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NH-02: Team Swett Claims 20 Point Lead in Internal Poll

by: Dean Barker

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 05:39:52 AM EST


Kevin Landrigan puts at the bottom of his column a remarkable statement from Team Swett, apparently in an effort to brush back rumors that Katrina Swett is thinking about dropping out from consideration:
[Swett aide Megan] Coffman confided the group's own internal polling showed her name recognition had doubled and that she was beating Democratic primary rival Anne McLane Kuster by 20 percentage points. When positive and negative messages were tested against both of them, Swett's lead grew, their camp claimed.

...The respected Quinlan, Greenberg, Rosner firm did the Oct. 20-22 survey.

Tangentially related to that, can I just say how annoying it is to have poll questions reinforce FOXNews style narratives about Democrats?
Asked about Swett's campaign mantra that the Democrats need to field a moderate, not tax-and-spend nominee to hold onto the seat, Coffman said 75 percent of Democrats in the poll agreed.
Although that's Landrigan's description of it (itself telling); I wonder how the actual question read.
Dean Barker :: NH-02: Team Swett Claims 20 Point Lead in Internal Poll
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One factor I assume Swett is weighing - (4.00 / 1)
given that she positions herself to the right of other Dem candidates.

The 2010 Democratic primary will have very few independents participating. The contested race will be the Republican Senate contest, with lots of money spent on it. As of today it looks like Lynch and Hodes will have no serious opposition.

Independents who like to play the field will flock to the pink ballot to vote against or for Ayotte. The blue ballot will have a higher percentage of "true believers."


"Assume" (and other definitions) (0.00 / 0)
I don't want to comment on a poll that I have not been able to analyze, but we should all be careful about assuming that Katrina Swett will campaign to the right of anyone.  "Moderate" can mean many things.  Having worked as Katrina's Policy and Research Director in her 2002 campaign, its meaning for her back then included:

* Strong support for a comprehensive health care reform plan
* Strong support for closing corporate tax loopholes, including those that allow companies to incorporate overseas to avoid US taxes
* Strong support for climate change legislation, green energy, and environmental safeguards
* Strong support for federal initiatives to improve access to higher education, including significant Pell Grant and direct student loan expansion
* Strong support for the priorities of organized labor, including (but not limited to) an increase in the minimum wage and an expansion of the Family and Medical Leave Act
* And much more. . .

No doubt that Katrina will provide more information if and when she announces her candidacy.  And, if we're lucky enough to have a Katrina vs. Annie vs. John primary, we'll have three strong candidates prepared to kick Charlie's ass.

Note: I am not employed -- or authorized to speak on behalf of -- any political candidate.


[ Parent ]
If she is indeed urging Dems to nominate a "moderate" (0.00 / 0)
and given Landrigan, I admit that is an "if," she is deliberately running to the right of the field. Maybe just 2% further right, maybe still left of center. But that position means, you are running on the right.

And that wasn't my assumption. My assumption was strictly about her internal calculations on whether to run. Her position on the political spectrum seems clear to me.


[ Parent ]
And I should add - (0.00 / 0)
Her position on the political spectrum, as I see it, in no way makes her someone I wouldn't support.  

[ Parent ]
NOmentum (0.00 / 0)
Blogging from back in the day.

Nozell, rhymes with Oh Hell

Katrina Swett (ran for congress a couple years back) had a question/comment about 'why vote for joe' - Basically need someone who can work the middle of the party and attract Democratic leaning independents so he can win next year. Someone that the Republicans can't characterize as not in keeping with the main stream social issues, not strong on defense and eager to raise taxes. Lieberman agreed that can't/shouldn't let the Republicans to portay as anti-religion, anti-family values.


"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

That's legitimate, Jack. But a little misleading. (4.00 / 3)
This is fair game, my friend.  But you should be more consistent as you share information:

* If you're going to criticize Katrina Swett for supporting Lieberman in '04 -- before he became a total GOP-supporting, health care-opposing whack job -- you also must hold other Democrats to the same standard (including, you know, our progressive party chair).

* As you well know, Katrina repudiated Joe Lieberman pretty thoroughly in 2007, in a response first released on Blue Hampshire.

