers and has-beens.
She will be back. My advice: she should sit out 2012, let someone else lose to Obama. In 2016, she'd be tough to beat.
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