|
Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden. Bill Richardson. Wes Clark. Sam Nunn. . . . We follow the horse race. But who should Obama select? Who would add the most to the Democratic ticket?
Before I defend my choice, let me first set forth four VP selection rules of thumb:
DO NOT. . . .
1. Pick a VP who "balances" out the weaknesses of the presidential nominee. This never works. If Obama selects a conservative southerner with 30 years of foreign policy experience (e.g. Nunn), or if McCain opts for a running mate who is half his age (e.g. Jindal), the only consequence would be to highlight their respective weaknesses. And that never works.
Look at history: Did Lloyd Bentsen deliver the South for Dukakis? How about all those baby boomer women that Dan Quayle convinced to vote for George H.W. Bush? Did Edwards' charisma make Kerry stronger, or did it merely emphasize that the Massachusetts senator had such limited personal appeal himself?
2. Pick a VP with high personal negatives. VP nominees are far more likely to offend support than attract it. Thus, it makes little sense to pick a running mate with a significant base of opposition -- both inside and outside of the party.
And, yes, I'm talking about Hillary and Mitt.
DO. . . .
3. Pick a VP whose strengths as a candidate complement your own. In other words, synergize like Bill Clinton. In 1992, many "experts" were urging him to pick an old war horse like Lee Hamilton and Harris Wofford, someone whose political trajectory could not be more different from his own. But Bill knew better. By choosing Al Gore -- a fellow young, handsome, wonkish, moderate southernor -- he reinforced his message of change, excited his base, and gave his campaign a dynamic thrust just before the Convention.
4. Go for a big state. Not a traditional model. But with only 10-15 states in play, any VP who can deliver one of them will be worth his weight in gold. In practical terms, this means: If Gov. Ted Strickland can add 5 points for Obama in Ohio, and he backs off his Shermanesque statements removing himself from consideration, he has to be seriously considered. Ditto Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) for McCain.
THAT SAID. . . .
Gov. Brian Schweitzer should be chosen as Barack Obama's running mate.
Gov. Schweitzer is a dynamic, thoughtful leader with a strong populist record. He has driven one of the most vibrant state economies in the country, and has pushed through massive (and innovative) investments in education.
Gov. Schweitzer is a skilled campaigner -- as one would have to be to win statewide office in a Republican stronghold, and push his protege (now-Sen. Jon Tester) to victory two years ago. He is wildly popular among Republicans and Democrats alike, and is an excellent speaker.
Foreign policy? Well, Schweitzer is a strong opponent of the Iraq War, and even once tried to withdraw his state's National Guard forces. And -- get this -- he speaks fluent Arabic, the legacy of many years spent overseas as an irrigation developer. (Yes, he's an ag specialist, too.)
Are there down sides to this pick? Sure. Schweitzer is a social libertarian who opposes gun control. And he's up for re-election this fall. But I don't see these as major limitations.
Schweitzer is a rancher who has NEVER had trouble connecting with voters. He is a Rocky Mountain populist in the Obama mold, and the two would make an excellent ticket.
|
Blue Hampshire RSS