Open Thread: And the Winner Is...

"Exit polls indicate that 62% of Perry voters (4.00 / 4)

though that they were voting for the lead guitarist of Aerosmith, a band with roots in the state."

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by: elwood @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 01:41:59 AM UTC

and another 23% thought they were voting for the former lead singer of Journey n/t (4.00 / 2)

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by: dooper @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:25:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH First-In-The-Nation 2016 (0.00 / 0)

I'd enjoy seeing Jon Huntsman do well, since he spent so much time in New Hampshire.  It will tell candidates in 2016 that just as John McCain did in 2008, spending more time here in a "real" election rather than "Iowa's straw poll" is more valuable and is time well-spent.  

Mitt Romney did poorly with his percentage.  All that money.  "Living" here.  Being a neighbor for years.  Being ahead for so long.  Having run before.  He's a wipeout.  

And we now know why the voters of his own state turned Rick Mr. Gay Basher Santorum out as their U.S. Senator in 2006 with barely more than 40% of the vote.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 02:07:18 AM UTC

Tight race between Perry and Roemer. (4.00 / 3)

Governor Perry has dropped far below the threshold for appearing in debates.

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by: elwood @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 02:15:39 AM UTC

The big story appears to be: a big drop in turnout. (4.00 / 4)

The Republican turnout in 2008 was 241,039.

They reached that number while competing for independent voters with a robust Democratic field including Obama and Clinton.

Today, with no competition, they seem to be on track to get about 200,000 - a drop of over 17%.

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by: elwood @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:11:18 AM UTC

voter suppression works n/t (0.00 / 0)

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 04:53:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops - I was wrong (morning update) (0.00 / 0)

Big precincts reported late. If the first 50% of the precincts held 50% of the vote, it would indeed have been a big drop in turnout.

But with 95% reporting this morning, the vote total on the GOP side is 241,071: a bit more than in 2008. And Romney gained about 27% more voters.

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by: elwood @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 11:25:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But You Were Right... (4.00 / 1)

...in that the Republican turnout has to be disappointing for their party's future expectations.  

Compared with Iowa, as usual the New Hampshire  turnout was steller -- but with almost all the "action" on the Republican side, they could barely match their turnout in 2008?  

The era of the Tea Party excitement has faded.  And the really most "conservative" and reactionary candidates -- O'Brien-backed Newt Gingrich and Anti-Gay Rick Santorum didn't even notch 10%?  That tells you something about their hopes for November.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 12:29:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's pretty damn good for a "non-contested primary" n/t (0.00 / 0)

"We start working to beat these guys right now." -Jed Bartlet

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by: cblodg @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:17:35 AM UTC

Adding - (4.00 / 2)

Romney got 75,676 votes in New Hampshire in 2008 (and lost). With the lower turnout this year, he appears to be on track to win without getting any net gain in votes.

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by: elwood @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:18:00 AM UTC

Cain Is Getting About 150 votes? (4.00 / 1)

Who are these people?  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:23:05 AM UTC

Bachmann got a couple hundred too (0.00 / 0)

Your question applies there too.

"We start working to beat these guys right now." -Jed Bartlet

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by: cblodg @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:34:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

People keep comparing Mitt's % tonight (4.00 / 1)

with what he got in 2008. That's apples and oranges.

Mitt 2012, the clear frontrunner with 2nd place Paul far behind him, is at 38%.

McCain 2008, frontrunner with a 2nd place Mitt on his heels, was at 38%.

Romney's numbers should be better than they are.

Social Media Director for Jackie Cilley for Governor. Follow her on Twitter & Facebook!

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by: Dean Barker @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 03:45:04 AM UTC

Rick Perry got less then half the votes that Kucinich got in 2008 in NH n/t (4.00 / 1)

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 12:17:48 PM UTC

Watch the green (4.00 / 3)

I think we Blues need to take a good look at that map and note that the strongest showings for Ron Paul -- all those green towns -- dominate in the 2nd Congressional District.

JillSH

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by: JillSH @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 17:03:55 PM UTC

I am concerned (0.00 / 0)

In 3 of the 4 towns in my state house district--Hillsborough 1--Paul beat Mitt.

Can anyone tell me what you think this means for November and the NH house?

You have not converted a man because you have silenced him.  (John Morley, 1838-1923)

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by: Marjorie Porter @ Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 23:39:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not much. (0.00 / 0)

Paul won my ward, too.

At least here, I believe his strength was primarily based on his anti-war and civil liberties positions (while the voters ignored his Big Brother views on marriage equality and reproductive rights).

I don't think that support is transferable to many local Republicans - or to the likely GOP standard-bearer.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 00:35:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lots Of Votes In The Republican Tally... (0.00 / 0)

...are ours for an explanation and some education.  We have a job to do, but we can do it.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 00:38:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What it Means? (0.00 / 0)

My guess is that sincerity and courage counts, and taking a stand for freedom from excessive government intrusion. And I would guess, hardly certain mind you, that people are sick of the stupid drug war. But watch the mainstream republicans running for governor trying to "out-tough" each other.

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 20:16:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Happy Returns, Sort Of (0.00 / 0)

I'm no "fan" of Newt Gingrich, but I'm so happy he edged out Rick Santorum for 4th place -- by just 49 votes.  And neither got to 10%.  Both are homophobes, but Santorum bashes us any time he can, and that's a difference.  

And Mitt Romney wasn't able to get to 40%?  Neighbor.  All that money.  Endorsements.  Ran before.  Lives here?  Not 40%?  

The Republican turnout, a notch above 2008, was driven by lots of undeclared deciding to vote for Ron Paul or Jon Huntsman or Buddy Roemer.  They're ours if we do our job in November.  

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by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 00:42:29 AM UTC