Increasingly Southern GOP Ready to Ditch NH Primary?

Any campaign manager who says (4.00 / 2)

"Hey, it's only twelve delegates! Let's just skip New Hampshire!" can get a job working for President Giuliani.

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by: elwood @ Wed Jan 28, 2009 at 12:43:17 PM CST

We'll Hold First Primary In 2012 (4.00 / 2)

The NH First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary has never been "given" to us by either of the national parties, or by the other states.  And since 1975 when we first put our "first" status into our statute, no other state or the national parties have been able to figure out a way around our law -- and they've tried.

Under our law, our Secretary of State MUST -- is REQUIRED TO -- set our primary "...7 days or more..." before any "similar election."  "Simlar election" can be interpreted in a number of ways.  Our Secretary of State cannot negotiate with the other states, and cannot be dictated to by either of the national parties.  He must follow the law, and Bill Gardner, who has been in charge of setting our Primary date in every election cycle since 1980, knows how to patiently wait until late in the scheduling process, and then set our date, making it extremely difficult for other states to hold out and jump ahead of us.  We know what the Democratic National Committee tried to do to make the NH Primary less relevant at the front of the process in 2008.  They failed.  We won.

The "action" this time in trying to reduce the importance or relevance of the NH Primary for 2012 is likely to be on the Republican side, and I have no doubt they'll try.  But they won't succeed.

The pay-your-own-caucus threat couldn't work because under our New Hampshire law even if the Republicans in New Hampshire opted out of the regular primary as a way of deciding their delegate-selection process, which I doubt they would, we'd still hold a statewide presidential primary "...7 days or more..." ahead of any "similar election."  Barack Obama would be on the Democratic ballot, and whomever is running for President on the Republican side would be well-advised to be on the Republican ballot, with or without any delegates assigned.  

THAT would create confusion among Republicans everywhere, a "who won?" dilemma, and would make New Hampshire even more important, not less so, for all the Republican candidates.

In the past 30 + I've seen the NH Primary challenged time and time again, but with our state law, and a bit of manuevering by our Secretary of State, none of those challenges have been successful.  We'll be fine for 2012, 2016, and well beyond -- no matter what the national parties try to invent.

Our defenders in the political parties -- this time on the Democratic side Ray Buckley, Kathy Sullivan, and Peter Burling as Chair and National Committeepeople -- best do their job by making sure that no other state and the national party doesn't even try to reduce the relevance of our Primary.  Their efforts, like those of other NH Democratic Party leaders in the past, in keeping the other states out of the way of the NH Primary are important to make it even less likely that another state could create a problem for our lead-off status.  I'm sure they'll succeed again.  NH Republican leaders need to do the same.

I hope John Sununu is paying attention.  Even if he isn't, we'll prevail.  I remember in 2005 and 2006 the headlines saying that New Hampshire's lead status was finished, and that we'd be the fourth, maybe even the fifth event.  We weren't. We had the first Primary.  It was an important one.  It "launched" John McCain and "revitalized" Hillary Clinton, giving Barack Obama months of additional campaign time so he would win in November.  If any state was degraded in relevance in the 2008 cycle it was Iowa.  The election for 2008 began with New Hampshire.  

We'll be just as important in the future again, no matter what the Republicans line up.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Wed Jan 28, 2009 at 13:05:08 PM CST

Southern GOP (0.00 / 0)

I was wondering this today; who leads the GOP?

It should be McCain, or Bush even, in the normal course of events -- this being a sort of interregnum until new leadership takes shape. But who is it? McConnell?

Re: the primary, they don't care about 2012. If they ditch New Hampshire, it will be in 2016.

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by: JimC @ Wed Jan 28, 2009 at 13:42:55 PM CST