"Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line."

by: Douglas E. Lindner

Wed Oct 12, 2011 at 15:55:34 PM EDT

That time-tested adage might be wrong.

In 2000, Al Gore was not the candidate he could have been, not the candidate he might have been had he come back and "Let Bartlet Gore Be Gore" in '04 or '08, and his victory was too narrow to stick (I know, Florida, and I agree, but stay with me here). In 2004, John Kerry--though a good Senator--was not the candidate we needed.

Republicans fell in love with Bush; Democrats fell in line with Gore and Kerry.

In 2008, it was our turn. Despite a more divisive primary process, Democrats fell in love (as we would have with Hillary Clinton), and Republicans fell in line with John McCain.  It was the most decisive Democratic victory in a Presidential election since 1966.  As far as I can tell (and I looked into it), President Obama received more votes than any candidate for any office in any country, ever. (sidenote: America is the second most populous democracy, but India, a parliamentary democracy, does not directly elect its leader)

2012 will be tough, and liberals take issue with some things President Obama has done or not done, but the numbers are clear: Democrats, liberals, and Americans in general like Barack Obama personally.  They may not approve of everything he's done, and when the country is hurting, criticism (misplaced or otherwise) is to be expected.  But people still support this person being their leader.  And most of us know--some deeper down than others--that he's much, much better than the alternative.

Here's the thing: there is no alternative. Perry? Cain? Bachmann? Paul? Who is it?

Conventional Wisdom points to Mitt Romney. He's nobody's favorite. He's not the most conservative or the most moderate. He's not the most likable or the most inspiring. He's not the most genuine or the most opportunistic. But Republicans like him because they think he's the guy that can defeat a President they hate.

Personally, I think given the current field, it has to be Romney. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann won't survive a devastating blow coming their way from New Hampshire independents, Herman Cain will have trouble with southern conservatives, Ron Paul is a niche candidate, and Jon Huntsman has Obama cooties (which is unfortunate, because he'd be a better President than the others at that table last night).

So that leaves the GOP with Romney-Christie 2012. That doesn't exactly scream "Morning in America".

Republicans better hope they fall in line this time.

Redistricting, What's Up With That?

by: Mike Hoefer

Tue Aug 02, 2011 at 10:01:06 AM EDT

I post this in hopes that some members of the BH community whom have been through this before will comment on the process and timelines. Is there opportunity for public input? Where are the biggest risks for Gerrymandering?

I'd assume that the biggest risks for "shaping" electoral come in the State Senate and Executive council.

As this is a once a decade process I hope that BH can play a part in making sure the process is fair and public.

(If any hamsters want to take this topic on in a dedicated, focused manner please let me know!)

From POTUS

by: Mike Hoefer

Mon Aug 01, 2011 at 16:10:02 PM EDT

Statement from Senator Shaheen:

"This compromise achieves four critical things - it avoids a default that could have devastated our economy; it gives businesses the certainty they need to grow and hire by resolving this issue until 2013; it makes significant reductions in our long-term deficit and debt; and it protects Social Security and Medicare benefits. Although this is not the plan I would have designed, and while I remain concerned about the level of cuts still possible to programs that are important to New Hampshire families and businesses, this plan is a compromise and I will support it."

LDI: New Hampshire

by: TheLDI

Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 19:31:02 PM EDT

(This diary is part of a series, maintained at the above website.  Since it is written for a national audience, some of the New Hampshire stuff will probably be a little redundant, but I think it's really important that the people who care about this stuff in-state have the data. If you are interested in reading more, the banner will take you to the main page.)

For all the attention that midwestern states have received the past few months by the online progressive community, Republicans in New Hampshire have been doing everything possible to regress the state's laws.  Led by their tea-flavored house leadership, Republicans have worked on "right to work", voter ID, deadly force, parental notification for abortions, and the New Hampshire Executive Committee recent voted to defund Planned Parenthood.  Without Governor John Lynch's veto power, my neighbors would be looking a lot more comfortable below the Mason-Dixon Line rather than sharing the Connecticut River - but that hasn't stopped everything.

(The good stuff below the fold - elwood)

NH Congressional Polls (PPP)

by: Mike Hoefer

Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 11:59:13 AM EDT

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/30-7/2, 7/5, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines):

Carol Shea-Porter (D): 41
Frank Guinta (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±5.7%)

Ann McLane Kuster (D): 42
Charlie Bass (R-inc): 43
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±5.1%)

While somewhat optimistic about NH-02, David expresses some concern regarding Dem chances in NH-01, even postulating

I wouldn't be surprised if other Democrats decided to get in here, especially since Guinta has weaknesses of his own that are ready to be exploited by a well-equipped challenger.

My take? We are going to have to give and work hard if we want to flip these seats. I know NH Dems are up for it.

