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The new NPR Battleground Poll surveys voters in 70 of the country's most competitive congressional districts, including NH-01 and NH-02. The results illustrate the challenging political landscape Democrats will face in November.
The effort by individual campaigns will have to push against walls that seem very hard to move at this point. We tested Democratic and Republican arguments on the economy, health care, financial reform and the big picture for the 2010 election. The results consistently favored the Republicans and closely resembled the vote breakdown. Democrats are hurt by a combined lack of enthusiasm and an anti-incumbent tone. Among the other findings:
• 62 percent of Republicans in Democratic districts describe themselves as very enthusiastic about the upcoming election. That compares with 37 percent of Democrats in those same districts.
• By 57 to 37 percent, voters in these 60 Democratic seats believe that President Obama's economic policies have produced record deficits while failing to slow job losses - and not averted a crisis or laid a foundation for future growth.
• President Obama's approval rating is at 40 percent in the Democratic districts, but it [is] slightly better at 48 percent in the Republican districts where he outpaced John McCain in 2008.
The PA-12 special election proved that Democrats can win against these strong headwinds with a superior candidate, better strategy, and a strong grassroots effort. Our challenge is clear.
