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This is a simple point but perhaps too easy to miss.
The purpose of voter fraud is: to change the result of an election. It is not:to cast a couple of illegal votes. Just like the purpose of a bank robbery is: to get lots of money, not: to trespass on bank property.
Since the purpose of voter fraud is changing election results, we can grade schemes on a couple of factors:
How many votes can the fraud produce without being discovered?
How much does it cost per vote? (We already know that advertising and get-out-the-vote campaigns are effective uses of money - prove that the dollar I spend on fraud isn't better spent on them.)
O'Keefe answered both questions for us. You can cast somewhere between four and twelve votes without getting caught. Above that, and the odds are you will be discovered by a local poll worker or voter who knows the person whose vote you are stealing.
Now, sometimes a ten-vote margin WOULD tip an election. But, if that's your purpose, do you invest in fraud?
No. O'Keefe has a $50,000 budget for those ten votes - $5000 per vote. That pays for a lot of get-out-the-vote calls and radio ads and lawn signs - more than ten votes' worth.
The O'Keefe crime successfully demonstrated that voter fraud isn't cost-effective.