* There's nothing inconsistent about being a budget-conscious liberal -- one who opposes tax increases on working families, and supports spending cuts in areas like agribusiness subsidies and unnecessary weapons systems.  I count myself in that group, and I have no doubt that many of you are, too.


[ Parent ]
Collateralizing (0.00 / 0)
One of your best rhetorical devices is spreading the discussion out to include abutting parties or as I call it, collateralizing.

We all know Raymond supported Lieberman and it is fair to bust his chops, too. When Ray decides to grab for the brass ring of national office, it will surely come up. Until then, I'll view his judgment based on the role(s) he currently fills.

With regards to "repudiation," I want to state that imo there is no equivalency between Katrina's level of support for JL in 2004 and, let's say, Bresler's support of JRE in 2007.

When one of the state's political mucky-mucks gives an endorsement for President, there is an assumption of "due diligence." Now, I'll give you that Joe may have soured over time, but even then, was he really the one for her? Did his candidacy speak to her "inner Democrat?" On his best day, Lieberman Version 2004 was shabby. I was a Wes Clark guy. I'll admit my bias for the uniform. What drew Katrina to Lieberman? I mean, Yikes!

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden


[ Parent ]
Response (4.00 / 1)
I was a Wes Clark guy. I'll admit my bias for the uniform. What drew Katrina to Lieberman? I mean, Yikes!

Could have been what drew Al Gore to Lieberman.  I don't know.  Lieberman changed a lot in the past five years.  A lot.

For the record, I found Lieberman a thoroughly unappealing candidate in 2004, and supported Edwards instead.


[ Parent ]
"drew Al Gore to Lieberman"? (0.00 / 0)
So you, a wizened political staffer type, want to convey to me, an upstart hopemonger from the land North of Curley/Bulger Boston, that Gore was "drawn" to Lieberman.

How quaint.

 

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden


[ Parent ]
Wizened??? (4.00 / 3)
C'mon Jack.  Do I really look THAT old?

[ Parent ]
Agreed (4.00 / 1)
I would put myself in that budget-concious category. Deficits matter, and corporate welfare, i.e. agribusiness subsidies, is one of my biggest beefs, as it were.  

"... the milkman left me a note yesterday: Get out of this town by noon, you're coming on way too soon, and besides that we never liked you any way." -- John Prine  

[ Parent ]
Link? (0.00 / 0)
* As you well know, Katrina repudiated Joe Lieberman pretty thoroughly in 2007, in a response first released on Blue Hampshire.

I'm not disputing this, but I don't remember it and would appreciate a link.


[ Parent ]
As a package deal (0.00 / 0)
. . . you also get a little two-year-old Elwood-DD spat in the replies (just for fun)

[ Parent ]
Behold this stinging repudiation (4.00 / 1)
"Thanks for getting in touch through the website. We are always eager to know what is on the minds of voters out there; it helps us ensure that we're running a campaign for the people of New Hampshire.

I have known Joe Lieberman for a long time and, while he is a friend of mine, I certainly do not agree with him on a lot of issues - especially Iraq. I do find myself disagreeing with him more and more frequently these days.  This doesn't change the fact that we are friends, but it does change my support of him as a politician.  

Thanks again for getting in touch."

OK, she repudiated her support of him as a politican. Is that the most public she got?



[ Parent ]
No (4.00 / 5)
Katrina also TPed his house and kicked him in the nuts.  

Seriously, Katrina's comments were reported throughout New Hampshire.  I'm not sure how much more clear she could have been in asserting her strong disagreements with Lieberman.


[ Parent ]
I do not claim an infallible memory (0.00 / 0)
I'm wizened.

Maybe she's just polite.


[ Parent ]
You're having fun (0.00 / 0)
A 4 for humor!

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

[ Parent ]
seriously (4.00 / 2)
There are Jewish CT Democratic voters I know and love who Never liked Joe Lieberman, who voted for Lowell Weicker, and supported Ned Lamont. Joe has Always been a moralizing prig. Having supported him at all, is to them(Mom?)a prima facie reason to withhold support. On a National level where folks don't understand the grassroots small bore nature of NH politics...having supported Joe at all is enough to be disliked and avoided. That is a fact. And to those folks who now feel they were right from the get go about him, there's no explaining necessary. They are not looking for a moderate replacement for Paul Hodes. They want a 2nd District Progressive like Ann Kuster.

