Peter Bragdon and His San Francisco Agenda

but do we know (0.00 / 0)

whether a committee of conference has been agreed? will the chambers vote on the 3rd or the 10th? where can we read the new language? thx.

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by: daftdaoud @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 18:51:42 PM CDT

A Committee of Conference Is Agreed... (4.00 / 2)

...and it will meet Friday.  Let's let this process work out.  This isn't about the Governor, or the Republicans or the Democrats or any one House or Senate member -- it's about the tens of thousands of New Hampshire gays and lesbians who have waited for so long for acceptance and equality.  

The language may change a bit, but the "core principles" that the Governor wants to clearly protect the freedom of religion will likely remain intact.  

In the meanwhile, it would help to go to the State Legislative WEBSITE and find the roll call of Wednesday, May 20th where House Bill 73 lost by a vote of 188 to 186.  Please contact those Democrats or Republicans in your own district who voted "No" on concurrence.  Those are the ones who will decide the fate of HB 73 either next Wednesday on June 3rd, or on June 10th.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 19:07:08 PM CDT

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Bragdon has got to go. (0.00 / 0)

I have never been more embarrassed or disappointed in a legislator from my district than I am with this individual. It's like watching a bush-league version of Comb-over Bob all over again, but without any scruples whatsoever.

Sure hope someone will run in District 11 next time who can blow his doors off.

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by: GreyMike @ Wed May 27, 2009 at 22:55:39 PM CDT

District 11 is winnable! (4.00 / 3)

The demographics for district 11 are rapidly changing. Mark Fernald held this district for two terms 1978-2002 and it is a much more competitive district now.

There is no reason why a strong campaign for a good candidate could not be a win.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 06:04:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

So how do we do it? (4.00 / 2)

I've crunched some numbers, and here are some relevant findings:

Obama won the district 52-47, and every town except Rindge and New Ipswich.

Bragdon of Milford beat Steve Spratt of Greenville 57-43, and in every town except Greenville, Peterborough, and Sharon.

Comparing the towns to district-wide performance in both Sen-11 and Pres (in two-party vote share), there is an obvious geographic effect in the Senate race (surprise!). Amherst and Milford, for instance, performed for Obama at -1 and -0.5 points relative to the district, but for Spratt were 6.1 and 5.4 points worse than the district for differences of -5.1 and -4.8 points respectively . On the line between Amherst and Peterborough, the differences between Democratic Senate performance relative to district and Presidential performance relative to district are Amherst -5.1, Milford -4.8, Wilton +0.7, Temple +2.5, and Peterborough +3.8.

Amherst and Milford together accounted for 48% of the senate votes cast in the district.

So: to what extent must a candidate D improve on Spratt's performance district-wide and to what extent in a geographically targeted way? Spratt was undoubtedly hurt district-wide by a late-in-the-game row about whether and how he had criminally threatened some workers who were trampling his garden by yelling profanities at them and later displaying his gun to them as he was leaving to shoot at a range; a Bragdon gaffe against a good to great Democratic candidate may be required to change the overall dynamic of the race. The town-by-town results, however, suggest that it will be difficult for any Democrat to unseat an entrenched incumbent from the district's slightly-Republican-leaning population core.

A winning Democrat, of course, must receive more votes districtwide; it doesn't matter where they come from. That said, Amherst and Milford alone provided 83% of Bragdon's margin of victory; it is difficult to imagine Democratic success without significant inroads here. These two towns together have eight State Representatives, only one a Democrat, Shannon Chandley of Amherst, who won election in 2008 for the first time, coming in seventh in the district but fifth in Amherst (the slightly more Republican town). She was the only Democrat of eight to receive more votes in Amherst than in Milford. Her record has, so far as I can tell, been progressive. Whether she will be that winning Democrat for Sen-11 or not is not for me to decide, but anyone who wants to be would seem well-advised to learn from her.

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 11:05:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

also (4.00 / 2)

I'd like to suggest that this is an example of two more general rules, which I am just now making up:

1. Geography matters more and more as you get more and more local. At the Presidential level, I don't think it really matters that much; at the state level, a fair bit, and at the NH State Representative level, a heluva lot.

2. The path to electoral success (in non-Electoral College races!) runs not through your strongholds nor through the swing areas, but through your opponent's strongholds. Where can you, as a Democratic campaign manager, find discouraged Democrats to turn out? Where has there been Democratic under-investment in the past? Conversely, where will you have plenty of volunteers and lots of ideologically friendly, easily persuadable voters? Run up the tally in your strong areas as much as you can, but that's less important than going out of your way to deny your opponent the opportunity.

In other words, all else being equal, a strong Democratic candidate in NH-Sen-11 would come from a base of relative strength in Amherst and build a strong campaign in Peterborough using the pre-existing Democratic strength there, not the other way around.

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 11:22:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Exactly. (0.00 / 0)

a strong Democratic candidate in NH-Sen-11 would come from a base of relative strength in Amherst and build a strong campaign in Peterborough using the pre-existing Democratic strength there, not the other way around.