What do you think about these numbers?

BH Straw Poll: NH-02 #2

by: Mike Hoefer

Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 09:12:12 AM EDT

BH Straw Poll: NH-01 #2

by: Mike Hoefer

Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 09:02:34 AM EDT

The BH Research Department has aslo come across this site for Matthew Hancock.

If Lynch does run again, I suspect this will be the only major office with an interesting Primary.

BH Straw Poll: NH-GOV #2

by: Mike Hoefer

Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 12:09:10 PM EDT

Here is Poll #2 including names of people that garnered at least 4% of votes last time. Let'r rip.

Update: (Will get polls for NH-01/02up later today/tonight Friday AM... Sorry this afternoon/evening got away from me)

In the Rolling Hills of New Hampshire

by: Douglas E. Lindner

Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 12:28:13 PM EDT

You might argue there's nothing to win in an uncontested primary, but I think you'd be wrong.

If the President and Vice President come here, to the kind of small venues they attended when they were Senators, to fire up the (relatively) small gatherings of activists that got Obama where he is now, to remind our small portion of the grassroots what we can do and what we hope to achieve, they can draw a striking contrast with the party of "no we can't," whose frontrunners are lackluster and whose enthusiasm is born of anger, of distress, of fear, of hatred, and of pessimism for the future of America.

President Obama has largely given up the mantle of big-dreaming inspiration since he took office, and he should bring that back. Bring back the hope, if only because his opponents insist that hope is lost and intend to prove it.

It would go a long way in setting the narrative of this campaign, and in reminding the grassroots he knows where he came from and who got him where he is now.

Rasmussen Alert

by: GreyMike

Sun Jun 05, 2011 at 14:27:25 PM EDT

Mostly the usual stuff, most important issues, country on right track or wrong track (nothing like a meaningless binary measure there), etc. But, the most interesting to me was the "who's qualified to be POTUS" list for the R's, and some names NOT mentioned: Romney, Guiliani, and Palin.  However, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Caine, Christie, Bachmann, Ron Paul, were all mentioned, and I may have missed a couple (maybe Huntsman, but I got bored along the way).

One always has the distinct impression that each question is predicated on the answer that was given before, and the whole thing definitely sloped to the right (no surprise with Rasmussen) with a number of very vaguely worded questions when it came to ideology.

Anybody else get this one who remembers more specifics or different info from the foregoing?

I love my country; I love my family more.

by: Vis Unita Fortior

Mon May 23, 2011 at 15:19:22 PM EDT

"Also, when I think about what running against Barack Obama in 2012 would be like, I feel a need to hide in the dark and cry like a small child with pigtails."

ICYMI: The NH GOP's Underwhelming Cattle Call

by: William Tucker

Mon May 02, 2011 at 14:00:00 PM EDT

Five GOP presidential wannabes were in the state this weekend for back-to-back cattle calls with Granite State Republicans. The results were so underwhelming that Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party declared, “The race needs more responsible adults who can actually do the job.”

Mitt Romney, the ostensible front runner, struggled.

Romney remains an exceptionally unnatural public speaker. To convey passion and excitement, he raises the pitch of his voice and imbues it with urgency. But it never quite clicks. His tone and affect are like that of an adult doing a dramatic reading of a pirate story to a wide-eyed three year old. It doesn’t help that he speaks too quickly and often trips over his lines. At points during his speech, Romney seemed to slip into a frenzy and start madly free associating economic buzzwords.

Romney was especially maladroit when he tried to ad-lib a Jimmy Carter-Barack Obama comparison about how Republicans need to hang the "Obama Misery Index" around Obama's neck.

Romney repeated the "we're going to hang him" locution once more and then, all of a sudden, in mid-sentence, seemed to realize that metaphors about hanging a black man probably wouldn't redound to his political benefit. [VIDEO]

Dowdell is in

by: Mike Hoefer

Thu Apr 28, 2011 at 11:01:10 AM EDT

The people of the first district will be well served by either of these fine people, and a well run primary will be accreditive to the process and increase our chances of winning the seat back from Frank Guinta.

9 Comments: 2012 Election Climate

by: elwood

Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

1. There will almost certainly be a state Constitutional amendment on the ballot to excuse the state from responsibility to educate our kids. (The only way it doesn't appear, is if the House and Senate can't agree on language.) It will be less stark that the House bill: it will pay lip service to the notion that the state cares, but it will wipe out any recourse by parents and local taxpayers if the state completely guts school funding.
2. There will be a new set of House and Senate districts. Incumbents in each chamber, in each party, will be competing in a new field. I don't understand just what that will mean for likely election results - but, in cities where neighbors have both won at-large, one will lose: they will run against each other for a ward seat.
3. Republican State Senators will be quietly portraying themselves as the grown-ups, a check on the crazy Bill O'Brien House. "Sure, things were out of control in Concord this session in the House - it's a good thing I was there to rein them in."
   