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
So far it's just a poll, not an attack, (0.00 / 0)
But if it gets that far, I don't respect a Democratic candidate who uses the phrase "tax-and-spend".

--
Twitter: @DougLindner


Who Needs Republicans? (0.00 / 0)
A Democrat calling another Democrat "tax and spend?"

The general public has truly tired of that dusty old broken record they've heard for decades from the Republicans. Now we have a Democrat reinforcing it?

Might as well skip the middleman; why not just endorse the Republican?

If this report is true, someone's really gone through the looking glass.

No'm Sayn?


Burt, I'm Curious. . . . (0.00 / 0)
A Democrat calling another Democrat "tax and spend?"

Who do you define as "another Democrat"?  Do you know something the rest of us don't?


[ Parent ]
As Dean said ... (4.00 / 2)
This is Landrigan's interpretation of the poll question, Burt.  Instead of so quickly prejudging and pouncing on a prospective candidate from another congressional district, let's let the campaign play out!

[ Parent ]
Tribal Much? (4.00 / 2)
Chris,
I can't let this stand:
pouncing on a prospective candidate from another congressional district,

Aside from the obvious point that Reps pass laws that govern ALL of us, it is just silly to try to push Burt or me from Lowell or DD for that matter, into some parochial box.

I'm gonna wince at half the shit Burt blogs, but your gonna have to work on your dismissal rhetoric.

PS. This IS the campaign playing out. Welcome to the wild world of layman/activist punditry. We luvs us some politics up in here.

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden


[ Parent ]
No quote marks guys... (4.00 / 2)
When I read the line "tax and spend Democrat" I immediately noted the absence of quote marks. I believe that those are Kevin's words not Meagan's.


Have you told a stranger today about Bill O'Brien and his Tea Party agenda? The people of NH deserve to hear about O'Brien  and his majority committed to destroying New Hampshire and remaking it into a armed survivalist preserve.  

Exactly the Point (4.00 / 1)
Quote marks are very important, as we know from the Portsmouth Herald's irresponsibility.

That's why I brought up the point.

I would hope no Democrat would use that phrase about any other Democrat!  

No'm Sayn?


[ Parent ]
Turn it down a notch, Team Kuster (0.00 / 0)
"We're better than you, we're smarter than you, and dog gone it, people love us" is not endearing yourself to a lot of activists.


America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand. -Harry Truman

I wouldn't use those words (4.00 / 5)
Aside from Burt's false insinuation that Katrina referred to Annie as a "tax and spend" liberal, this discussion has been above board. No cheap shots.

I think the Lieberman questions are legitimate -- and ones for which there are very good answers, both in Katrina's strong progressive issue positions as well as her repudiation of the "New" Lieberman.  No doubt Jack and others will see this during the course of the campaign, should Katrina choose to run.


[ Parent ]
What Is This: Pounce on Burt? (0.00 / 0)
Man, you do have an active imagination:

Allegedly my "insinuation that Katrina referred to Annie as a "tax and spend" liberal"

Re-read what I said, DD.

Here's what I said: "I would hope no Democrat would use that phrase about any other Democrat!"

None has (to my knowledge) and hopefully none will.

Get it right DD.

No'm Sayn?


[ Parent ]
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on this one, Burt (4.00 / 2)
. . . but since you previously attacked Katrina for running a foundation that advocates on behalf of Chinese dissidents (among others), and you slammed Jeanne Shaheen for signing "my gay rights bill" into law, you'll have to excuse my assumption.

[ Parent ]
Burt, it doesn't take an imaginaton... (4.00 / 1)
Without your last sentence it is a powerful indictment. Read it without your ending disclaimer:

Who Needs Republicans? (0.00 / 0)
A Democrat calling another Democrat "tax and spend?"
The general public has truly tired of that dusty old broken record they've heard for decades from the Republicans. Now we have a Democrat reinforcing it?

Might as well skip the middleman; why not just endorse the Republican?



