Open Thread: Primary Predictions

A better night for Huntsman than Silver predicts... (4.00 / 1)

Romney 35%
Huntsman 18.5%
Paul 16.5%
Gingrich 15%
Santorum 10%
Perry 3%
Others 2%

 "The future is not something to be predicted, it's something to be achieved,"  unattributed aphorism

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by: susaninrindge @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 19:52:22 PM UTC

Huntsman in second (4.00 / 1)

Would be a very interesting story as would Mitt below 35%

Hope >> Fear





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by: Mike Hoefer @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 20:14:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is more or less (0.00 / 0)

where I'm at, though with Newt lower down and the top three with a bit more each.

Social Media Director for Jackie Cilley for Governor. Follow her on Twitter & Facebook!

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by: Dean Barker @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:44:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, I think you're right, Dean (0.00 / 0)

 "The future is not something to be predicted, it's something to be achieved,"  unattributed aphorism

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by: susaninrindge @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 12:37:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Guess Work (0.00 / 0)

Under first place, the polls are guesswork.  With nearly half the voters undecided, and a variant of 4 percent in the polls, and the heavy influence of ads these last two days, anything can happen.  There's too much storyline on "who's-on-first" and polls making the plot.

The guess I make in my list in a separate posting here yesterday is as good an estimate as any.

It is interesting to note though that Iowa was essentially irrelevant this year, as in 2008.  They had a very low turnout of 122,000 Republians out of about 650,000; we'll have quarter of a million in a much smaller state, and 11 days influence before South Carolina.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 20:31:47 PM UTC

My Prediction (4.00 / 1)

Romney 33%
Huntsman 19%
Paul 18%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 12%
Perry 3%
Obama 2%
Others 2%
Bachman 1%

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by: Lenore Patton @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 21:03:40 PM UTC

Low Turnout (4.00 / 2)

I believe this will be a lower total turnout than 2004 and 1996.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 21:16:21 PM UTC

Republican Turnout (0.00 / 0)

The Iowa Republican turnout was low, about 122,000 of the 650,000 registered.  It was only about 3,000 more than 2008, and this time all the action was on the Republican side, and the candidates spent more than 4 years ago.

If the Republican turnout here, in a primary where most of the action is on their ballot and most of the money spent was to get them to vote, isn't substantially higher, then that tells us that, like in Iowa, the era of the Tea Party-Republican-Free State surge is over.  

I think it is.

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 21:52:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I predict I will start watching television again Wed. n/t (4.00 / 5)

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 21:41:17 PM UTC

I'll feel better about TV (4.00 / 1)

but I still won't be watching it.

November 2012
Hope for a return to sanity.

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by: GreyMike @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 00:52:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paul must be feeling the heat from Huntsman (4.00 / 3)

I just received a robocall from Rep. Seth Cohen trashing him.

"He's praised Barack Obama has a great leader, supported the TARP bailout, the individual mandate central to Obamacare, and said Barack Obama's failed stimulus package should have been even bigger. So this Tuesday, January 10th, don't squander your vote by supporting Jon Huntsman. Join me in voting for Ron Paul, the real constitutional conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. This call was authorized and paid for by the Ron Paul 2012 presidential campaign committee."

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 22:25:56 PM UTC

Seth Cohn robocalls? (4.00 / 7)

That's the best they can come up with?



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 00:33:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

ouchie n/t (0.00 / 0)

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:16:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are you on the DNC list? (0.00 / 0)

Robocalls are illegal under NH law if you're on the Do Not Call list.

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by: elwood @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:17:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really? (0.00 / 0)

I get a boatload. I got another interesting one (two actually) from the National Organization for Marriage. The first one (to my land-line) asked if I believed marriage was only between a man and a woman. I said "no," they thanked me and disconnected. On the second call (to my cell phone), I replied "yes" and was then treated to a long "vote for anyone-but-Paul" spiel.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:44:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes - discussion and links (0.00 / 0)

here.

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by: elwood @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 02:31:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who do we complain to? (4.00 / 1)

I would like to complain about receiving a Seth Cohn robocall for many reasons, but I'll stick with the fact that I'm on the Do Not Call List.

