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I agree, with a caveat (4.00 / 1)
Even someone who threads the needle on the first few states (especially NH, I say with no NH bias ... well, maybe a little) will need to have $20-$30 million raised, I think, to avoid being swamped. They won't be able to go on the air strong in all the states, but they'll need to do the minimum of organization-building and buy basic paid media in the big markets. That would create a situation where they'd be able to combine their paid media with the massive earned media they'd get with a victory to be at parity with the Obama/Clinton machines, but with momentum and a "fresh face" image and a greater chunk of their message in earned media (which is way better than paid media).

It's a tough row to hoe, but I think of all the second-tier and third-tier guys, Richardson's the only one with a realistic shot to do it. A better-than-expected Iowa, a win in NV, and a first or second in NH could put him on the road ... whether he can achieve those results or not is another question. But at least he has a base of support outside his state to tap into quickly (Hispanic voters).


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