Have you told a stranger today about Bill O'Brien and his Tea Party agenda? The people of NH deserve to hear about O'Brien  and his majority committed to destroying New Hampshire and remaking it into a armed survivalist preserve.  


[ Parent ]
I would use the words (4.00 / 1)
Yankee Dominance Epic Year  

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
Hey, Homer (4.00 / 1)
"I made you a special cake to ruin." -- Marge Simpson


[ Parent ]
You asked for it, Emperor (0.00 / 0)
You have to keep baiting me. :). . . . This is your hero, courtesy of Peter King:

New York Post A-Rod passage of the week: The paper on Saturday wrote that US Weekly found an ex-flame who said Rodriguez had two paintings of himself as a centaur -- man from the waist up, horse from the waist down -- in his bedroom at home.

Oh, and he also maxed out to the George W. Bush for President Campaign.

Oh, and he also took anabolic steroids for many years, undermining the legitimacy of some of baseball's most sacred records.

The Yankees may win tonight.  (Although it's worth noting that they've blown 3-1 -- and 3-0 -- leads before.)  But rooting for this guy must grate against your soul.


[ Parent ]
not one iota (4.00 / 1)
it is far outweighed by how you feel and how that must make me feel.You'll have the winter to ponder what went wrong with the Sox, and I to struggle with my inner guilt for winning.  

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
NHDP Fundraising Strategy (4.00 / 3)
JB, if you have any paintings of yourself as a centaur, please let us know.  We could sell them and cover the NHDP's operating budget for the next decade.

[ Parent ]
Let baseball be baseball. (4.00 / 1)
Your imagery is tres bizzare. Enough of the politics of personal destruction. Either honor the victor or prepare to die.

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
Glad to know... (4.00 / 1)
That you bow to the Red Army hockey team, too, the winningest major sports team ever! 32 championships out of 46 total seasons the league existed is pretty tough to beat, not to mention dominating the European Cup.

Your Steelers-worship is pretty amazing, too, seeing as how they've got more Super Bowl rings than any other team. Honor the victor!

Only the left protects anyone's rights.


[ Parent ]
we who are about to die salute you ! n/t (0.00 / 0)


Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
Inner guilt for winning (4.00 / 1)
Now you're going back to politics.

[ Parent ]
that's what I'm talking 'bout n/t (4.00 / 1)


Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience. ~ Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
"a lot of activists" (4.00 / 2)
"a lot of activists" will resist the obvious. You summed it up pretty good. :v)

"a lot of activists" are endeared to a hard working candidate that comes to their community and listens to their issues and concerns, face to face, as Annie has done since the spring of this year. "a lot of activists" are rallying to Annie's candidacy, as they see a person deeply connected to them and their state.

"a lot of activists" support John DeJoie.

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden


[ Parent ]
a lot of activists (4.00 / 4)
are glad they live in NH CD 1.  

[ Parent ]
Glad? I am elated! (4.00 / 3)
I could not possibly be more proud of the work and accomplishments that Carol has achieved for the veterans, workers and families of CD 1. I would not trade her for anyone.

Have you told a stranger today about Bill O'Brien and his Tea Party agenda? The people of NH deserve to hear about O'Brien  and his majority committed to destroying New Hampshire and remaking it into a armed survivalist preserve.  

[ Parent ]
the name (0.00 / 0)
Swett may have id recognition, but it is not all that good in CD2 where the votes are going to be.

As for DeJoie & Kuster (0.00 / 0)
I don't recall either Ann Kuster or John DeJoie positioning themselves as "tax and spend liberals." Nor have they positioned themselves as "extremists" or "radicals."  All Swett's polling seems to prove is that Democrats approve of a generic "moderate" candidate--- although given the weak performance by Congressional moderates during the health care reform debate, if I was polled I would probably be one of the 25% who opted for the generic tax and spend liberal.


sitting state rep: running for re-election in 2012.


"Moderate" (4.00 / 2)
All Swett's polling seems to prove is that Democrats approve of a generic "moderate" candidate--- although given the weak performance by Congressional moderates during the health care reform debate, if I was polled I would probably be one of the 25% who opted for the generic tax and spend liberal.

Ed. Note: My thoughts below also apply to Elwood's similarly-themed comments at the top of this diary.