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by: dooper @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 04:43:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Call NHDP (4.00 / 1)

Please write down as much info as possible, including date of call, app. time, what was said, and call the NHDP. A complaint will be made to the AG's office.



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 10:25:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Ron Paul jumped the shark in the debates. (4.00 / 2)

He's been playing the role of the One Honest Man, bravely standing for what he believes in while others play politics.

But now he's slinging mud at other candidates instead of Nobly Staying Above the Fray. And he's being called a hypocrite by the other candidates on the stage - for example, for soliciting earmarks then voting against the bill that funds them. I think both will turn off the voters who were intrigued by him but not quite sure.

Maybe the strongest evidence that his second-place showing in in doubt, is him going negative. He's worried.

===
My bets:
1. Romney: 33%
2. Huntsman: 23%
3. Paul: 19%
4. Santorum: 12%
5. Gingrich: 8%
6. Perry: 4%
7. Writeins: 1%

Anybody wanna bet ten grand?

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by: elwood @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 22:59:24 PM UTC

who to vote for? (0.00 / 0)

Okay, I'm a progressive, new to NH, registered as undeclared. I'm assuming Romney will eventually win the Gop nomination. Who should I vote for in the primary to cause Romney to spend the most money during the remaining primaries? Santorum (and Gingrich) seem to be flaming out quickly, Ron Paul is reportedly gaining ground (but I'd really hate it if he was the nominee) and Huntsman is now predicted for third place, but will likely not do well in SC. Suggestions?

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by: Turnbill @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 23:00:38 PM UTC

Options to consider: (4.00 / 4)

1. Take a blue ballot and vote for Obama (or Vermin Supreme, if you prefer). It's the most effective "None of the above". It helps establish a media narrative of Dems gaining strength. And it has the advantage, however much weight you give it, of being honest.

2. I don't think Santorum is flaming out quickly - though he will do very poorly here, he'll recover in South Carolina. The better he does, the more likely a fusion ticket (my guess: Romney/Huckabee). If you think that's weaker, go ahead and vote Santorum. If you think it might strengthen Romney (I do) be careful.

3. Gingrich IS flaming out, but he's a nasty SOB whose dying acts will be attacks on Romney. But the better he does, the more it strengthens New Hampshire's worst institutions: the Union Leader and the House Speaker.

(You can probably tell I'm not a big fan of "strategic voting".)

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by: elwood @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 23:10:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm voting for OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (4.00 / 3)

All the way everyday.  

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by: mevansnh @ Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 23:16:20 PM UTC

3 cents (0.00 / 0)

We all remember the shock of just four years ago, when Obama was more than ten points ahead of Clinton.

Now Mitt has happily endorsed an expectations game.
Nowhere is there enthusiasm for Willard. But he'll still win around 35% and have a comfortable enough margin over second place to quite possibly lock up the nomination.

Amazing how the media has declared a Huntsman surge, and so the people follow. He may well edge out the deeply dedicated Paul People by pulling from undeclareds.

It will bring me (and you) great glee to watch Gingrich do down. He will. Santorum is zip here, but wacky confederate South Carolina may keep him alive, which certainly helps the president.

Why do we keep having these struggles between the North and the South as to which nation dominates central government?  

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:21:27 AM UTC

had to dig up this shot I knew I had in storage (4.00 / 1)

Hope >> Fear





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by: Mike Hoefer @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 01:59:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

March 12, 1968: about 9 AM (4.00 / 3)

Lyndon Johnson tells reporters, "A little after midnight Bird shook me awake. 'Oh, Lyndon,' she told me, 'Dixville Notch, New Hampshire has voted for Eugene McCarthy over you - three votes to two!'

'Have courage, Bird,' I told her. 'It's always darkest, just before the dawn.' "

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by: elwood @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 03:09:00 AM UTC

Rick Santorum's sweater vest: (4.00 / 1)

Let's recognize it for what it is: unilateral disarmament.

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by: elwood @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 03:40:21 AM UTC

Mitt 35-37 (0.00 / 0)

Huntsman will reach double-digits, but he hasn't really emerged as the alternative, so Paul and Santorum will finish in the upper teens each.

Newt will be the big loser, either fourth or fifth.

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by: JimC @ Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 04:00:10 AM UTC