This is why Mark Fernald would not be a contender to retake his seat. Make no mistake that the Bragdon crowd was throwing as much gasoline as possible on the Spratt kerfuffle last time around. They will stop at nothing, any smear is fine with them, regardless of merit.

Any takers from the other side of Temple Mountain, please? Not too soon to get this one started.

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by: GreyMike @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 12:25:12 PM CDT

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Is there anybody on BH from the area? (0.00 / 0)

I don't go over there, and of course, as I said, it's all else being equal that the geography thing becomes really important...but I did point out that one state rep from Amherst who's a Democrat.

Hey, can somebody explain NH redistricting to me? Do we do it after the census? Is it likely to change things? I see pretty large variance in vote totals by senate district which makes me think that it will happen, and involve some redistribution of towns/wards...?

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:43:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Redistricting: Every Ten Years (Usually) (4.00 / 1)

[Art.] 9. [Representatives Elected Every Second Year; Apportionment of Representatives.] There shall be in the legislature of this state a house of representatives, biennially elected and founded on principles of equality, and representation therein shall be as equal as circumstances will admit. The whole number of representatives to be chosen from the towns, wards, places, and representative districts thereof established hereunder, shall be not less than three hundred seventy-five or more than four hundred. As soon as possible after the convening of the next regular session of the legislature, and at the session in 1971, and every ten years thereafter, the legislature shall make an apportionment of representatives according to the last general census of the inhabitants of the state taken by authority of the United States or of this state. In making such apportionment, no town, ward or place shall be divided nor the boundaries thereof altered.

and

[Art.] 26. [Senatorial Districts, How Constituted.] And that the state may be equally represented in the senate, the legislature shall divide the state into single-member districts, as nearly equal as may be in population, each consisting of contiguous towns, city wards and unincorporated places, without dividing any town, city ward or unincorporated place. The legislature shall form the single-member districts at its next session after approval of this article by the voters of the state and thereafter at the regular session following each decennial federal census.

June 2, 1784. Number of senators elected from each district (county) proportioned to taxes paid by each district.
Amended 1792 dividing the state into 12 senatorial districts still based on proportion of taxes paid by the district.
Amended 1877 increasing senate to 24 members from single member districts.
Amended 1964 providing for election of senators on basis of population.

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by: Andrew Sylvia @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 17:11:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

thank you! (0.00 / 0)

So does the legislature draw the map themselves? Does the Governor have to sign? I'd personally like to see more localized Reps, but I don't know if that's possible. Is there a history of gerrymandering?

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 17:16:53 PM CDT

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yes to all your questions n/t (0.00 / 0)

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 18:47:16 PM CDT

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in 2010.. (0.00 / 0)

In 2010 we will still be using the existing districts.  The new House & Senate districts, based on the April 2000 decennial census, don't kick in till 2012.

I am not sure how different the Senate districts next time around will be. Bragdon's district is one which looks like it could easily vanish during the next round of redistricting--- although that doesn't necessarily hurt Bragdon.

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by: TimothyHorrigan @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 17:51:45 PM CDT

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well (0.00 / 0)

We'll still have 24 Senators, right? How much are the districts likely to move around? I'm honestly just curious...it's really a bit of a ways off, all things considered.

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 18:21:47 PM CDT

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Excluding Census Changes, The Districts Most Likely To Change Boundaries If I Had To Bet (0.00 / 0)

7,9,11,12,17

17 will be very tough to get un-gerrymandered though.

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by: Andrew Sylvia @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 19:05:02 PM CDT

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The Sweet Spot (0.00 / 0)

In the analysis, there should be some factor of turn out  vs registered Dems. It would seem wise to ensure that there are enough Ds likely to sit out the election in that town before committing assets to beat the bushes.

Also, the tactic implies an investment in those "discouraged Democrats." Enlivening the local scene for the election and then walking away would be a long term disaster, imo.  

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 12:52:21 PM CDT

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I'm not sure what the right balance is (0.00 / 0)

I suspect, however, that most campaigns tend to  focus too heavily on turning out their areas of strength and persuading voters in swing areas. (Shea-Porter may be an exception, as in so many things!) I'm arguing that areas without a history of Democratic attention are likely to contain not-so-visible reservoirs of persuadable and organizable citizens, while towns like Peterborough are likely to have a relative overabundance of Democratic campaign resources, simply because of the history and partisan lean. (Not to pick on Peterborough, I like Peterborough!)

I do agree that long-term organization is required!

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:28:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Voter Registration or GOTV? (0.00 / 0)

Two different animals?

Remind me about same day registration in NH. I know there is SDR on Primary Day. What about the GE?


www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 19:57:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, there is same day registration at all state and local elections (0.00 / 0)

n/t

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by: Karen @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 20:06:38 PM CDT

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Thanks & Welcome (0.00 / 0)

Please join in some more. We don't bite..............much.

www.KusterforCongress.com  

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 20:21:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, not so fast... (4.00 / 2)

Your theories get destroyed when you use District 4's 2006 results (and 2008).