4. The Republican Presidential primary will be long over.  It will have energized Republican / tea party activists.  The national party will be trying hard to keep them all energized - probably through a "balanced ticket," with a relatively "traditional" Presidential candidate and a tea party Veep, who will believe that Obama was probably born in Africa.
5. The Republican primary will also have filled the coffers of the local party and local right-wing groups, who will manage to raise money on tickets and advertising for candidate appearances and debates. That influx of money and publicity won't be there for Democrats, because we don't have a primary contest.
6. Two concerns will dominate the national election factors: the economy and the Republican votes to kill Medicare and give the wealthiest another tax cut.  When the economy is bad it hurts incumbents: meaning it hurts Obama, but it hurts Bass and Guinta too.  The net effect is bad for those two.
   
7. All of the traditional Democratic constituencies in the state will be extremely motivated. Environmentalists will be motivated by the attack on RGGI; organized labor by the Right to Work bill - and probably by massive layoffs in state and local government and schools; educators by the constitutional amendment, the effort to encourage dropouts, and the attack on tenure; women's health activists by the parental consent bill and efforts to kill Planned Parenthood; the legal community by the interference with the Attorney General's office.
8. The Republican constituencies, however, may be split. The "social conservatives" will be happy, with the attacks on women's health programs, the 2012 votes to outlaw gay marriage, and the university system. But the business community will be uneasy. The ideology coming from the O'Brien crowd hurts them, too: construction companies need to have taxes raised to fund highway and bridge construction, for example. The libertarian community will find itself at a crossroads: they have discovered a path to power, but the price has been surrendering core principles.
9. The big missing piece in this diorama is the Governor's race.  If the election is a referendum on the performance of the 2011-2012 state legislature, does that make Lynch the best-positioned standard-bearer?  Or is dissatisfaction likely to hurt all incumbents, including Lynch? (Polls don't say that today.) If the Republican candidate is a relative fresh face (e.g., Ovide Lamontagne) talking about the future, does that put a premium on a fresh Democratic face?  Does the Governor's race get wrapped up in the school funding ballot amendment?

Straw Poll Results

by: Mike Hoefer

Fri Apr 22, 2011 at 09:57:17 AM EDT

NH Gov 148 Votes (poll excluded John Lynch)
* Mark Connolly - 46 votes (31.08%)
* Jackie Cilley - 33 votes (22.3%)
* Maggie Hassan - 26 votes (17.57%)
* Undecided - 16 votes (10.81%)
* Other - 9 votes (6.08%)
Ed Note: Who is Mark Connolly? (Rhetorical) Strong showing for someone little name rec, at least outside of politico circles and in the eastern part of the state.

Congress NH-01 109 Votes
* Carol Shea-Porter - 82 votes (75.23%)
* Mark Connolly - 12 votes (11.01%)
* Other - 7 votes (6.42%)
* Joanne Dowdell - 5 votes (4.59%)
Ed Note: As one would expect, strong support for CSP from the denizens of BH. Is it strong enough to to keep others out of a primary?

Congress NH-02 96 Votes
* Ann Kuster - 78 votes (81.25%)
* Katrina Swett - 5 votes (5.21%)
* Jay Buckey - 4 votes (4.17%)
* Other - 4 votes (4.17%)
Ed Note: Even stronger BH support for AMK. I suspect we will not see a primary here, but agree that candidate Kuster was well served by the primary in 2010.

We encourage all the folks mentioned above (particularly in the Gov. Category) to create accounts on Blue Hampshire to join the conversation.

We will conduct our second poll June 15th.

Question of the Day.... Ronald Reagan Edition

by: Mike Hoefer

Mon Apr 18, 2011 at 12:08:53 PM EDT

Talk amongst yourselves...

BH Straw Poll: NH-GOV #1

by: Mike Hoefer

Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM EDT

BH Straw Poll: NH-01 #1

by: Mike Hoefer

Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 10:58:00 AM EDT

BH Straw Poll: NH-02 #1

by: Mike Hoefer

Fri Apr 15, 2011 at 10:56:00 AM EDT

For Whom the Straw Polls...

by: Mike Hoefer

Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 17:04:26 PM EDT

Governor Lynch is polling strongly and could be considering a historic 5th term, but for the sake of this polling we'll assume he is not.

Ann Kuster has announced (much to the relief of folks like me who have not removed their bumper stickers!) that she will run again in NH-02, but are there any other folks we should poll there?

NH-01 could be very interesting with Guinta's weak numbers (-7 favorability) and an open Dem seat. Whom should we poll for that race?

Please let us know who we should include. Wannabees get your mail lists ready!