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NH-01 Poll: Shea-Porter, Guinta TIED at 41%

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jan 19, 2012 at 19:30:44 PM EST
My how the worm has turned:
New Hampshire's U.S.  Rep. Frank Guinta is deadlocked in a potential rematch with the candidate he ousted in 2010, while U.S. Rep.  Charlie Bass has a narrow lead in a rematch, according to new polling data from Watchdog.org

In New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, Republican Guinta and Democrat Carol Shea-Porter each garner 41 percent support from likely voters.  Guinta, a former Mayor of Manchester, defeated Shea-Porter 54-42 percent in 2010.

Needless to say these are better numbers than were seen for all of the 2010 cycle. One big caveat - this is a Pulse Opinion Research poll, "an independent public opinion research firm that used automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports LLC." Yes...Rasmussen.

Still it's from 500 likely voters, and the MoE is +/-4.5%.

In the same poll, Annie Kuster trails the BassMaster 39-35.

If this poll is anywhere near accurate, it confirms my hunch that the first district will be more competitive than conventional wisdom says, and the second will be a bit harder to flip than everyone assumes.

Guinta can't hide from his campaign of illegal push polls, mystery money, advocating the elimination of Social Security, and wrapping himself up in Tea.  Career Villager Bass, on the other hand, is one of DC's best chameleons. He always knows which way the wind blows.

(find me > 140 on birch paper; on Twitter < 140)
Dean Barker :: NH-01 Poll: Shea-Porter, Guinta TIED at 41%
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NH-01 Poll: Shea-Porter, Guinta TIED at 41% | 6 comments
Go, Carol! (4.00 / 1)
7% for other candidates, 10% undecided.  Room to grow.  Frank has nowhere to go but down.  
CREW's Top 10 (0.00 / 0)
When it comes time to point out the record, being among the top 10 of the most corrupt members of Congress, should go a long way for  Bass and Guinta.

That they voted to make Medicare a voucher program should also affect their standing, IMHO.  

Ground Game (4.00 / 3)
When the numbers are neck and neck a committed ground game will make the difference.

Carol's grass root network is fully engaged.

That's a winning combination.

Let's all keep working hard to network for Democrats up and down the ticket. That helps Carol--that helps Obama and that will turn the tide on the nightmare we're enduring right now.

the worm is on the other foot n/t (4.00 / 1)


note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other
I believe we're seeing buyer's remorse (4.00 / 2)
I never understood why voters didn't believe Guinta when he said he would be laser-focused on the budget to the exclusion of the public good.  He meant that, and has proved it by his callous and party-line votes and cosponsored bills.  He has been a slavish adherent of the tea party.  Corruption (top 14 most corrupt legislator list), a history of slimy illegal campaigning -- he reminds me most of the unlamented Governor Benson.  And may his tenure be just as brief.
As We Saw During The Recent Primary... (4.00 / 1)
...polls taken this early on don't mean all that much.  It's the national mood that will motivate voters on November 6th.  

But it looks good for Democrats for a number of reasons.  While we can't believe in the polls, we can certainly believe in our potential candidates, and that the voters will say they've had enough "tea."

[I'm a former has-been House member and State Senator, but I keep "Rep." on my ID name for easy reference of previous posts.]

NH-01 Poll: Shea-Porter, Guinta TIED at 41% | 6 comments

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