Kathy comes from Tilton, a teensy town in the far corner of the district.

Her opponent both times were elected officials from Laconia.

Using top of the ticket results for targeting purposes is not of value.

And your "entrenched" Republican theory was also thrown out the window in 2006. Dems defeated several long time Republican senators.

A Democratic victory has everything to do with the quality of the candidate and their campaign. Where they live or who their opponent is has little to do with the eventual outcome.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 14:46:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

hey now (0.00 / 0)

I'm not saying that these ideas explain all the variance in elections, far from it! Candidate quality and campaigning is much more important, which is the point behind saying that district-wide improvement over Steve Spratt's performance is necessary (duh, I know). I would like to have more and better Democrats in the State Senate, believe me! And 11 is definitely winnable; I just think it will not be easy.

Specifically: I was using Presidential numbers as a baseline for candidates without roots in the area, to tell me the partisan lean of towns relative to other towns in the district, since these numbers should not have strong town-to-town variance aside from partisan lean. I freely admit that it is imperfect. Nonetheless I believe that it is worthwhile to know, for instance, that Peterborough was more stronger relative to the other district towns for Spratt than it was stronger for Obama.

Entrenched is perhaps too strong a word; but I would argue for some advantage to incumbency, certainly in the absence of a strong bum-out-throwing wind.

I can't really comment on district 4, as I am lazy and don't know the area at all, but in 2006 Tilton was much more stronger for Kathy Sgambati than it was stronger for Lynch, relative to the district as a whole. And though both Lynch and Sgambati won Laconia, it overperformed slightly for Lynch and underperformed slightly for Sgambati. Analytically, this is analogous to comparing Cook PVIs and finding hometown advantages, which are I think unsurprising.

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:18:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ps (0.00 / 0)

I love your signature!

One other thing: Tilton is, by my crude measurement, about 9 miles from Laconia. It's 17 1/2 miles from Milford to Peterborough. Alton, which dramatically underperformed for Sgambati relative to Lynch in 06, is much further away from Tilton.

Of course there is also noise in the data, and I don't even know how to go about putting error bars on the numbers to reflect that...

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:36:53 PM CDT

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Impressed. (4.00 / 1)

Thank you for your thoughtful response.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:41:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thank you (4.00 / 1)

I am often impressed by your knowledge and insight, and I am trying (in the fit of ill-temper that seems to have broken out lately) to remember to say these things! and that we are almost never so short, irritable, and uncompromising as we sound on the Internet.

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:47:11 PM CDT

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Oh yeah? (0.00 / 0)

we are almost never so short, irritable, and uncompromising as we sound on the Internet

Speak for yourself, jackass.

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by: Tim C. @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 22:17:08 PM CDT

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I would really like (0.00 / 0)

to somehow tease out a measurement of political intransigence on a geographic basis; Nate Silver had something like it in his Presidential model. I suspect that some towns are much harder in their partisan lean than others, and I wonder how one would go about teasing that out. (That is, Hypothetical Town A and Hypothetical Town B might be on average 60-40 Democratic towns, but Town A might be far more resistant to blowouts than Town B, and presumably also less likely to split its votes across different offices. I suppose party registration would have at least some correlation, perhaps? But that's affected by many other local factors as well, and confounded to some degree by national trends and demographic change....)

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 16:53:19 PM CDT

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Sounds Like A Fun Weekend Project (0.00 / 0)

Give me a day or two, Mormo.

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by: Andrew Sylvia @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 17:15:41 PM CDT

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heh (0.00 / 0)

good luck...I'm unconvinced of my ability to assemble a model that has any explanatory power—the data available may be insufficient to draw any statistically meaningful hypotheses out of them.

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by: Mormo @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 17:22:39 PM CDT

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Well... (0.00 / 0)

I have every town/ward broken down with a lengthy list of traits/histories/trends that give me the ability to dive into any district and make informed decisions. That said, I am certainly not going to post any of it on a blog or discuss it either. But I can assure you that all 24 state senate seats can be won with the right candidate and a strong campaign. I am absolutely convinced that we can win anywhere in New Hampshire.

Democrats solve problems, Republicans sit and say no.

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 18:55:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ray's Right, But There's One More Thing To Remember, Mormo (4.00 / 1)

And that's each district has intangibles that cannot be quantified, or cannot be quantified easily.

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by: Andrew Sylvia @ Thu May 28, 2009 at 19:13:10 PM CDT

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Data's Ready, Mormo (0.00 / 0)

One thing I want to ask everybody first though.  

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by: Andrew Sylvia @ Sat May 30, 2009 at 16:35:14 PM CDT

you sound productive! (0.00 / 0)

unlike me, mostly...thanks!

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by: Mormo @ Sat May 30, 2009 at 23:30:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]