Tim, don't put much stake in labels.  Katrina is a pro-health care reform, pro-labor, pro-environment, pro-economic fairness, and passionately pro-human rights activist.  She has been as long as I have known her.  

Terms like "moderate" and "progressive" mean very little, as they can only be defined with a staggering level of ambiguity.  And they're VERY easy to hide behind.  Case in point:  In all the diaries about this race during the past six months, no one has identified a single policy issue separating Kuster, Swett, and DeJoie.  Not a one.  (I checked.)

Why does Katrina use the term "moderate" when her record is almost unimpeachably progressive?  Perhaps, in her eyes, the term means something different than a feeble waystation to right-wing injustices.  I think this is true.  It certainly was with her husband.

When I went to work on "moderate" Dick Swett's Senate campaign 14 years ago, the first thing I did was review all 2000+ votes he case in his two House of Representative terms.  To my astonishment, I found only 6 with which I didn't agree.  How could this be?  I was a far left college student, he was a proud Blue Dog.

But as I got to know Dick, I realized that he didn't see "moderate" in terms of policy -- it never stopped him from co-sponsoring the Clinton Health Security Plan in a district that hadn't elected a Democrat since 1912, nor did it keep him from writing green energy legislation, backing federal funding for the arts, or standing up to the NRA -- but rather as a reflection of (a) his reluctance to follow orders from party leaders, and (b) his efforts to work with both Democrats and Republicans to cut wasteful spending, and to implement congressional reforms.  Dick's progressive instincts were not off.  His terminology was just different.

Bottom line: Let's allow these candidates (and prospective candidates) to state their platforms and policies.  Let's give them a forum to explain how they would make a difference in Congress.  And let's be very careful about hiding behind terminology that tells us absolutely nothing about these people and their principles.


[ Parent ]
Fair Enough (0.00 / 0)
Platforms and policies it is:
Ann McLane Kuster on Afghanistan
by: Colin Van Ostern
Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 13:48:43 PM EDT

If internal polls are now the rage, any guess on how long until we see a formal statement?

DD, you have recounted many statements of historical facts regarding Swett's views. However, NH voters may like a taste of the modern candidate's views. Actually, they are asking specific questions.

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden


[ Parent ]
I'm sure that there will be ample opportunity. . . . (0.00 / 0)
The election is ten months off.  While I respect the opinions of those who feel that candidates must make a decision immediately, I have no doubt that Katrina will give you (and everyone else) many opportunities to pose questions if she takes the plunge.

The only candidate forum that has been documented on this site was the New London event last May.  Katrina attended (video was posted here), as did John and Mark Fernald.  Annie could not attend -- certainly don't fault her for that, and no doubt all of these candidates will have the chance to exchange views as time goes on.


[ Parent ]
You keep saying (0.00 / 0)
First..touche!

You keep saying "if." I know you mean to say that you aren't privy to her process, but something is odd. Not you, but the whole "if."

The foot dragging on getting in. She's in enough to keep us talking about her. She is in enough to get internal polls. But she ain't in.

What gives? This is not an IF. This is a WHEN: "Katrina continues to travel the district, and we have begun to lay the groundwork for a well-funded and professional campaign." (Coffman)

What has her stuck? Annie or John? Nah. I don't think so. She is losing ground in the CD2 race. What is worth the wait?


"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden


[ Parent ]
Wish the Swett campaign would get on BH officially (0.00 / 0)
I've made the comment a couple of times directly that I really want to see somebody (officially) on Katrina's team get on BH and start participating. If Katrina Swett posted a diary explicitly condemning Holy Joe's stance on health care reform and calling for his ouster from the Democratic caucus and stripping him of his chair, she could make some pretty clear points about where she stands on the Lieberman issue now. The longer she holds back and doesn't commit to the race and doesn't work on engaging the online community, the harder it's going to be for her to get going.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

It seems only Kuster's supporters have a vocal presence on BH (0.00 / 0)
Although to his credit, DeJoie does post himself every once in a while, and did so before he started running for Congress.

(For the record, I haven't taken sides in this; I'm voting for Carol Shea-Porter.)

--
Twitter: @DougLindner


[ Parent ]

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