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Republican Status: Not Just for the UL Anymore

by: Dean Barker

Sun May 02, 2010 at 08:53:20 AM EDT
Exhibit A (with my edits in bold and red) of why the magic spell Andy Smith casts over the state media is so corrosive:
Though most voters have not decided whom to support in the fall elections, a new WMUR Granite State poll shows the GOP with a significant lead in all two of the three national races if Kelly Ayotte and Charlie Bass are the GOP nominees.

...Ayotte would beat Hodes today by a 47-32 margin if you forget about undecided voters, and has taken the lead from Hodes among independents. Hodes's popularity is declining, despite having spent $1.3 million campaigning, according to a made up number by the chairman of the opposing political party. According to the poll, Ayotte is "better known than Hodes and better liked."

...All four Republicans - Frank Guinta, Rich Ashooh, Sean Mahoney and Bob Bestani - hold slight leads over Shea-Porter. For Guinta and Mahoney, this represents a significant drop from their numbers against her just two months ago.

...In the 2nd District, the poll shows Republican Charlie Bass easily beating Democrats Katrina Swett and Ann McLane Kuster. However, Bass' favorability plummeted a startling 12 points, while his unfavorability rose.

Republican Jennifer Horn would beat Swett 35-31 percent, and Kuster 33-32.The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percent for the senate race, and 6.1 percent for the congressional races.

Maybe it's a good thing the Monitor has gone behind a pay "curtain."
Dean Barker :: Republican Status: Not Just for the UL Anymore
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Republican Status: Not Just for the UL Anymore | 5 comments
We can hope (0.00 / 0)
the Rs think this poll is something to rely on.  
Grassroots, baby, grassroots!

We believe in prosperity & opportunity, strong communities, healthy families, great schools, investing in our future and leading the world by example. We are Democrats; we are the change you're looking for.
No worries there (0.00 / 0)
All the Republicans I know think Rasmussen is a reliable poll.  I'm sure they're stupid enough to believe this one, too.
That finger in the wind assumes a tumbleweed electorate. (4.00 / 2)
It's May 2nd.  Republicans might win this November, but if they do, it won't be because no news breaks, no money is spent, no heavy-hitters go on the stump, no undecideds decide, and no opinions are changed in the six months between now and the election.

--
Hope 2012

@DougLindner

I have a good friend who's an avid bird watcher. However, she (0.00 / 0)
needs to have a spotter to point them out to her because she can't see a bird unless someone tells her where to look.  It helps if the bird doesn't move.  
C'mon ... (0.00 / 0)
Even if the polling data showed all the Dems leading, the undecideds would not be in the lead of the story. It would be buried in the back or not mentioned at all, like most poll stories. Don't make things up.

That said, there have been a number of polls, five or six at this point, I think, that show Ayotte leading Hodes. While it is still very early, this has been consistent.

I would be a bit concerned about Shea Porter. I know a few indies who worked on her effort and donated money in 2006 and 2008 who were extremely disappointed in how the health care town meetings were handled and how their concerns about the bill were not even listened to at all by her office. Their main concern - as was mine - is the issue of mandatory insurance purchases. While it is a number of years away, this is the first time in recorded American history where the federal government has approved of something that would force its citizens to subsidize for-profit corporations. If this law was in effect back when I was out of work in 2007, and had to drop my crappy Anthem plan because the savings I was using to buy insurance ran out, I would have been fined.
As well, if I didn't have an employer plan now, and was still buying the crappy Anthem plan, it would cost us about $1,200 a month right now for us (family of four) or, nearly half my gross salary. In other words, Obamacare in 2014 would potentially bankrupt or fine us. This is, frankly, intolerable.  
While die hard Dems might not be mad about this, a lot of other folks are.

With the NH CD 2, it's hard to take the poll that seriously at this point. Swett hasn't really been running. Any free-thinking voter who has met Horn and seen her walking around in her clicky heals can tell what a lightweight she is. Bass, however, is the wild card. If he wins the nomination, and he probably will, and he runs a strong effort, he might have a serious shot at regaining the seat.  

Politizine.com

Republican Status: Not Just for the UL Anymore | 5 comments

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