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Specter Trails Likely GOP Challenger

by: JimC

Wed Mar 25, 2009 at 17:38:53 PM EDT
From Talking Points Memo.

The numbers: Toomey 41%, Specter 27%. Specter's loss of his Republican base also leaves him with weak numbers for a general election, with only 31% against a generic Democrat's 33%.

(snip)

Keep in mind that Pennsylvania uses a closed primary, and the number of registered Republicans has fallen since 2004 -- when Specter only held off Toomey by a 51%-49% margin -- leaving a very conservative base. And Specter's vote for the stimulus bill certainly can't have helped him.

I believe we should fear this. Just last week, a "union consultant" was willing to consider endorsing Specter. That's gone, because Specter said he won't for the Employee Free Choice Act, but it speaks volumes that they were willing to dangle the prospect of union support for a Republican.

The Republican Party is clearly at a crossroads, and we don't want it thinking it needs fewer Specters and more Toomeys.

Specter is far from perfect, of course, but he is generally reachable and willing to negotiate.

Toomey, by contrast, leads the Club for Growth.

Club for Growth Policy Goals:
- Making the Bush tax cuts permanent
- Death tax repeal
- Cutting and limiting government spending
- Social Security reform with personal retirement accounts
- Expanding free trade
- Legal reform to end abusive lawsuits
- Replacing the current tax code
- School choice
- Regulatory reform and deregulation

Dashes are bullets in original; sorry, CGF.

"School choice," aka "vouchers for private schools." Ick ...
JimC :: Specter Trails Likely GOP Challenger
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Specter Trails Likely GOP Challenger | 11 comments
I don't know (0.00 / 0)
Personally, the more Toomeys the Republicans want to run north of Virginia and east of Ohio, the better. It makes electing their Democratic opponents that much easier when the Republicans are putting up such unelectable lunatics. If Toomey wanted to run in Alabama, sure, he'd fit in just fine. But Pennsylvania? The Pennsyltucky area isn't nearly enough to get a wingnut in office anymore. They learned their lesson from Santorum.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!
It's one of those things (0.00 / 0)
On one hand, who cares who they nominate? But on the other hand, the symbolism of an old stalwart like Specter being defeated on his right -- he may be mavericky, but he's no liberal -- is unsettling.
[ Parent ]
I see your point (4.00 / 1)
I just take a different view of it. If Republicans are entering into a purity-purging death spiral, to the point where Specter (who, it must be noted, has never been on his party's right flank by any means) is endangered, I see it as an opportunity for the party that does want government to function and function well to increase its ability to run the government. Right versus left isn't the primary battle I see between Republicans and Democrats anymore; it's no-government versus good-government. When those are the options, I choose good government every time, and would sooner see the no-government party completely marginalized; a rational two-party system can then emerge where one party might be to the right of the other, but at least both parties agree that the government should function. I don't think anymore that Republicans want the government to work, period. So though it might be sad in some ways to see the saner voices being annihilated from their death-spiral party, I see it as a net gain, reducing their overall power to prevent the government from working and driving them further and further off the cliff they're so hell-bent on driving over.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!
[ Parent ]
If all else fails (4.00 / 1)
There's Evan Bayh and his dopey little club.

[ Parent ]
Exact;ly (4.00 / 2)
I would much rather have Evan Bayh and his 'dopey little club' be the primary source of opposition. Bayh acknowledges the need for action and government intervention in an unstable time; he wants to debate about how much. Republicans won't acknowledge that the government needs to do anything at all. Ever. If it were possible to eliminate the Republican ideology entirely and have the left and right flanks of the Democratic party become the two new parties, I would totally take that over keeping existing Republicans. We'd have two parties with an actual interest in government and making the system work, not one party that wants to make the system work and one party that wants to break it.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!
[ Parent ]
I can't get there (0.00 / 0)
Yes, the right wing of our party is better than the left wing of theirs.

Now what? The GOP is down, but a long way from out.

[ Parent ]
"Fewer Specters and more Toomeys" (4.00 / 5)
Jim, you're missing a BIG point here.

Specter can win Pennsylvania. Toomey cannot. The polls have been clear on that.

If Republicans decide Arlen isn't pure enough, that's fine by me. Pennsylvania will elect a moderate Democrat - who WILL support EFCA.

Not missing it entirely (4.00 / 1)
This dynamic is one of my frustrations. We can win the "moderate seats," but we're reluctant to take on the Jon Kyls of the world. I understand the logic of it, but I'd still rather have Chafee or Specter than Cornyn.

As implied, this is not my highest priority. We have our own house to take care of.

[ Parent ]
I'll Take My Chances (4.00 / 6)
Arlen Specter sold out a long, long time ago.  He's the Charlie Bass of Pennsylvania -- a Republican who votes with the party leadership on everything but a few tactically selected issues, but is still called a "moderate" because he's pro-choice.  George W. Bush bailed him out against Toomey in '04, and he returned the favor in spades.  (See:  Roberts, Alito)  The man is no Olympia Snowe.  And, oh yes, don't forget that he continues to vote for Mitch McConnell to lead the Senate.

Like Charlie, Specter has used his "moderate" image to eke out wins in a state that should have long ago replace him with a Democrat.  That time has come.

Toomey may be a nutcase, but that will only make him more vulnerable in a general election.  Remember, we have a wildly popular Gov. Rendell running for re-election.  And we have a deep bench:  Reps. Pat Murphy and Joe Sestak are strong candidates, and they would push us that much closer to 60 in the Senate.

ROFL (4.00 / 2)
for "the Charlie Bass of Pennsylvania."

That's especially apt given the post I'm working on right now (coming soon...)

[ Parent ]
He calls Arlen Sphincter (0.00 / 0)
the Charlie Ass of New Hmapshire(then he ducks)

"Poetry is not an expression of the party line. It's that time of night, lying in bed, thinking what you really think, making the private world public, that's what the poet does." Allen Ginsberg
[ Parent ]
Specter Trails Likely GOP Challenger | 11 comments
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